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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT N OF THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT W/ A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA.
EARLIER TSTMS WERE GENLY SUB-SEVERE ALTHOUGH DID HAVE A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS THAT APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS WITH RESPECT TO WIND
GUSTS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
MOVING ESE FROM WV INTO VA OVER THE PAST 2 HRS...ALTHOUGH THESE
ARE GENLY WEAKENING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY SEVERE
THREAT IS OVER BUT WILL KEEP 20-40% CHC SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EARLY
AM HRS AS THE SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS
UPSTREAM TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA (AND THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS TO THE W/SW OF RICHMOND).

LOW TEMPS MAINLY 60-65...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S OVER THE FAR
NORTH/NE WHERE SKIES BECOME MCLR BY MORNING.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR NRN VA ON FRI...W/ SFC HI PRES PASSING BY TO
THE NNE OF FA. RESULT WILL BE ONSHR SFC WNDS...AND CORRESPONDING
COOLING. WILL HAVE HIGHEST AMT OF CLDNS FM CNTRL VA ON S...AND LMT
CHC POPS TO MUCH OF THAT AREA (HIGHEST FAR SCNTRL VA INTO INTR NE
NC).

FM FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...WK LO PRES TRACKS E INTO THE CNTRL OH
VLY...RESULTING IN INCRSG MSTR INTO THE MDATLC RGN. FNTL BNDRY
RMNS S ACRS NRN NC...KEEPING ONSHR WNDS OVR MUCH OF THE FA
(THROUGH SAT). IN LEANING CLOSER TO 12Z/16 ECMWF WILL HAVE
HIGHEST (CHC) POPS INLAND FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH WILL HAVE
VRB CLDNS OR MCLDY CONDS.

HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO L/M80S INLAND. LO TEMPS
FRI NGT FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M70S AT THE
CST TO 75 TO 80F INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN H5 RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BUILD OVER THEN EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE WARM/MILD SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BACK FROM THE W/SW TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT REMAIN
AOB 10 KT. SOME RESIDUAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AM HRS BUT
COVERAGE TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. ALSO...GENLY EXPECT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N/NE FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. E/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JDM

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