Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXSA20 KWBC 091650
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1149 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM FEB 09 AT 0000 UTC): AT 200 HPA SHOWS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHED FAR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
ARGENTINA/PARAGUAY. THE RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM SOUTHERN PERU
ACROSS SOUTHERN BOLIVIA...AND ANOTHER INTO SOUTHERN BRASIL. THE
CAVADO DO NORDESTE CENTERS OVER BAHIA AND EXTENDS AN AXIS TO THE
WEST INTO AMAZONAS IN BRASIL. STRONGEST CONVECTION IN SOUTH
AMERICA IS OCCURRING IN EASTERN PERU/ECUADOR WHERE A POOL OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS...IN MATO GROSSO/MGSUL WHERE A VENTILATION
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CAVADO IS INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND ALONG THE ALTIPLANO ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR SUR FORMING AT
50S 124W ALONG A 139KT MAXIMA AT 52S 120W...60S 110W...A 146KT
MAXIMA AT 63S 100W...A 142KT MAXIMA AT 63S 88W...63S 75W...66S
55W...EXITING AT 64S 43W. THE NORTHERN POLAR JET EXTENDS ALONG 48S
119W...56S 105W...59S 84W...EXITING AT 59S 66W. IT REFORMS AT 50S
51W ALONG 51S 45W...EXITING AT 54S 37W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET FORMS
AT 34S 103W ALONG 27S 98W...28S 89W...EXITING AT 31S 80W. IT
REFORMS AT 38S 71W EXITING AT 49S 40W.

AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH DOMINATES THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA WHILE
EXTENDING TO THE NORTH INTO THE MAGALLANES PROVINCE IN CHILE. TO
THE NORTHEAST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FALKLANDS/MALVINAS INTO THE SOUTHERN BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/LA
PAMPA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALSO FROM CONCEPCION IN CHILE TO THE
NORTHWEST INTO A LOW AT 35S 80W.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 962 HPA LOW AT 63S 77W EXTENDS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG 65S 82W..64S 73W...INTO A 974 HPA LOW AT 60S
72W...53S 72W...49S 83W. A 1025 HPA HIGH CENTERS AT 36S 93W. A 994
HPA LOW AT 50S 56W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG 43S 56W...40S 61W...A
1006 HPA LOW AT 40S 66W...38S 70W. A 1010 HPA LOW AT 38S 56W
EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG 34S 52W...31S 57W...27S 66W. STRONG
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.

ENRIQUEZ...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
LOPEZ...SMN (ARGENTINA)
GALVEZ/DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$




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