Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 291556
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1155 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALID 12Z MON SEP 01 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 05 2014


STILL PREFER THE NAEFS MEAN OVER THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE FOR THE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. BOTH THE GEFS AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS--WHICH COMPRISE THE
NAEFS--REFLECT A MOST SUBSTANTIAL INFILTRATION OF CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DAYS 6 AND 7 THAN
THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE. ALL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
LATCH ONTO THE TENDENCY FOR PERSISTENT LOWER HEIGHTS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SINCE JULY 1.

THE PATTERN IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WET ONE FOR THE NATION. MOST OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MIDWEST. A SMALLER AREA OF VERY
WET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS, WHERE
MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM--PROGGED TO TRACK
INTO EASTERN MEXICO--WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY.


CISCO

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