Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 011601
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 04 2016 - 12Z SAT OCT 08 2016

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

DANERGOUS HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN
NEAR 13.4N 73.4W AT 15 UTC. MATTHEW HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 946
MB AND PACKS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 150 KTS. THE
NHC FORECASTS A STARK NORTHWARD TRACK OUT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TO
THE BAHAMAS BY THU AND WPC SUBSEQUENTLY SHOWS A CONTINUING TRACK
UP OFF THE SE US NEXT FRI/SAT. THIS TRACK IS CLOSEST TO BY
SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 06 UTC GEFS...CONSISTENT WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL TRACK
AND SYSTEM INTERACTION UNCERTAINTY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
TROUGHING/WEAKNESSES ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND UP OVER
THE ERN US.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NOAM REMAINS
COMPLICATED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THPHOON CHABA OFF
JAPAN...ROBUST LEAD SYSTEMS IN THE BERING SEA...AND NERN PAC
ENERGY EMPHASIS CUTTING UNDERNEATH BLOCKY ALASKAN FLOW. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL OFFER A MORE COMPATABLE AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENT SOLUTION AMID ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY.

ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND
500 MB PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 06 UTC GEFS MEAN
AS MANUALLY ADJUSTED FOR MATTHEW.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

A MAIN FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US SHOULD FOCUS MOISTURE AND SOME
HEAVIER RAINS TUE/WED UNTIL BEST UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
DECREASING PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL THEN ERN US LATER NEXT WEEK. HOW
QUICKLY OR SLOWLY MATTHEW DEPARTS OR MEANDERS WILL AFFECT THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND ERN US.

SCHICHTEL

$$





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