Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 191036
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
636 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes centered along the Gulf coast today and
Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions prevailing across the
region. A cold front pushes across the mid-Atlantic Wednesday
night, with high pressure building to the north Thursday and
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from late
morning through early this evening for much of the area.
2. Cooler today with gusty winds expected (gusts of 20-25 mph
inland, up to 30 mph along the eastern shore of VA/MD).
Latest analysis reveals ~1004mb sfc low pressure offshore of the
coastal Carolinas, with strong sfc cold front now offshore of
the mid-Atlantic and southeast coast. To the SW, 1027+mb sfc
high pressure was analyzed over the west-central gulf coast.
Cooler and breezy W-NW winds today, with only some passing mid
to high clouds over northern sections later this morning in
association with additional weak shortwave energy passing mainly
to our north. Forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s. Breezy
today, with the pressure gradient remaining compressed between
low offshore and high pressure building across the gulf coast.
Main forecast issue today will be the wind and the increasingly
dry conditions. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30
mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these gusty winds and
expected low RH afternoon as flow aloft becomes increasingly
downslope (W-NW), wildfire danger will be elevated. See fire wx
section below for additional details.
Clear and seasonably cool tonight. Nudged temperatures upward
slightly along the coast with boundary layer to remain well-
mixed, with breezy conditions continuing through the night.
Lows mainly in the upper 30s to around 40 inland (middle 30s
along the US-15 corridor well inland), lower to middle 40s along
the VA/NC coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Warmer and windy on Wednesday.
2. Continued concern for fire danger issues with gusty W-SW
winds and increasingly dry conditions.
3. Turning cooler but remaining dry for Thursday.
Wed will be the warmest day of the week, in compressional
heating ahead of another mainly dry cold front. Northern stream
low pressure will drop out of the Canadian Prairies into SE
Ontario with its cold front dropping across the Ohio Valley into
the central Appalachians during the day on Wed. Ahead of the
front, increasingly gusty W-SW winds are expected (15-20 mph
Wed aftn with gusts to 30-35 mph), which will only exacerbate
the dry conditions that have been present through the week.
These winds will obviously keep fire danger a concern, and a
Fire Weather Watch remains in effect in anticipation of the low
RH and gusty conditions. The frontal passage itself comes Wed
evening and does not look to bring any precipitation to the
region. Warmer Wed with highs well into the 60s (some readings
~70 possible). Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging
through the 30s into the lower 40s.
Cooler behind the front on Thursday, with high pressure nosing
in from the northwest, eventually building north of the region
by Thursday night. One more day of dry weather/low RH is
expected on Thursday and despite the cooler conditions, wildfire
danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather
conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire
weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the
Eastern Shore to near 60 in south- central VA. Winds will be
lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore,
under a mostly sunny sky. Cooler Thu night with lows in the 30s
to near 40 degrees SE coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
The high slides E-NE into New England to begin the day Friday
morning. Meanwhile, the next low pressure system will bring a
chance of rain back to the area on Friday afternoon and evening
and possibly lingering into Saturday. The 00z/19 GFS has trended
slower toward the ECMWF/EPS solution, with the CMC a middle
ground solution (slightly more progressive). While temporal and
spatial disagreements continue, this paints a rainier picture
for the region Friday night into Saturday, especially along and
east of I-95. Have nudged PoPs up a bit into likely range Fri
night and Saturday, with best rain chances early Saturday into
Saturday afternoon. Will have lingering chance PoPs into Sunday
morning along the Delmarva coast, while gradually drying out
well inland. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri,
in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun.
Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 635 AM EDT Tuesday...
VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 12z/19 TAF
will persist through this evening and through midweek. Winds
will remain ~8-10 knots this morning, before increasing to
12-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt late this morning and this
afternoon.
Outlook...VFR conditions prevail tonight through Thu night, but
remaining breezy. Winds out of W-SW late Wed morning and Wed
afternoon, shifting to the NNW Wed night into Thursday behind
another dry cold frontal passage. An area of developing low
pressure to the south late this week will bring increasing rain
chances late Friday into Saturday, with (at least) periodic sub-
VFR CIGs/VSBY also looking increasingly likely during this
period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Strong NW winds continue early this morning with Gale gusts
possible.
- Winds remain mostly elevated into early Thursday morning.
- Confidence is increasing in a prolonged period of strong winds and
elevated seas this weekend into early next week.
Early morning sfc analysis depicts a cold front south of the local
waters with strong high pressure across the Deep South and low
pressure off the coast of New England. The pressure gradient between
these features has allowed for strong NW winds 20-30 kt with gusts
30-35 kt (highest across the lower Ches Bay where gusts to 40 kt
have been observed) overnight which will continue into this morning,
gradually diminishing later this morning into this afternoon. As
such, Gale Warnings for the Lower Bay and VA Beach offshore marine
zone (ANZ656) remain in effect until 7 AM. Elsewhere, SCAs remain in
effect until 1 PM this afternoon (although they may be able to be
canceled earlier). Winds briefly diminish this afternoon before
becoming SW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening through
tonight. SCAs will be needed for this surge, but will refrain from
extending current SCAs right now due to the improved conditions this
afternoon. Winds become W Wed generally 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt
possible across the rivers due to a well mixed environment and
strong winds over the land Wed afternoon.
Low pressure moves into S Quebec into New England Wed evening into
Wed night, pushing a strong cold front over the local waters. As
such, winds become NW/NNW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt (highest
across the N coastal waters) Wed evening/night behind the front.
Winds diminish late Thu morning into early Thu afternoon as
progressive high pressure briefly moves in. The reprieve in winds
lasts until Fri afternoon or evening. Models are coming into better
agreement that a cutoff low moves into the SE and off the SE coast
Fri into this weekend with low pressure forming within it and high
pressure to the NE Fri and then NW later in the weekend. The exact
track of the low will have direct impacts on the forecast and how
much wind and rain is to be expected. However, as of now, confidence
is increasing that the pressure gradient alone will likely be strong
enough for high-end SCA to Gale conditions to develop this weekend.
As of now, the strongest winds appear to be Sat night (but this
could change). Will continue to monitor this weekend for the
potential of Gale conditions.
Waves and seas were 4-5 ft and 4-6 ft this morning. Waves/seas
subside to 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later this afternoon. A
period of elevated waves/seas is looking increasingly likely this
weekend into early next week due to prolonged E/SE and then N flow.
High Surf Advisories and seas 8-10 ft (potentially larger) are
possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry and breezy conditions are expected through
Thursday.
2. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will
increase the possibility for any fires to burn out of control.
The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until
later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry
agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we`ve issued an
Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties today, with
the exception of the MD Beaches (Ocean City, MD area) and N OBX
(E Currituck County, ND). Winds are expected to be stronger on
Wednesday, and as temperatures warm up, we will likely be close
to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For
that reason, a Fire Wx Watch continues for all of our VA
counties except nearest the Ches Bay. This will be collaborated
further with surrounding offices and state forestry agencies
later this morning. Any jurisdictions not in a Fire Wx Watch
Wed will likely see another IFD statement owing to the gusty
winds and warmer conditions.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>100-509>525.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092-
093-096-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
631-633-635>638-650-652-654-658.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-656.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RMM
FIRE WEATHER...