Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS11 KWBC 242011
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

VALID 00Z MON SEP 25 2017 - 00Z THU SEP 28 2017


DAYS 1 AND 2...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

DAY 1...
AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
DURING DAY 1...SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO NEAR 7000 FEET ACROSS THE WIND
RIVER RANGE IN WY. MOISTURE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS PROVIDES SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR AN AREA OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THIS RANGE. THESE AMOUNTS YIELD A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF 4+ INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE QPF MOST
LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SNOWFALL.

DAY 2...
THE BEST MID LEVEL LEVEL EXITS WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON DAY 2...REDUCING THE EXTENT OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET ACROSS THE WIND RIVER RANGE IN
WY...WHERE THE WEAKENING UPSLOPE FLOW PROVIDES ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SUGGEST A SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF 4+ INCHES OF
SNOWFALL...WITH QPF AGAIN BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HAYES

$$





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