Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 011819
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

AT 15 UTC HURRICANE ANDRES CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 120.3W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 943 HPA.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5KT.

AT 15 UTC TROPICAL STORM BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 104.1W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 HPA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 4KT. SEE NHC BULLETIN FOR
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DISCUSSION FROM JUNE 01/12 UTC: HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN USA...WITH MID LEVEL AXIS TO
ANCHOR ON A MEANDERING HIGH OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. EAST OF THIS AXIS A LOW OVER KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE IN THE USA
EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO.
SHORT WAVE VORTICES ARE TO REVOLVE AROUND THIS TROUGH...LIFTING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN-WESTERN CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS. A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAXIMA IS TO ALSO ROUND THIS TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
GULF...WITH DIVERGENCE ON ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO VENT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO/YUCATAN EARLY IN THE
CYCLE... WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY AND THE BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE GULF/SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO IS INDUCING THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE PANAMANIAN
LOW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON A
SECONDARY AXIS IS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH
AXIS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA/SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORT
WAVE VORTICES/CYCLONIC MAXIMA SHEAR ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. DEEPENING LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO-SOUTHERN GUATEMALA-EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM TO CLUSTER ACROSS BELIZE-QUINTANA
ROO MEXICO. THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY IS TO WANE WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM TO CLUSTER ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS THEN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CAYMAN ISLES-CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA AT
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THIS AREA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM.
ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY HEAVY CONVECTION IS TO THEN AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. ACROSS CUBA IT GRADUALLY DECREASES TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.

AT 250 HPA THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA/SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...MEANWHILE...EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE USA. A TUTT TO THE
EAST SEPARATES THIS AXIS FROM THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC-EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...IT IS TO
DISPLACE THE TUTT EAST. LATER ON TUESDAY IT IS TO ALIGN ALONG
60W...WHERE IT IS TO THEN HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EVOLVING
PATTERN IS TO STRENGTHEN MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND THIS IS TO SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE INVERSION
WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS IT OVER WESTERN/INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. IN
THIS AREA LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECTING ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA-MARACAIBO
REGION IN VENEZUELA...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN VENEZUELA TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. OVER THE NORTHERN GUIANAS ITCZ
RELATED CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
51W      54W    58W    61W    65W    69W    72W    74W       EW

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 51W. THIS IS TO PULL ACROSS
SURINAME TO GUYANA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ACROSS EASTERN
VENEZUELA-WESTERN WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. LATER ON WEDNESDAY TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
COLOMBIA WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.

SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$





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