Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 240536
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1235 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...
...TORNADO WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 4 AM...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING FROM THE TULSA METRO AREA DOWN
TO NEAR OKEMAH...WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE
EAST ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 69 CORRIDOR. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TULSA METRO.

A LIMITED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS AND FOR
ANY CELLS TO THE EAST OF THERE DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN MONDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINS
SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID ONSET FLASH FLOODING AND QUICK ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
SHOULD FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

THE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER A
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND TRACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY WORSEN
ANY ONGOING FLOOD PROBLEMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT WEEK WILL AGGRAVATE ANY
ONGOING LARGE STEM RIVER FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
RESPONSE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NEAR LARGER RIVER BASINS. LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

LACY









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