Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 221956
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT SUN OCT 22 2017

VALID 00Z MON OCT 23 2017 - 00Z WED OCT 25 2017

...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE, A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, AND THE FRONT WILL HELP LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUNDAY NIGHT,
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BUT PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BY TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, CAUSING INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THERE AND IN THE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

RAINFALL THAT COULD BE HEAVY IN SOME AREAS WILL LINGER IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOIST AIR FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN, SO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
HAVE QUIETER WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A QUICKLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BEFORE
COMBINING WITH THE STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EAST
ON TUESDAY. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP CAUSE LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH WIND IS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND 100S FOR HIGHS WILL COMBINE
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE REST OF THE WEST WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS WELL,
WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS BY
TUESDAY.


TATE


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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