Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 251148
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
647 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

VALID 00Z FRI DEC 26 2014 - 00Z FRI JAN 02 2015

THE 25/00Z ECENS/GEFS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS LOOKED TO
BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 (31/00Z)---CONSIDERING THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE
SURFACE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNUSUALLY COOL/WET SENSIBLE
WEATHER PATTERN MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS---BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATES NORTHWARD ALONG
155W AND MAINTAINS WEAK TROUGHING AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE DETERMINISTIC 25/00Z ECMWF IS THE AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC
SOLUTION AFTER 48 HOURS---MAINTAINING ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW AT 500MB
INVOF 35N 156W. THIS SYSTEM IS REPLACED BY---YET ANOTHER
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH---MIGRATING ACROSS THE DATELINE ON SUNDAY AND
REACHING 155W NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE DAY 5-7...THE 25/00Z GEFS MEAN RESEMBLES THE ECENS
MEAN---BUT AS IS ITS BIAS---IS THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
RECOMMEND AN ECENS MEAN (2/3RDS) AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BLEND
(1/3RD) THROUGH DAY 7. THIS SHOULD CAPTURE THE KEY SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FEATURES IN THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC---AND THE SEQUENCING OF THE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITH THE FLOW.

VOJTESAK

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