Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170811 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 411 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance crosses the area through this morning. A cold front will drop through the region tonight bringing in cooler air for the start of next week. A stronger cold front will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... Early this morning, a weak sfc trough was pushing into cntrl VA and the Carolinas. Weak shortwave energy was right in advance of this trough. The sky cover ranged from mostly clear to mostly cloudy across the area. Temps ranged from the upper 40s to mid 50s. This shortwave energy and associated trough could produce isolated to sctd showers over ern/SE portions of the area through around 800 am. Then, expect a partly sunny sky for the remainder of the day, with WSW winds helping to produce very mild high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Also, a strong low pressure system will track from SE Canada toward the Canadian Maritimes today into Mon morning. This will send a second, stronger cold front across the area later this evening into Mon morning. Expect more clouds across the srn half of the region this evening into Mon morning, and there may be a little bit of light rain, as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our south. Will keep PoPs no higher than 20-30% in SE VA/NE NC with a dry forecast elsewhere. QPFs are a few hundredths of an inch at best. Lows tonight with range from the mid 30s extrm NW, to the upper 40s extrm SE VA/NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... Cooler and breezy in some areas on Mon under a generally partly sunny sky. Highs will range through the 50s. A secondary, stronger shot of CAA arrives Mon night into Tue morning, as the flow aloft becomes NW. Breezy (esply near the coast) Mon night with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Tue looks to be the coolest day of the period with continued breezy WNW winds (gusts up to 30 mph possible near the coast) and highs in the lower to mid 50s. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows ranging from the mid 30s extrm NW, to the lower 40s extrm SE VA and NE NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 410 AM EDT Sunday... The flow aloft flattens out a little bit from Wed-Thu, but the latest (12z) global models and ensembles still show it remaining WNW. Temperatures moderate into the 60s (with continued dry wx) for Wed, but may cool back down a bit on Thu behind another dry cold front. Still breezy out of the WNW on Wed, with lighter N winds expected on Thu. Then, attention turns to our next low pressure system, which will impact the area sometime between Friday night and Sun/Mon. While there are major differences in the GFS/ECMWF with respect to timing, ensemble mean precipitation amounts are 0.50-1.50" across the FA from Friday (3/22) through Monday (3/25). So, will continue to go with widespread 40-60% PoPs during this time, which will likely need to be raised as confidence in exact timing increases in the coming days (given that ensemble mean QPFs are already > 1"in parts of the area). Temps remain near to below average from Fri through next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites from early this morning into early Mon morning. However, a shortwave will cross the area through this morning, which may bring a few showers to SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG, with the highest chc being at ECG/ORF. Flight restrictions, mostly from MVFR CIGs are expected for a few hrs across SE VA/NE NC and have included VCSH wording at ORF/ECG. VFR after ~13Z this morning for all areas with winds shifting to the W-WSW and increasing to 10-15 kt (with gusts to 20 kt). Outlook: Isolated to widely sctd showers will be possible over SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the region tonight into Mon morning (which may result in brief flight restrictions). Otherwise, mainly VFR through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... As of 335 AM EDT Sunday... Latest analysis shows 1012+mb sfc low pressure offshore of the southeast coast early this morning. A potent northern stream ~992mb low pressure system was analyzed over eastern Ontario, with the associated strong surface cold front extending from Lake Ontario SSW into the eastern OH and Lower TN River Valleys. Latest obs and buoy reports showing SSW flow 10-20 kt over the bay, with pressure gradient briefly tightening with weak low pressure sliding across the region this morning. Expect SCA conditions currently in place over the lower James and Ches Bay to quickly ramp down in the wake of this system after 6-7 am, and will therefore extend SCA through 7am for the lower James and lower Bay to match the middle bay zones. Otherwise, no major changes in forecast rationale for today, with winds remaining W-SW 10-15 kt, occasionally gusting to 18-20 kt in the James River and lower bay this afternoon. Winds veer to the N-NW, tonight into early Monday morning, as the pressure gradient tightens once again ahead of the next frontal passage. A brief period of SCA is possible with NW winds over the lower bay. However, SCA headlines are more likely to be needed Monday evening, as a strong cold front drops across the waters. Winds quickly ramp up after 00z/8pm over northern waters, reaching the southern waters by midnight as gusty NW winds bring much cooler air into the region. Wind probs remain low for prolonged gale force gusts (<10%), but quite likely to see solid SCAs appear over the entire area during this timeframe. Cool high pressure builds south of the area Tue night, allowing winds to slowly diminish and SCAs potentially coming down by mid to late Tuesday afternoon. Winds back to the W-SW winds late Tue into Wed, with potential for a brief period of SCA conditions Tue night in the lower bay and lower James River. Another front drops across the area later Wed aftn, pushing winds back to the NNW Wed night and Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634-638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG LONG TERM...ERI/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAM

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