Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170622 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level disturbance crosses the area through this morning. A cold front will drop through the region tonight bringing in cooler air for the start of next week. A stronger cold front will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 830 PM EDT Saturday... The latest WX analysis indicates weak sfc high pressure now off the VA/NC coast, with a weak sfc trough along the coast of SC. Aloft, the flow is westerly, with a strong shortwave over the upper midwest, and weaker shortwave energy over the TN Valley, moving towards the southern Appalachians. The sky is still mostly clear across the local area, with a light E-SE flow along the coast, and light/variable to S winds well inland. Temperatures have dropped off fast since sunset, with most areas ranging through the 50s (locally some upper 40s over the typically cooler sections of interior SE VA/NE NC as well as the eastern shore). Models show the weaker shortwave passing through the local area late tonight, which will result in an increase in clouds, especially over the E and SE portions of the FA closer to the sfc low/trough that is progged to move NE along the Carolina coast. In addition, some weak elevated instability (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE and H7-H5 lapse rates of 6.5 to 7C/Km) will briefly overspread coastal VA/NC late tonight as the shortwave passes by. As such, a few showers cannot be ruled out over the Se 1/2 of the CWA between 2-8 AM. Areal average QPFs are only a few hundredths of an inch. Overnight lows will mostly range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM EDT Saturday... The strong low pressure system tracks east through Quebec Sun into Mon, sending a second, stronger cold front across the area Sun night- Mon. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a little bit of light rain Sunday evening into early Monday as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our south. Will keep PoPs no higher than 20-30% in SE VA/NE NC with a dry forecast elsewhere. QPFs are a few hundredths of an inch at best. Sunday will be the warmest day of the next several with highs in the upper 60s-lower 70s. Cooler air will begin to filter in behind the boundary, so low temperatures Sunday night will be in the mid-upper 30s to the west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast. Breezy/cooler on Mon with widespread 20-25 mph gusts. Forecast highs are in the mid to upper 50s. A secondary, stronger shot of CAA arrives Monday night-Tuesday morning as the flow aloft becomes NW. Breezy (especially near the coast) Monday night with lows in the upper 20s-30s. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the period with continued breezy NW winds (gusts up to 30 mph possible near the coast) and highs in the mid 50s (except for lower 50s on the MD ern shore). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Saturday... The flow aloft flattens out a little bit from Wed-Thu, but the latest (12z) global models and ensembles still show it remaining WNW. Temperatures moderate into the 60s (with continued dry wx) for Wed, but may cool back down a bit on Thu behind another dry cold front. Still breezy out of the WNW on Wed, with lighter N winds expected on Thu. Then, attention turns to our next low pressure system, which will impact the area sometime between Friday night and Sun/Mon. While there are major differences in the GFS/ECMWF with respect to timing, ensemble mean precipitation amounts are 0.50-1.50" across the FA from Friday (3/22) through Monday (3/25). So, will continue to go with widespread 40-60% PoPs during this time, which will likely need to be raised as confidence in exact timing increases in the coming days (given that ensemble mean QPFs are already > 1"in parts of the area). Temps remain near to below average from Fri through next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites from early this morning into early Mon morning. However, a shortwave will cross the area through this morning, which may bring a few showers to SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG, with the highest chc being at ECG/ORF. Flight restrictions, mostly from MVFR CIGs are expected for a few hrs across SE VA/NE NC and have included VCSH wording at ORF/ECG. VFR after ~13Z this morning for all areas with winds shifting to the W-WSW and increasing to 10-15 kt (with gusts to 20 kt). Outlook: Isolated to widely sctd showers will be possible over SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the region tonight into Mon morning (which may result in brief flight restrictions). Otherwise, mainly VFR through the middle of next week.
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&& .MARINE... As of 645 PM EDT Saturday... Brief update to add Small Craft headlines to the Ches Bay and lower James River this evening into early Sunday. Hi-res guidance and local wind probs have trended upward with southerly wind speeds now expected to average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the bay and lower James tonight. Expect SCA conditions to hold on through 12z/8am for the northern bay zones while winds farther south should drop below thresholds around 08z/4am. The remainder of the forecast is in good shape. Previous Discussion as of 200 PM EDT: Yesterday`s cold front pushed offshore earlier this morning, allowing weak high pressure to build in behind it. Latest obs indicate the development of a seabreeze with wind speeds at 5-10kt. Seas are 2-3ft and waves are around 1ft (2ft in the mouth of the bay). High pressure will slide offshore to the SE this evening as another (dry) cold front approaches the region. Behind the high, winds become SE at 10-15kt, then increasing to 15-18kt (highest in northern waters) as they turn to the SW late tonight. Breezier Sunday, but still sub-SCA with westerly winds at ~10kt with gusts to 15kt. W-SW winds turn N-NW, increasing late Sunday night/Monday morning in tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next frontal passage. Once again, this surge is forecast to brief enough to hold off with any headlines despite a few gusts to ~20kt (reasonable to think a brief Marine Statement may be needed during this period). However, SCA headlines are likely to be needed as early as Monday evening, but especially late Monday night/ early Tuesday. A strong cold front crosses the region during this period, with strong cold air advection expected. EPS/GEFS both show 850mb temperatures dropping to as low as -8C to -10C by 12Z Tuesday. Wind probs are low for prolonged gale force gusts (single digit probs), but solid SCAs appear likely during this timeframe. Winds slowly diminish Tuesday with SCA potentially coming down Tuesday afternoon. Winds back to to W-SW winds late Tue into Wed, with potential for a brief period of SCA conditions Tue night in the lower bay and lower James River. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ632-634-638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG LONG TERM...ERI/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAM/RHR

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