Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 291814
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM JULY 29/12UTC: UNDER INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA...A
TUTT OVER THE GULF WILL RETROGRESS TO THE EASTERN/CENTRAL STATES
OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO. OVER TAMAULIPAS-COAHUILA IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THEREAFTER. ON THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST STATES...THIS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM...INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON SUNDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE TO CLUSTER ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE OVER WESTERN MEXICO...TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA AND SINALOA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ON SUNDAY IT DECREASES TO 101-5MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

THE 250/500 HPA CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS TO
EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA-GULF TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN/NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONFINE TO THE GULF
AS A TUTT RETROGRESSES ACROSS CUBA/THE BAHAMAS. MID LEVEL
RIDGE...MEANWHILE...IS TO NEARLY COLLAPSE UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE
TUTT. LATER TODAY THE TUTT WILL EXTEND NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA/THE TURKS AND CAICOS.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE TUTT MEANDERS WEST ACROSS
JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA-SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...LIFTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. AS IT PULLS ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXPECTING ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND...TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT MOVES
ACROSS JAMAICA-CUBA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...TO SPREAD WEST ACROSS CUBA-THE CAYMAN ISLES.
OVER THE BAHAMAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WITH MOST INTENSE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH
THE ITCZ/NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA THIS WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ACROSS COSTA
RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND PANAMA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL    24    36    48    60    72    84    96      TYPE
43W       48W   53W   59W   64W   69W   74W   78W      TW
62W       67W   72W   77W   81W   84W   87W   90W      TW
67W       70W   74W   78W   82W   85W   87W   90W  TUTT INDUCED
88W       91W   93W   96W   99W  103W  106W  109W      EW
98W      100W   DISSIPATES                             EW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W SURGES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT IS TO PULL ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLES.
NOTE THAT THIS IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
SO THE WAVE WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL DURING MAX HEATING. AS A
RESULT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP...TO
TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY IT WILL PULL ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES TO PUERTO RICO TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS IS TO THEN SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. INTERACTION
WITH THE ITCZ/NET TO THE SOUTH IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GUIANAS ON SATURDAY TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ACROSS VENEZUELA...AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE NET...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W IS TO DAMPEN AS IT PULLS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER VENEZUELA. ACROSS WESTERN VENEZUELA THIS
WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WHILE OVER COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA TO
NICARAGUA THIS IS TO ALSO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

THE TUTT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN
THE EASTERLY TRADES AND TO THE NORTH OF 15N. AS IT PULLS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. OVER HISPANIOLA AND
THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS THIS WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ACROSS JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA THIS
IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM ON SATURDAY. OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON SATURDAY
TO SUNDAY...WHILE OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W PULLS ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA-SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...MEANWHILE FAVORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. ON THE
CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO IT IS TO INTERACT WITH A TUTT TO TRIGGER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.

WANING WAVE ALONG 98W WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST
MEXICO TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
CONTRERAS...IMN (COSTA RICA)
CASTILLO...UCR (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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