Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151750
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
150 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Very warm weather continues today before a cold front arrives
late this evening. Scattered showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm are expected this evening into the early overnight
hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above
normal for the weekend with dry conditions. A secondary cold
front will push through Sunday night bringing in cooler air for
the start of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers move into the region this afternoon. More
widespread showers are expected this evening.
- Rainfall amounts will be 0.10-0.25" on average.
- Rain chances end from N to S early Saturday morning.
Latest analysis shows a cold front continuing to approach the FA
from the NNW, with WSW flow aloft with a cutoff low in the
Desert SW. While temperatures have risen into the 70s-near 80F,
dew points have been slower to recover and are still in the
upper 40s-lower 50s. As a result, the precip that is entering
our Piedmont counties have little to no instability to work
with. Still, expect scattered showers to overspread the FA from
west to east through early evening. The cold front is progged to
cross the FA from 02-06z/10 PM-2 AM. Rain chances will end from
NNW-SSE between 2-8 AM. Dew points will rise a few more degrees
later this aftn-early this evening, which could allow for a
minimal amount of sfc-based instability (100-300 J/kg) to
develop. So cannot completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder
(mainly after 4 PM), but no severe wx is anticipated.
It is not looking like a washout with QPF late today and
tonight on the order of one tenth to one quarter inch, though
there may be localized higher amounts with the heavier showers.
The front will be well south of the area by sunrise Saturday.
CAA will not be that strong behind the front, and so while a
cooler night is forecast tonight, lows will range from the mid
to upper 40s north to low to mid 50s central and south.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...
The front will be well south of the area to begin the day on
Saturday. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will allow for drying
conditions to quickly return. Temperatures will still be above
normal, but not quite as warm as we`ve been seeing over the past
few days. Expect highs this weekend to be in the upper 60s to
around 70 inland with low to mid 60s along the coast. Strong low
pressure crosses the Canadian Prairies into Ontario/Quebec Sun
into Mon, sending a second, stronger cold front across into the
area Sun night into Mon. Cloud cover will increase throughout
the day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a
few light showers along of just off the SE coast Sunday evening
into early Monday as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our
south. Cooler air will begin to fill in behind the boundary, so
low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to the
west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...
An area of low pressure moves into Quebec Monday morning, with
a weak shortwave forming along the broad troughiness well back
to the west/southwest. There may be a shower or two across the
southeast Monday afternoon as this shortwave slides through.
Additionally, cooler air will arrive behind the front, so high
temperatures on Monday will be closer to normal, topping out in
the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Tuesday looks to be the
coolest day of the period as northwest flow increases on the
backside of the trough. Surface high pressure will also build
into the region. Winds will become breezy on Tuesday, with highs
only getting into the upper 40s across the north/Eastern Shore
and in the lower 50s elsewhere. Overnight temps Monday night and
Tuesday night will be chilly, dipping down into the upper 20s
across the west Monday night, and around freezing for everyone
else. Temperatures moderate for the midweek period, as
additional northern stream shortwave energy pinwheels south
across the northern mid-Atlantic. In its wake, shortwave ridging
rebuilds from the SSW, allowing temperatures to quickly recover
into the 60s for the latter half of next week. Early morning
lows bounce back into the 30s Wed, and into the 40s Thu and Fri
mornings.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions prevail through early evening as a cold front
approaches from the NNW. Scattered showers are expected to
overspread the terminals between now and 21z, and will
persist through the first part of the night (before ending from
NNW-SSE later tonight as a cold front moves S of the
terminals). The rain will be on and off and will result in
short-lived VSBY restrictions at most. CIGs may drop to MVFR
near the coast for a few hours around the FROPA (mainly between
02-08z), but are expected to rise to VFR late tonight (although
MVFR CIGs may linger at ECG through 12z). SW winds will gust to
20-25 kt (highest at ORF/ECG) through this afternoon,
diminishing to 5-10 kt in the evening before becoming N
overnight behind the cold front.
Outlook: Mainly dry with VFR conditions Saturday through
Monday. A few passing showers are possible over SE terminals
(ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the
region Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...
Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the
SE coast. Winds were mainly SW 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to
20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft.
High pressure will slide farther off the SE coast this morning.
Otherwise, a cold front will approach from the west today. SW
winds will be mainly 10-15 kt with gusts to near 20 kt this
morning through this aftn in advance of the front. Winds then
become W then NW then N this evening into Sat morning, with the
frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few
kt below SCA criteria, although there is the potential for a
brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 2-9 AM Sat on the bay.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Sat aftn through the rest
of the weekend. Widespread SCAs are likely Mon night into Tue
aftn in the wake of a much stronger cold FROPA.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAM/JKP
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...ERI/TMG