Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261915
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 27/0000 UTC THRU MAY 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LOW
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...SLOWLY DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD (00Z SAT). AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...SO DOES
THE BROAD-SCALE EXIT REGION FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR...THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS WILL
BOOST THE LLJ BETWEEN 45-55+ KTS TONIGHT...WHILE THE UPTICK IN
UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ALLOW FOR A BLOSSOMING AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED...ACROSS THE AREA.
MOREOVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SUCH THAT THE BEST POOL OF
DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (SOUTHERN PLAINS) WILL FOR THE
MOST PART REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BEST COUPLED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT (CENTRAL PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY). AS A RESULT...THE MODEL
QPFS...IN PARTICULAR THE CAMS...ARE NOT WELL CLUSTERED WHEN IT
COMES TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. WPC TENDED TO FAVOR THE RECENT HRRR/PARALLEL
HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR TRENDS WITH THE NEAR-TERM AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN TRANSITIONED TOWARD A MULTI-MODEL BLEND
OF THE OTHER CAMS...WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE NSSL-WRF. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS...AS
INDICATED FROM THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (3-6+ INCHES)...WHICH
CERTAINLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR/STLT/OBS
TRENDS...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW...AND PWS
CLIMBING BETWEEN 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE SREF
AND GEFS.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
MAXIMA ARE NOTED...RESULTING FROM THE MORE ROBUST/DEEPER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT AS THE THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE IS NOT QUITE AS RICH
(THOUGH PW ANOMALIES WILL NEVERTHELESS AVERAGE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL). OVER THIS REGION...WPC LEANED MORE
TOWARD A BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH
KEPT THE AXIS OF MAX QPF FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KS EASTWARD
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

...CO FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CO FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE...AS THE AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER TROUGH
ENHANCES THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY (UPSLOPE) COMPONENT AND ASSOCIATED
UPTICK IN MUCAPE AND PWS WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD/ALONG THE AXIS OF
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION. WPC CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2" OVER THIS AREA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NE. HOWEVER...ONCE
AGAIN THE HIGH-RES CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TOTALS
BETWEEN 3-5"...WHICH GIVEN THE TERRAIN COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO
SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 541204 532216 526218 522220 520223 515245 510256 506265
      501272 497274 496270 494266 491266 487262 483260 478255
      471251 466248 461247 458247 455246 449240 452235 455232
      454226 451223 447223 443223 442221 445218 449217 454218
      460215 473206 478202 481200 481196 480189 477185 477178
      475174 472169 470167 465164 461163 458161 454160 449156
      444150 441148 439142 437138 436133 435121 428116 424115
      421117 416117 414124 412127 408126 402121 397124 391128
      389128 388131 392134 396137 401139 403143 403148 399153
      392154 387153 385150 383145 379144 375136 373127 374120
      372116 373111 371108 373105 377105 379109 382110 384108
      387107 389103 388098 387095 383090 379088 376086 373082
      364068 360062 359059 358054 363034 364023 363018 363012
      367004 364999 361998 356996 351996 346998 344000 331012
      325016 318020 312024 308026 303026 295027 288027 280022
      272019 265017 256016 252013 249012 241008 234003 233999
      233993 234988 237985 240986 245988 254985 257983 259978
      260975 261969 261962 272953 277947 282941 290928 302917
      308913 314909 318908 321905 326900 331893 341890 350887
      359883 365879 369874 375867 374855 373844 372838 369842
      364849 364856 362859 357864 346866 340866 336865 332863
      329860 329854 332851 337850 340850 340848 336848 337845
      341840 347826 357813 366800 370793 374785 378778 383772
      392760 396756 397751 398747 400743 412727 416722 419714
      422706 425698 428691 433684 441677 443669 445658 448653
      451651 455650 458652 464654 468652 468646 470643 474641
      476638 481634 489628 496626 502626 540734 539737 539740
      538743 537746 537748 537749 536751 535752 534755
 0.01 534755 530760 525763 524765 525767 527769 530775 533782
      534792 536796 536801 537813 539857 539868 539876 539890
      537896 534902 531909 528926 523924 521927 520933 519937
      519941 520949 521959 522965 520971 520976 520987 520992
      521996 523003 526010 526017 524020 524023 521025 516027
      513032 510039 507045 503050 500057 494056 483051 477039
      474033 472025 471018 470013 466011 465009 462009 455009
      443012 441012 438015 434019 428035 422046 425053 429058
      435061 443061 449063 454066 458070 463074 476078 483079
      490078 500075 513076 520078 522080 524081 526084 529084
      534082 537080 541081 543083 546084 549088 552096 555104
      559109
 0.01 491889 491881 489876 487869 486864 484859 480857 478857
      476860 477865 479871 481874 483879 486884 488888 491889
 0.01 397206 393200 386196 383191 380188 377187 374184 370183
      363183 360185 360188 367192 371194 373196 380200 387204
      396205 397206
 0.01 400818 399816 398815 397814 396812 395813 393813 391813
      389813 388815 390817 391817 393819 395819 397820 399820
      400818
 0.01 363101 364096 364090 362088 359090 353093 349097 345096
      342093 340094 340098 344105 348110 352117 355113 359107
      363101
 0.01 293778 293773 293768 291766 285764 277765 270766 265770
      263774 263777 263781 261780 255778 248776 245775 241776
      235779 232780 231783 229790 223789 221792 222795 222804
      222813 228827 225840 226843 230843 233838 232830 234823
      246821 248818 251818 257821 263823 267827 273828 277828
      279826 281825 281820 281816 284813 288812 289810 291808
      291805 287800 288791 293778
 0.25 548156 545150 540154 536160 536155 537150 537145 536140
      533140 530141 528144 524149 519149 512148 507151 504155
      500160 495164 491168 488175 488182 490191 495191 497192
      497198 498205 496210 494210 488210 482213 477214 478219
      489227 495228 498223 500220 504222 509225 513221 515213
      518206 522201 528189 534175 537166 539161 544156 548156
 0.25 523691 522686 521683 520681 516680 514683 513686 513691
      514696 515701 516703 518708 520709 521707 522703 523699
      523693 523691
 0.25 508799 509797 509794 508792 506792 505793 503795 503798
      503800 504803 504805 506807 507805 507804 508802 508799
      508799
 0.25 507003 508993 505986 500983 497988 495995 495000 494005
      495013 496022 497026 499026 503021 504014 506006 507003
 0.25 473106 473101 471098 470094 467092 463097 458103 454109
      450114 450119 451124 453125 456123 460117 465112 471108
      473106
 0.25 476930 474920 469911 467905 467899 466891 464886 460884
      454885 446887 440887 436885 429881 424875 422870 422865
      422859 423852 425848 427843 427835 425829 422827 420829
      418833 411839 408850 405858 400866 395873 389879 383884
      374889 365892 355896 347899 341905 336912 333915 330918
      320920 314924 299937 285946 279952 278958 278964 277968
      275972 272976 275979 280982 281987 284991 288994 292001
      294005 297008 300005 302999 304995 308994 312995 314001
      317999 320996 326990 335986 342984 346982 349980 356974
      359972 365970 371970 373971 374974 377984 380988 385988
      388987 391988 391990 385008 383015 382020 382027 380033
      375039 372048 372056 373061 376065 380067 385069 390069
      398067 405062 408059 410054 413041 417032 421023 426013
      433996 436990 438987 445981 450974 452970 455968 461968
      467967 471964 473959 474943 475935 476930
 0.25 443099 443098 441097 439097 439098 441099 443099 443099
 0.25 430755 429751 427750 422752 419757 417763 415769 413777
      415780 420782 425779 428772 429764 430757 430755
 0.25 255793 253791 251790 250788 247788 245790 243791 242795
      241797 243801 244802 247800 249798 251797 253796 255793
 0.50 520186 521179 520175 515172 513168 511165 507164 503164
      499166 493171 493177 496181 501183 503186 505197 506210
      508214 511215 514201 518193 520186
 0.50 460925 457911 454905 447904 441903 433902 427902 422899
      417896 412894 408889 404890 401892 392899 380897 375899
      367899 352900 350902 348906 344912 336919 332923 327926
      317928 307936 299943 296948 289949 285953 283956 283961
      281967 279972 276974 278977 282978 283981 295001 308990
      313990 317994 319995 321993 324988 345976 348971 352967
      356963 361959 372956 374962 379969 382972 389974 396974
      400974 404973 412965 417949 428947 434949 440947 447945
      448945 450949 450952 452952 454945 455938 457934 460925
 0.50 415001 415995 415992 410986 406984 402986 398991 394997
      392006 390016 387024 383042 378048 378054 380058 384063
      388064 391063 397060 402053 407038 410029 412019 415001
 1.00 409938 410930 407926 398921 395917 392911 384918 377925
      375928 375934 378939 379945 377954 378957 381957 386954
      396952 400950 404947 407943 409938
 1.00 406007 406003 403000 399002 398007 396018 395023 392027
      389038 386047 386054 388057 392057 395055 400046 403035
      405023 406010 406007
 1.00 368923 369913 366911 362911 357904 352903 351906 350911
      346916 340921 336926 334932 330938 316939 310941 305945
      301951 299960 299967 297971 294972 290973 286971 286966
      284968 284973 286974 285977 285981 286985 292990 293992
      297991 298983 301977 308978 315979 318981 319985 323984
      326981 330976 333970 335968 339968 344967 347965 349958
      350954 352952 357949 360940 363934 366928 368923
 1.50 402938 398935 393933 390927 386928 382932 381936 382939
      382945 380952 382953 384951 389949 395947 400943 402938
 1.50 398041 399039 399037 399035 399032 398030 396030 395032
      394034 393036 393039 392039 392041 391043 391045 391048
      390050 392051 393050 394050 395048 396046 397044 397043
      398041
 1.50 359921 359916 355915 349919 343923 341924 339928 339935
      336942 331947 328948 323947 319948 316950 310956 307956
      305960 304963 306966 313968 319971 326971 332965 339964
      343963 344958 346950 348943 350938 353938 356935 357930
      359921
 1.50 294987 294985 293984 293983 293981 292979 292978 291977
      290976 288976 287977 287979 286980 286981 287983 288984
      289985 290985 292987 293989 294987
 2.00 395943 395940 393940 392940 391941 390940 389940 388942
      387943 388944 389944 391944 393943 395943 395943
 2.00 354923 355921 353920 352920 351921 350922 349923 348924
      346925 346926 348926 350926 352925 353923 354923
 2.00 343947 343943 341942 339944 338947 337949 336953 334955
      334957 336958 338958 341956 342954 343949 343947
 2.00 325958 323958 322958 321960 321961 323961 324960 325959
      325958

$$





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