Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160314 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1014 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series of weak low pressure systems will track along that boundary resulting in periods of unsettled weather through the first half of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The current surface analysis depicts a broad area of ~1030mb high pressure from the Ern Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Aloft, the flow is WNW locally with a weak shortwave trough pushing across the central Appalachians in the RRQ of a 110kt upper jet off the Srn New England coast. This is producing areas of light rain across the mountains of WV/VA and into N-central VA. This is expected to gradually push ewd overnight with likely PoPs (~60%) over portions of central VA tapered to low chc POPS most other areas as light rain will encounter drier air closer to the coast. This is a low QPF setup so despite likely PoPs, QPF will be less than 0.10" for most locations. Sky cover is overcast for much of the area with the exception of coastal NE NC where the sky remains partly cloudy, but will become cloudy overnight. Temperatures range from the upper 30s/low 40s over the ern third of the area to the low/mid 40s over the piedmont where cloud bases are lower. Temperatures should remain steady for much of the night, but could fall a few for degrees over the Lower MD Ern Shore under stronger influence of the high. Current near-term data suggests temperatures will be a few degrees higher from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore, so P-type is expected to be rain for all areas. Forcing and deeper moisture genly wanes after 12-15Z, though skies will remain overcast and enough low level moisture lingers for a chance of drizzle into the aftn even as the mid levels dry out. Cool and damp with CAD setup so highs will only avg 40-45 F most zones, except for mid-upper 40s to around 50 F far SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the SRN Great Lakes on Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area. Latest trends suggest another wet/dreary day, with likely POPS over the northern 1/2 of the CWA, less rain and lower POPS but still mainly cloudy across the S. Temps moderate but with all the clouds, highs likely do not get out of the 50s (will maintain low 60s far SE for now). Cold Front passe through Wed, and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels, should see some breaks in the clouds and a warm day with highs at least in the 60s. Showers will be most likely across the SE where drier air is slower to arrive, though will keep a 20-30% POP farther NW as well as upper level shortwave will still lag behind and pass into the region by aftn. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period begins Wednesday night with the expectation of above normal temperatures. There is some uncertainty with the details of PCPN. Plenty of Pacific moisture will swish across the CONUS and an upper level ridge will briefly build over the eastern part of the nation around Friday and Saturday. A cold front and associated short wave move off to the southeast Wednesday night with any showers ending that evening. Dry weather is expected Thursday into early Friday. A short wave may bring a few showers Friday and Friday night especially southern portions with POPS set no higher than 30 percent. During the weekend...a complex low pressure system and cutoff upper level low develop in the Plains States. PCPN associated with this system should stay to the west through Sunday. Fairly consistent day to day temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid-level clouds will continue to filter into the region through the first half of the night. Mid-level clouds will lower to MVFR after 12Z at RIC and after 18Z at the other terminals. A weak disturbance will also bring a chance of light rain after 06Z for mainly the Piedmont/RIC. Winds will generally remain light and out of the east through the forecast period. Outlook: Lowering ceilings will prevail into early Tuesday as a warm front approaches and moves through the area Tuesday. Some IFR will be possible Monday night and early Tuesday. Conditions improve late Tuesday through Wednesday but there will be a chance for showers Wednesday as a cold front moves through. The weather improves once again Thursday and Friday as the cold front moves south of the area and high pressure takes over from the north. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tngt thru Tue. High pressure will build over the nrn Mid Atlc tngt into Mon aftn, then slides out to sea Mon night into Tue, as a cold front pushes into/thru the MS valley. NNE winds 15 kt or less expected tngt, then NE or E 10 kt or less Mon. Winds become SE then S on Tue and increase to around 10 kt by evening, as the cold front moves into the mtns. SW winds 10 to 15 kt Tue night into Wed morning, become W then NW Wed aftn and evening, as the front pushes acrs the waters and off the coast. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...AJB/LSA MARINE...TMG

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