Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 160314
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1014 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure systems will track along that boundary
resulting in periods of unsettled weather through the first half
of the upcoming week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The current surface analysis depicts a broad area of ~1030mb
high pressure from the Ern Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic
and New England. Aloft, the flow is WNW locally with a weak
shortwave trough pushing across the central Appalachians in the
RRQ of a 110kt upper jet off the Srn New England coast. This is
producing areas of light rain across the mountains of WV/VA and
into N-central VA. This is expected to gradually push ewd
overnight with likely PoPs (~60%) over portions of central VA
tapered to low chc POPS most other areas as light rain will
encounter drier air closer to the coast. This is a low QPF setup
so despite likely PoPs, QPF will be less than 0.10" for most
locations. Sky cover is overcast for much of the area with the
exception of coastal NE NC where the sky remains partly cloudy,
but will become cloudy overnight. Temperatures range from the
upper 30s/low 40s over the ern third of the area to the low/mid
40s over the piedmont where cloud bases are lower. Temperatures
should remain steady for much of the night, but could fall a few
for degrees over the Lower MD Ern Shore under stronger
influence of the high. Current near-term data suggests
temperatures will be a few degrees higher from the Nrn Neck to
the Ern Shore, so P-type is expected to be rain for all areas.
Forcing and deeper moisture genly wanes after 12-15Z, though
skies will remain overcast and enough low level moisture lingers
for a chance of drizzle into the aftn even as the mid levels
dry out. Cool and damp with CAD setup so highs will only avg
40-45 F most zones, except for mid-upper 40s to around 50 F far
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the SRN Great Lakes on
Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area. Latest
trends suggest another wet/dreary day, with likely POPS over the
northern 1/2 of the CWA, less rain and lower POPS but still
mainly cloudy across the S. Temps moderate but with all the
clouds, highs likely do not get out of the 50s (will maintain
low 60s far SE for now). Cold Front passe through Wed, and with
deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels, should see some breaks
in the clouds and a warm day with highs at least in the 60s.
Showers will be most likely across the SE where drier air is
slower to arrive, though will keep a 20-30% POP farther NW as
well as upper level shortwave will still lag behind and pass
into the region by aftn.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period begins Wednesday night with the expectation
of above normal temperatures. There is some uncertainty with the
details of PCPN. Plenty of Pacific moisture will swish across
the CONUS and an upper level ridge will briefly build over the
eastern part of the nation around Friday and Saturday.
A cold front and associated short wave move off to the southeast
Wednesday night with any showers ending that evening. Dry
weather is expected Thursday into early Friday. A short wave may
bring a few showers Friday and Friday night especially southern
portions with POPS set no higher than 30 percent. During the
weekend...a complex low pressure system and cutoff upper level
low develop in the Plains States. PCPN associated with this
system should stay to the west through Sunday.
Fairly consistent day to day temperatures are expected Thursday
through Sunday with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid-level clouds will continue to filter into the region
through the first half of the night. Mid-level clouds will lower
to MVFR after 12Z at RIC and after 18Z at the other terminals.
A weak disturbance will also bring a chance of light rain after
06Z for mainly the Piedmont/RIC. Winds will generally remain
light and out of the east through the forecast period.
Outlook: Lowering ceilings will prevail into early Tuesday as a
warm front approaches and moves through the area Tuesday. Some IFR
will be possible Monday night and early Tuesday. Conditions improve
late Tuesday through Wednesday but there will be a chance for
showers Wednesday as a cold front moves through. The weather
improves once again Thursday and Friday as the cold front moves
south of the area and high pressure takes over from the north.
No headlines in the short term tngt thru Tue. High pressure will
build over the nrn Mid Atlc tngt into Mon aftn, then slides out
to sea Mon night into Tue, as a cold front pushes into/thru the
MS valley. NNE winds 15 kt or less expected tngt, then NE or E
10 kt or less Mon. Winds become SE then S on Tue and increase to
around 10 kt by evening, as the cold front moves into the mtns.
SW winds 10 to 15 kt Tue night into Wed morning, become W then
NW Wed aftn and evening, as the front pushes acrs the waters and
off the coast.