Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FONT12 KNHC 200247
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)

EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

AUGUSTA ME     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)

PORTLAND ME    34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)

CONCORD NH     34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)

PORTSMOUTH NH  34  3   3( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   3(15)   1(16)   1(17)

WORCESTER MA   34  5   3( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   3(18)   2(20)   1(21)

SPRINGFIELD MA 34  4   3( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   3(16)   2(18)   1(19)

BOSTON MA      34  5   5(10)   5(15)   2(17)   4(21)   2(23)   X(23)

HYANNIS MA     34 15  12(27)   8(35)   3(38)   5(43)   1(44)   1(45)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34 27  16(43)   7(50)   4(54)   4(58)   1(59)   1(60)
NANTUCKET MA   50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)

PROVIDENCE RI  34 10   7(17)   6(23)   2(25)   5(30)   1(31)   1(32)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  6   3( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   4(18)   3(21)   1(22)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  7   3(10)   3(13)   3(16)   4(20)   2(22)   1(23)

HARTFORD CT    34  5   3( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   3(17)   3(20)   X(20)

NEW LONDON CT  34 10   5(15)   5(20)   2(22)   5(27)   2(29)   1(30)

ALBANY NY      34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)

POUGHKEEPSIE   34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   1(13)

MONTAUK POINT  34 17   6(23)   5(28)   3(31)   5(36)   3(39)   1(40)

ISLIP NY       34  9   3(12)   3(15)   2(17)   5(22)   2(24)   2(26)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  6   2( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   4(16)   2(18)   2(20)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  5   2( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   3(14)   3(17)   2(19)

NEWARK NJ      34  4   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   2(16)

TRENTON NJ     34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   2(14)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  6   2( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   3(14)   3(17)   2(19)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)

PHILADELPHIA   34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   3(13)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   3(17)

BALTIMORE MD   34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)

DOVER DE       34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   4(10)   2(12)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)

WASHINGTON DC  34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   3(15)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   3(15)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)

WALLOPS CDA    34  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)

NORFOLK NAS    34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)

NORFOLK VA     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.