Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 250659
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FYI...echoes drifting e across somerset county md appear to be
chaff as sat pictures/sfc obs do not support pcpn in that area.
Otw...expect mainly clear skies as high pres builds into the
region from the w. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).
Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri.
Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected
to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend.
Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24
hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected.
Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.
-- Changed Discussion --No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft
builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs
through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.
-- End Changed Discussion --
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond
1. 9.13" 1889
2. 8.98" 1873
3. 8.87" 1972
4. 8.67" 1886
5. 8.59" 2003
6. 8.41" 2016 (to date)
Average 1st 90 deg day:
1st 90 deg day last year (2015):