Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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000
FOPZ14 KNHC 242034
PWSEP4

HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 105W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 105W       50 23   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
15N 105W       64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

15N 110W       34  X   4( 4)  64(68)   3(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)  24(24)   5(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  20(25)   6(31)   X(31)   X(31)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  66(75)   4(79)   X(79)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  41(42)   4(46)   X(46)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   3(26)   X(26)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  25(30)   4(34)   1(35)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  31(34)   9(43)   1(44)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)  13(50)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   8(22)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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