Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 231910
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 23 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2017

TODAY`S MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.  A TROUGH IS PREDICTED WEST OF ALASKA, WHILE RIDGING IS
FORECAST OVER PARTS EASTERN ALASKA, EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN CANADA.
SOME OF TODAY`S MODELS ALSO EXTEND THE RIDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BROAD TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS.
TODAY`S MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND FAVORS TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH HAS
SHOWN HIGHER RECENT SKILL THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURE TOOLS INDICATE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF ALASKA. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN CONUS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE. THERE IS AN ENHANCED
LIKELIHOOD FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, CONSISTENT WITH AN AXIS OF
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED BY TODAY`S MODELS. PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE TOOLS ARE
IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AND FORECAST NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE LARGEST.
FORECAST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO LINGER FOR
PART OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA,
AND THE ALEUTIANS, DUE TO A PREDICTED STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGING FORECAST NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN CONUS, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS ARE FAVORING A
MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CONUS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
AND 30% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN YESTERDAY`S AND TODAY`S
TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2017

DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, MODELS PREDICT AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN, AS WELL AS A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN, RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER
ANOMALIES. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE
ALSO SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER
MOST OF ALASKA, RESULTING IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE. AS THE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S., EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AREA OF PREDICTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS SHIFTED EAST DURING THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING WEEK-2, ALONG WITH A FEW
DIFFERENCES. PRECIPITATION TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ALL
OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. AS THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND IN THE WESTERN U.S., NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING WEEK-2. AS THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD, SOME STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IS PREDICTED TO
AFFECT PARTS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, FAVORING NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THERE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL
18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 60% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO WEAK MEAN 500-HPA ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
DOMAIN AND SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE SURFACE SPECIFICATION TOOLS.

FORECASTER: MIKE C

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000626 - 19670701 - 19720701 - 20030604 - 19910705


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000625 - 20030605 - 19910705 - 19720702 - 19810624


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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