Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 291557
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1156 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VALID 12Z MON AUG 01 2016 - 12Z FRI AUG 05 2016

...OVERVIEW...

PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL FEATURE TWO
CONSECUTIVE CLOSED LOWS LIFTING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A THIRD UPPER LOW
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE IT DIGS SOUTH
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE NEXT WEEK.  BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE AND BE REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL GENERALLY
STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S..  ALSO OF NOTE...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48.  A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE WPC
DAY 3-7 FORECAST.  HOWEVER...LESS WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN SINCE THEY APPEARED TO BE OUTLYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS LIFTING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
EVENTUALLY LEADS TO SLIGHTLY FLATTER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
NEXT FRIDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND 06Z GFS/GEFS.
ALSO...THE 00Z GFS WAS A WEAK OUTLIER WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY
LIFTING AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE 00Z UKMET/CMC.

GERHARDT


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. FLORIDA MAY SEE A
FAIRLY RAINY PERIOD AS WELL SHOULD A TROPICAL WAVE MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID-CONTINENT, CLOCKWISE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

FRACASSO

$$




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