Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 211231
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
730 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2018

VALID 00Z MON JAN 22 2018 - 00Z MON JAN 29 2018

GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES IN SHOWING A TRANSITIONAL FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FUEL
INCREASINGLY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SEEMS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE TO TRACK AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
MID-LATE WEEK AS LEAD TRADES VEER AND WEAKEN. A FAVORED GUIDANCE
COMPOSITE BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO THE ISLANDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS MAY COMBINE
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS.

SCHICHTEL

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