Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 280108
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
907 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...VALID 03Z MON JUL 28 2014 - 00Z TUE JUL 29 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SE HSP 15 N BCB 10 W GEV 15 N AVL 25 NE 1A5 TYS 30 N CSV
25 SE GLW 15 NE GLW 45 NW SME 35 SSW LEX 15 ENE LEX 40 W UNI
10 SE ZZV 15 ENE PHD 10 N AKR 20 WNW HZY 20 W CWPS 10 SSE CYHM
35 WNW ROC 10 S ART 10 SW CMWD 10 WNW CYOY 45 ENE CWHV
10 WNW IZG 10 SSW AQW 35 WSW PSF 10 WNW FWN DYL 20 NNW ILG THV
HGR 20 SSE CBE 30 E HSP 25 SE HSP.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N SAF SKX 30 SSE ALS 15 NE ALS 30 ENE MYP 25 SW APA
35 SSW LIC 15 WSW SPD 35 SW DHT 40 W TCC 45 SSE LVS 15 SSE 4MY
15 SSE ABQ 15 NE ABQ SAF 20 N SAF.


...COLORADO/NEW MEXICO...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES HERE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREA..THOUGH GENLY
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. STRONGLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WITH INFLOW NEARLY OPPOSITE TO OUTFLOW FAVOR TRAINING AND/OR
QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS
EMBEDDED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH NEAR THE
EASTERN SLOPES TO AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.25 OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RAIN
RATES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WHEN FFG VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LOWER.

...OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS...


ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.  IN THE SHORT
TERM..THROUGH 04Z..SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GENL E/SEWD
PROGRESSION OF TSTMS ACRS PARTS OF THE ERN TN VALLEY/SRN APPLCNS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME QUICK .50 TO 1 INCH RAINS. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINS ON TOP OF EARLIER HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN SOME EARLY
NIGHTIME RUNOFF ISSUES..AFTER WHICH DRIER CONDS SHOULD PUSH WEST
TO EAST WITH APCHNG COLD FRONT.  LONGER TERM EXCESSIVE THREAT WILL
EXIST OVER PARTS OF NRN PA NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AS DEEPENING
85H-7H CIRC TOWARDS WRN NY OVERNIGHT RESULTS IN STG SYNOPTIC
FORCING WITH FFG VALUES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER DOWNSTREAM.
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED REGIONS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY AIDED BY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT
RATES THAT MAY EXCEED GUIDANCE VALUES.

...CA/SRN NV/AZ/NM..SW UT...
MOIST 6H-7H SWLY FLOW AROUND SRN ROCKIES UPR HIGH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCTD RATHER HI BASED STORMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING
HRS..ENHANCED BY SEVERAL WEAK MID/UPR LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING SLOWLY
NWWD AROUND THE UPR HI.  SOMEWHAT LOWER BASED STORMS WITH POTNL
FOR ISOLD HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE PSBL NEAR WEAK LEFT OVER MCV OVER
SRN CA WHERE PWS OVER 1.75 INCHES ARE PRESENT.  MOST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE..BUT STILL COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME ISOLD HEAVIER CNVTV RAINS.

SULLIVAN



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