Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270039 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 839 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO PUSH E...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W/SW. CLEAR SKIES/GENLY LIGHT WINDS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY...MORE SO OVER THE RURAL AREAS (WITH SOME SPOTS INTO THE 40S). THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BUT WILL ALSO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEW PTS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THE VERY LOW READINGS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...BUT WILL TEND TO BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW PTS...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT MINS...WHICH SHOULD AVG IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS (MAINLY PIEDMONT). STILL PROBABLY TOO DRY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH IF ANY FROST FORMATION SO WILL NOT MENTION FROST IN THE FORECAST. WARMEST MINS...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BAY AND OCEAN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SFC HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON THRU TUE NIGHT. RETURN S-SW FLOW & RISING H85 HEIGHTS LEADS TO A WRMG TREND. XPECT PT TO MSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS MON FROM THE M-U60S ACROSS THE ERN SHORE...U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY WITH M70S PSBL ACROSS NEAR AVC. WAA KICKS IN MON NIGHT WITH LOWS U40S-L50S. H85 TMPS 15-17C TUE RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE M-U70S CSTL AREAS TO L80S WEST OF THE BAY. NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS KEEP FA DRY THRU 12Z WED. WARM TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 55-60...XCPT L60S AT THE BEACHES. FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLN WRT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED AS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW / DEEPENING LOW AND BEST DYNAMICS ORIENTED WELL OFF TO THE N-NE SPRT A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT. KEPT 20-30 POPS ACROSS WRN MOST CNTYS THRU 18Z...THEN A 30-40 POP WEST OF THE BAY AND 20 POP COASTAL AREAS WED AFTRN. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS PCPN MIGHT NOT MAKE IT TO SERN AREAS UNTIL AFTR 21Z. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS... XPCTD QPF ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. TMPS TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW FAST PCPN MOVES ON. 70-75 NWRN HALF....75-80 SERN HALF DUE TO DYTME HTNG AND A LATER FROPA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DETERMINING HOW THE CHANGING UPPER FLOW WILL EVOLVE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THE EXTREME CUTOFF SYSTEM IT WAS DEVELOPING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF IN THE EAST. THIS IS CLOSER TO EARLIER GFS FORECASTS. THE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR NOW. THIS MEANS MAINLY A MUCH COLDER WEEKEND COMING UP. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THEN THE STRONGER COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. FOR NOW THINK THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO PUSH THE RAIN BACK TO THE COAST. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. OTHER THEN THAT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE WEST COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK. CLR SKIES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS HAVE DIED OFF...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATER WED/WED NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS ARE DIMINISHING BUT STILL KEEPING SMALL CRAFT UP INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL ALL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...WRS MARINE...JAB

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