Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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FOPA13 PHFO 050243
PWSCP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 164.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

40N 160W       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

35N 165W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
35N 165W       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

40N 165W       34 20  61(81)   2(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
40N 165W       50  1  50(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
40N 165W       64  X   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

40N 170W       34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD







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