Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 031548
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 06 2015 - 12Z WED JUN 10 2015


THE ECMWF HAS BEEN LESS JUMPY THAN THE GFS WITH THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS OF THE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THE
LAST FEW DATA CYCLES. THE 00Z/03 ECMWF WAS PARTICULARLY WELL
CORRELATED WITH ITS ATTENDANT ENSEMBLE MEAN, MAKING IT AN
ATTRACTIVE CHOICE AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONE OF THE BIGGEST CAUTIONS WITH A DIRECT
INCORPORATION OF RECENT GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE INTO THE MANUAL BLEND IS
ITS VIGOROUS INJECTION OF TROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING
HURRICANE BLANCA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH THE POLAR FRONT THIS PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

CISCO

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