Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 172025
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VALID 00Z THU SEP 18 2014 - 00Z SAT SEP 20 2014

***ODILE ORDEAL FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY***

***FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.***

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE GULF COAST***


THE BIG THING MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ODILE.  THIS ONCE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS STEADILY WEAKENING, HOWEVER THERE IS A
PLETHORA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
ODILE TO CAUSE AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM EASTERN CALIFORNIA TO EXTREME
WESTERN TEXAS.  THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY BE HARDEST HIT WILL BE
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS NEAR THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA,
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS HELPING TO IGNITE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA, AND ANOTHER AREA OF CONCENTRATED
RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING.  SHOWERS ARE
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CLIPS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE U.S.  ELSEWHERE, A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH IS CONTROLLING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S., WITH MANY STATES ENJOYING QUALITY FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS.

D. HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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