Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241417 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1017 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front drops south across the region today. High pressure tracks across Southeast Canada early next week. A second, stronger cold front will cross the region later Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Backdoor cold front rather easy to identify late this morning as it begins to move south across the lwr MD ern shore. Winds shift to the NNE along with a BKN-OVC ST deck between 1K to 1.5K ft. This trend expected to continue thru out the day as the front sags south. Plenty of heating ahead of it allows temps to rise into the 80s under mstly sunny skies. Tmps tricky post fropa as readings may hold steady or fall due to the cloud coverage and wind shift, especially across the lwr MD ern shore. High-res models continue to show an area of rather shallow lift along the front as it drops across the southern half of the area from late aftn through about midnight. Expect most areas to remain dry, but thnk sct showers will be possible after 18Z, mainly across the piedmont and I-85 corridor. QPF will be minimal with still relatively dry air aloft. and only weak isentropic lift. PVS DSCN: Front drops south of the area late tonight, with sct showers along the boundary likely lingering into the morning hours. Clouds will be on the increase post-frontal, especially inland with post frontal nne flow as high pressure ridges down and cool air wedge begins to set up. Accordingly beefed up sky cover tonight and into Sunday. Lows Sat night in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Front continues to push south into the Carolinas Sunday in response to high pressure sliding across Southeast Canada. This high extends south across the Mid Atlantic Region Sunday and Sunday night. Have again increased SKY cover to account for increasing low level moisture/ongoing weak isentropic upglide. Overcast conditions and pockets of light rain or drizzle remain a good bet along and west of the I-95 corridor. Pops remain only in slight chc range with minimal chances for measuring pcpn. Nonetheless, drizzly and overcast inland...a mix of some sun along with clouds along the coast. Highs Sun 70-75. Lows Sun night in the mid 50s to lwr 60s. Cooler readings in the lower 50s with clearing sky across Eastern shore. Upper ridge pivots to the coast on Monday, before sliding offshore Monday night. At the sfc, high pressure moves north of New England Monday with the next front approaching from the west during the afternoon. Across the piedmont, cool air wedge will hold on one more day...with lingering clouds, onshore flow maintaining cool temps. Monday highs generally in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s to around 80 along the SE coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong cold front progged to drop into the region Monday night ahead of a potent northern stream trough. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance in good agreement with pushing the front across the region late Monday night through Tuesday. Moisture increases along the front with precipitable waters climbing above 1.75 inches. Instability progged to be marginal ahead of the front due to cloud cover and poor lapse rates, However, will keep mention of slight chance thunder in the area of highest showalter values (elevated instability) and shear around 40 knots. Both GFS and ECMWF models push the front across the region rather quickly Tuesday with much of the area seeing a decent chance for shower. Have capped at high end chance. High pressure builds in from the west late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Will linger POPs over the southeast half of the forecast area, but expect much of the precip to push offshore by late Tuesday night. High pressure prevails through the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures will average close to seasonable averages, with highs Tuesday ranging from the mid 70`s northwest to around 80 southeast. Highs Wednesday through Friday generally in the 70`s with lows in the 50`s, expect in the 60`s southeast. Based on the latest statistical guidance, the Piedmont may see some readings in the 40`s Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly clear skies this morning as weak high pressure slides over the area. Given light winds and still wet grounds, noting areas of low Stratus/fog across the SE coastal plain, impacting coastal terminals. Expected low clouds/fog will scour out quickly after sunrise this morning, improving quickly from LIFR/IFR at ECG to MVFR/VFR after 13z. Thereafter, primarily VFR conditions expected. A backdoor cold front drops across the area through the day Saturday...primarily spreading widespread high clouds across the area during the day. Given the abundant/recent rainfall from the past several days and persistent onshore/ne winds, expect SCT cumulus to develop during the aftn...especially near coastal sites. KSBY will likely experience MVFR cigs given frontal timing, and Hi-res models continue to support VFR farther inland. Could see some Sct showers west of KRIC after 21z this aftn, but minimal support for pcpn at terminals with plenty of dry air in place aloft. The front pushes south of Albemarle Sound after midnight Saturday night with stronger central high pressure sliding across Southeast Canada and building down into the Mid Atlantic Region through Sunday night before sliding off the New England coast early next week. Areas of fog and some low stratus expected once again across the southern terminals late Tonight into early Sunday morning. Outlook... Cigs trend back toward VFR for most locales along the coast as cool air wedge sets up across the piedmont. Lingering low clouds/light rain possible at KRIC and west. && .MARINE... Weak pressure gradient observed over the waters early this morning as a cold front drops into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Winds are generally out of the west-southwest at or below 10 knots. Seas 3- 4 feet and waves 1-2 feet. The weak front drops southward over the waters today, with flow becoming northernly. 850mb temps dip slightly behind the front, but a lack of low level cold air advection and weak gradient winds expected to keep winds sub-SCA this afternoon. Hi-resolution guidance has trended lower on speeds as well. Waves build to 2-3 feet late morning/early afternoon. For the coastal water, distant tropical cyclone Karl will aid in building seas to 4-5 feet this afternoon through tonight. Have raised SCA headlines for all coastal waters as a result. Expect a few gusts to around 20 knots, so have opted against SCA for hazardous seas. High pressure builds southward over the waters tonight, with northernly winds diminishing to around 10-15 knots. Seas subside to 3-4 feet Sunday afternoon. Waves 1-2 feet. The next cold front approaching from the northwest will shift winds back to the south to southeast Monday. Marginal southerly SCA conditions are possible ahead of the front late Monday and Monday night behind a lifting warm front. The front progged to reach the waters Tuesday morning, pushing offshore Tuesday afternoon. SCA conditions expected behind the front as a significantly cooler air mass and strong high pressure builds in from the northwest. && .HYDROLOGY... The Cashie River at Windsor continues to fall but remains in the moderate flood range. The river is forecast to slowly fall below flood stage late Sunday night. See FLSAKQ for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...LKB/SAM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...SAM HYDROLOGY...

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