Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 020658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 02/1200 UTC THRU JUL 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS
AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD..WITH THE H5 RIDGE REMAINING INTACT FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
DOWNSTREAM H5 TROF PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
 THIS PATTERN PUTS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MID
MS AND TN VALLEYS IN A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME..WHICH WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY/VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  AT LEAST SEVERAL WELL
DEFINED H5 S/WVS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME..WITH ONE NOW OVER MO..A
2ND MOVING INTO IA AND YET A THIRD ONE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS..WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL..WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS..A FRONTAL
WAVE FURTHER ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM PARTS OF TN
INTO KY AND SOUTHERN WV ON THURSDAY NIGHT..AND OCCASIONAL POOLING
OF PWS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.  GRADUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE H5 TROF WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW BUT STEADY SOUTHWARD SHIFT
TO THE CONVECTION OVERALL..AND FOR THAT REASON STUCK CLOSE TO THE
HIGHER RES QPF GUIDANCE OF THE ARW..NMMB..ECMWF AND GEM
REGIONAL..WHICH BEST SHOWED THIS TREND.  EXPECT SOME 1-2 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A GENERAL WEST-EAST BAND FROM
PARTS OF EASTERN OK INTO AR THRU TN/NORTHERN AL..MS AND GA AND
INTO SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN WV..WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  BACK IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS..ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY FROM PARTS OF SD INTO NE AND KS..BUT WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1 INCH WITH THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL JET AND HIGHER PWS AIMED/SET-UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY.


...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...

THE ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
PERIOD..WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT NORTHWESTWARD
WITH TIME.  HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO CA ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM AZ UP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
UT..NV AND INTO CA..SHOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
THRUOUT THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY SO DURING TIME OF BETTER
HEATING LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  MAINLY
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED.  H5 S/WV
ENERGY IS ALSO FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE H5 RIDGE ON ITS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SIDE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT..AND COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF HIGHER PW AIR TO PRODUCE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM CO DOWN INTO NM AND FAR WESTERN TX.
 SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE..AS HINTED AT BY
SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE..BUT STUCK WITH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 INCHES IN GENERAL.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY


24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 545753 534756 527763 519770 508772 498771 491765 477750
      470726 467719 464714 460714 457709 459704 462700 473697
      477692 477688 475685 473679 470676 470669 475666 478661
      479655 480650 484646 487640 488634 489629 492625 499618
 0.01 553963 548939 550934 550928 545919 539911 524901 517897
      512887 510873 509858 501836 492833 484836 477845 474859
      472876 473909 473918 472925 472932 472940 474947 476951
      480955 482957 481962 481966 482970 485973 490972 493976
      492982 492987 489991 487994 482994 480989 477986 472984
      467983 459981 448978 440975 434970 425965 416960 408954
      403948 398940 394929 393925 393921 393915 395867 394854
      396844 395830 392818 390812 391805 389790 388785 389780
      390775 390767 392755 394743 402727 410711 412704 416696
      420685 419678 415678 409680 406683 399690 390694 383701
      377710 370717 361720 355726 348732 343738 337745 334754
      333758 334762 340771 328785 314797 310800 305801 294806
      283808 277809 273811 267812 264812 262814 260817 263820
      272824 278828 283832 290835 293837 296840 295844 292849
      290860 289864 290870 292881 296889 305890 318890 331890
      335893 335897 334922 333934 333946 333972 333979 335984
      338993 340004 341011 341017 333021 330025 330029 332033
      333037 332039 327042 326048 316051 316058 317061 321069
      323073 325079 328099 329110 330114 332117 340121 346128
      351131 356132 361133 365135 368139 371143 371148 367151
      363152 360157 359161 358162 356169 354184 357187 361190
      374199 381203 387209 390211 396213 401214 406216 410220
      415216 421209 423207 423204 420200 416198 413199 405200
      400199 398196 394192 393185 394180 397176 401165 402158
      401153 394139 392135 389132 386129 388125 390121 392117
      389114 384108 374107 371106 368104 367097 366092 364089
      362084 365082
 0.01 365082 371082 375085 382086 386085 392085 394081 399072
      404071 408069 416076 421084 424088 428089 434090 437095
      443101 451099 454094 450092 447087 442086 433080 438075
      439074 444077 448080 450078 453072 454066 447070 443066
      438066 432065 428061 425057 423055 424050 425043 429040
      432038 436038 442036 445034 452025 456023 461025 465028
      469031 476036 480040 485040 493037 495041 500042 504039
      504032 503024 506021 521010 529005 532005 534004 539003
      545999 548987 553963
 0.01 391947 391943 389940 387938 385936 382934 380934 377934
      377938 377943 379947 380949 382951 384953 386952 388949
      391947
 0.01 370167 370165 369163 367164 367167 368169 370167 370167
 0.01 304097 304091 303087 299081 297078 297075 299075 302073
      306070 307066 305062 295061 290061 286062 282062 279060
      276058 272060 264061 260060 256057 252056 249056 246060
      245064 247067 250067 253067 255071 257074 261076 268076
      272081 276089 280094 289098 298100 302099 304097
 0.01 233814 232808 232802 231796 229794 225791 223795 220800
      223805 223809 225813 229816 231814 233814
 0.25 504628 501635 498643 497652 497662 497669 499675 501679
      502684 496691 494699 493703 489705 487708 486712 483731
      482735 483741 486747 492753 497756 503759 509761 517759
      521755 526747 531744 541738
 0.25 515931 514923 510920 505917 502911 498898 495891 488893
      485894 484897 482904 481912 482922 484929 487934 491938
      497938 502941 504949 506955 507958 510957 513951 514944
      515931
 0.25 452993 451987 447985 438981 430976 422973 412970 403970
      393968 389970 389974 389982 386985 378988 374991 376996
      378001 379006 384013 392018 397020 403019 407016 408012
      412001 415998 419996 423994 427996 434000 444999 448998
      451994 452993
 0.25 404703 402701 399704 396708 394711 391716 390718 389723
      391725 394724 397720 400716 402713 404708 404703
 0.25 414054 413048 409046 402050 400051 397049 396046 397043
      396037 394032 385035 376033 366030 355029 348025 343024
      338024 335028 336032 342038 346041 347045 349051 350054
      356061 362066 371069 375071 379071 382062 386058 390057
      399056 409058 412057 414054
 0.25 386198 385196 383193 381192 378189 376188 373187 369186
      366186 366187 369190 371191 374193 376194 379196 381197
      384199 386198
 0.25 384775 384765 382757 377743 375739 370737 364739 361743
      355754 351767 346777 340784 332793 329799 330803 333804
      338805 343803 347800 349800 350804 348810 345815 339818
      335822 333826 331832 331839 332846 334854 335862 336870
      338876 341890 342896 342902 339917 338933 338950 339965
      341971 343975 348980 352983 357982 361979 363974 365967
      366950 366940 367933 368928 369920 370913 370905 369890
      370883 374879 380878 386876 387863 388854 388845 386835
      386826 385810 383793 382787 383781 384775
 0.25 354117 354114 352110 348103 345098 344093 346087 345083
      341082 338082 335085 333089 333095 335104 339110 344115
      351118 354117
 0.25 325838 323832 319830 314828 312827 309828 304838 303848
      300859 299867 300874 303879 307880 309876 310870 317864
      320858 321853 324842 325838
 0.50 537730 536729 535727 535726 533726 532726 531726 530727
      528728 528729 528732 529733 530734 531734 532734 534734
      535733 535732 537730 537730
 0.50 507638 506639 504641 503643 502645 501648 501649 500651
      500653 500656 502658 504659 505659 506659 507659 509658
      510657 512656 513654 513651 513649
 0.50 511747 508741 506738 506743 504745 502741 503738 501736
      500734 494734 489734 486737 488744 492748 497750 502752
      508751 511747
 0.50 495919 495916 494914 494913 493911 492910 490910 489911
      488912 487914 487915 487917 488919 489921 490922 491922
      492922 494921 495919
 0.50 423984 425987 431988 435988 435984 431982 429982 428981
      426981 424981 422982 422983 423984
 0.50 396009 397004 397000 396996 394993 392992 389990 387990
      385990 382992 381995 382998 382001 384004 386006 388008
      390009 394010 396009
 0.50 382814 382806 381799 379793 378785 378778 377772 376758
      371750 366751 364756 362765 355772 355778 357782 358798
      360804 360811 359816 357821 354824 350822 346824 344827
      340836 338847 338859 341872 343883 344895 341920 340932
      341945 342957 346967 349972 352976 355973 357969 360964
      361959 361944 362937 363933 366923 367915 367908 365895
      364888 364881 366876 368872 371869 373867 376867 380869
      382868 383864 383852 381836 382814
 0.50 383045 383042 382041 380040 378039 376038 375038 373037
      371037 369038 368039 367040 367041 367043 368046 369046
      371047 372047 374047 376047 378047 379047 380047 381046
      383045
 0.50 349112 348109 346107 345103 344100 343098 342094 341091
      339089 337091 336095 336099 337102 338104 340106 342109
      344111 346113 349112
 1.00 377814 377806 373806 372809 368818 366824 365830 364834
      362835 359836 352838 348841 345852 344857 344863 346877
      347891 350903 354915 359924 363921 364915 363903 362896
      359891 358883 359876 360871 363866 369859 373855 376851
      376844 376837 375830 376822 377814
 1.50 351884 351892 351899 355909 358913 360912 360909 359904
      358896 355888 354883 352881 351884

$$





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