Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 041051
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
650 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 04/06
UTC: TUTT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
LIFTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ON ITS WAKE...A MID/UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN IS TO GRADUALLY ESTABLISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS TO THEN HOLD WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. SIMULTANEOUSLY...A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC/EASTERN USA TO CUBA-NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO STALL TO THE WEST...AND AS A RESULT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE TO REMAIN HOSTILE TO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

AT LOW LEVELS...DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH TO THE WEST IS TO PRESS
AGAINST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE HOLDS ITS
GROUND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO VEER FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE CYCLE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING CAP TO RESULT IN
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WORST ACROSS
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
IS TO BECOME MORE SPARSE AND LESS INTENSE...WITH LIGHT CONVECTION
TO THEN LIMIT TO THE CORDILLERA AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

CARDOS...SMN (MEXICO)
CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$





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