National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL OFF THE COAST COAST WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK LO PRES OFF THE CST...CONTS TO MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE CST TDA.
INITIAL CDFNT HAS SETTLED INTO NC...SECONDARY BNDRY DRAPED CLOSE
BY N OF THE FA ATTM...AND POISED TO PUSH S TDA. ALOFT...A WK S/W
WILL BE CROSSING THE RGN BY THIS AFTN. ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF WK
UVM PTNTLLY ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLD/SCT SHRAS...MNLY ACRS
CNTRL/SRN VA. OTRW...SUBSTANTIAL DRYING FM THE N WILL BE SLO...W/
LO LVL FLO RMNG FM THE NNE. NNE SFC WNDS GUSTY...ESP AT THE
CST...INTO THIS AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M70S AT THE CST TO ARND 80F
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR CONTS TO EXPAND SWD INTO THE
MDATLC RGN TNGT INTO FRI. A PD OF VRY COMFY (ERY) SUMMER WX XPCD
W/ RELATIVELY LO DEWPTS...AND TEMPS AVGG SVRL DEGS F BLO NRML.

ANY LINGERING SHRAS (INLAND) THIS EVE DISSIPATE W/ CLR-PCLDY CONDS
XPCD OVRNGT TNGT. MDLS SUGGEST PTNTL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CNVTN
OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRIMARILY W OF THE FA BOTH THU/FRI.
OTRW...PCLDY W TO MNLY SUNNY ELSW ON THU. 00Z/19 NAM DVLPG MORE
SGFNT AREA OF LO PRES INVOF CSTL NC (ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY ALG
THE CSTL CAROLINAS) BY FRI...SPREADING CLDNS AND LO CHC POPS INTO
PORTIONS OF NE NC AND XTRM SE VA. NOT COMPLETELY ADJUSTING FCST IN
THAT DIRECTION...BUT HAVE ADDED SCT-BKN CLDNS TO THOSE AREAS
(MNLY DUE TO CONTD ONSHR LO LVL FLO). OTRW...MNLY SUNNY CONDS
XPCD.

LO TEMPS TNGT 9AND AGAIN THU NGT) FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS
THU FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S (WELL) INLAND. HI TEMPS
FRI FM THE U70S AT THE CST TO THE M80S (WELL) INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL
PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S SATURDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD FROM AROUND 65 EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER SE OF THE AREA DURING
TODAY. LINGERING LO LVL MOIST COMBINED WITH SOME CLEARING HAS
RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND LWR SC BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE IFR/MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE VSBYS WILL BE ARND UNTIL 13Z OR
14Z THIS MORNG. HI PRES WITH DRIER AIR WILL BLD IN FM THE NNE
LATER THIS MORNG INTO THU. THE HI WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE CST FOR
THU AFTN INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES MOVNG NE TWD THE NRN ATLC WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT FARTHER
S AND E OF THE AREA DURING TODAY. A BRIEF SHALLOW NORTHERLY CAA
SURGE WILL RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT AND SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE CHES
BAY...THE JAMES RIVER AT THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE/HAMPTON ROADS
BRIDGE TUNNEL...AND THE CURRITUCK SND UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNG. AS
FOR THE OCEAN...NNE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING TODAY
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE N. THE HI WILL
LINGER OFF THE NE CST THU AFTN THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY 10-15 KT ONSHR FLO...WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEAS. THE HI SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE
CST DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE S AND
REMAINING AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG