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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 150853
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...ODILE BATTERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 110.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA WITH A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES. THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO
SAN FELIPE AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO
TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ODILE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
IN MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SINALOA AND SONORA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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