Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 292124
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/29/15 2123Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST 2115Z  KC/JS
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LOCATION...W WISCONSIN/S CENT TO SE MINNESOTA/N CENT TO NE IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...ARX...MPX...DMX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT..MARGINAL AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF N
IA/S-SE MN/W-CENT WI.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
MOVING TO THE ENE AND A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN MANITOBA MOVING
SOUTH HAS CREATED A REGION OF  UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE WHERE A BAROCLINIC
LEAF SIGNATURE INDICATIVE OF SOMEWHAT LARGER SCALE ASCENT HAS FORMED
OVER MN, IA AND WI ACCORDING TO WV IMAGERY. THIS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS WHICH DEPICT THE REGION TO
BE FAVORABLY LOCATED BETWEEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
OVER S CANADA AND AN APPROACHING SPEED MAX OVER E NEB/IA. CLOUD COVER
HAS RESULTED IN  RATHER SUB-PAR INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES 500-1000
J/KG CAPE OVER SE MN ACCORDING TO RAP ANALYSIS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING
IN E IA IN WARMER AIR AHEAD OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL MN
HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN E IA PER GOES SOUNDER
ANIMATION ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED STRONGER CONVECTION TO GENERATE
IN E IA. SW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS PRESENT WHICH IMPLIES THE THREAT FOR
TRAINING FROM N CENT IA  INTO SE MN AND EVENTUALLY W WI ALONG AN  AXIS OF
SFC CONVERGENCE SPANNING FROM E NEB TO W WI. MOISTURE IN SE MN AND E IA
IS 150% OF NORMAL WITH PW VALUES RANGING UP TO 1.2"-1.3" PER BLENDED TPW
ANIMATION/GPS NETWORK THOUGH RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS EVEN HIGHER PW VALUES
TO LOCALLY OVER 1.5" ARE POSSIBLE.  GIVEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BELIEVE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR REPEAT CELL
TRAINING WITH PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS BEING THE RELATIVELY WEAK LLJ OF
15-20 KNOTS ACCORDING TO VAD PROFILER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. UNLESS
GREATER UPSCALE GROWTH CAN OCCUR, BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED, ENCOMPASSING THE APPROXIMATE AREA FROM NEAR KMCW IN N IA TO
KVOK/KCWA IN W AND CENT WI, BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE APPARENT
3 HOUR FFG VALUES OF NEAR 2".
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4457 9052 4396 9027 4290 9356 4348 9453 4429 9322

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