Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210002 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 802 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the region through tonight then remains in place through the weekend. This will result in dry and hot conditions with heat building through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Weak high pressure is moving over the Mid-Atlantic states tonight as the upper trough off the New England coast exits and the large ridge over the central US builds eastward. The radar still shows some lingering convection from the heating of the day and the interaction with sea breeze and outflow boundaries. These lingering showers should continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours. Have updated the forecast to show this dissipation. Once the daytime cu is gone, do not see much forcing to keep clouds going and the mos guidance agrees so have reduced sky cover as most areas should see mainly clear sky overnight. For now have kept the temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Some low stratus is possible early Thursday morning along the lower Bay with some patchy fog inland. Any fog or low clouds will burn of quickly giving way to mostly sunny skies. Anomalous upper ridge over the nation`s mid section continues to build eastward Thursday and Friday. Thursday`s onshore flow suppresses the heat for one more day. Similar thicknesses and low level temps to today will result in highs back in the upper 80s to around 90. Dry with a mostly sunny sky. Lows Thursday night in the upper 60s to low 70s under a mostly clear sky. The upper ridge expands eastward Friday, reaching the Piedmont. Highs forecast in the mid 90`s with heat indices around 100. Pressure falls along the lee side of the mountains will sharpen a thermal trough over the Piedmont, but a lack of moisture and appreciable forcing results in silent POPs. However, will see more afternoon cumulus. Have added a slight chance of showers and storms in the far west on Saturday as a few storms could develop over the higher terrain and drift east. Highs in the mid 90s with heat indices of 100-104. The heat will build in more on Sunday as highs reach the upper 90s with heat indices between 105 to 109. There could be an afternoon tstm with the thermal trough remaining overhead. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A thermal trough is expected to remain in place Mon-Wed for continued very warm to hot conditions. 595dm upper ridge also remains situated off the SE coast. A slight buckle in the ridge across the Northeast/Mid- Atlantic due to a weak upper trough passage will knock a few degrees off max temps but still remain above normal. Highs in the mid/upr 90s Monday and low to mid 90s Tue/Wed. Thunderstorm chances will mainly be tied to the aftn/eve hours. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Isolated showers had developed along the sea breeze as of 18z over the lower portion of Eastern Shore and the Peninsula moving into the james River. These showers have remained clear of the TAF sites. The CU field was expanding across the entire region and periods of SCT- BKN ceilings between 3-4 kft can be expected at all TAF sites through 00Z. Showers activity and possible a few storms should remain confined to the sea breeze and could come close to SBY...ORF and ECG late afternoon and early evening. Expect VFR conditions to prevail though this afternoon and evening. Overnight some patchy fog is possible, but not likely. Do not restrictions at the TAFs site overnight. The only exception could be ORF where some models try to develop some stratus over the lower Bay, advecting it into ORF between 10z and 12z Thursday morning. There is not a lot of confidence in this and will only add SCT008 to the ORF TAF for now. OUTLOOK...Dry weather and mainly VFR conditions are expected Saturday. Only flight restrictions would be from the low chance for patchy fog or some low stratus from 08-12Z Thu morning. && .MARINE... No headlines necessary over the next several days as high pressure builds in from the north through tonight. The high becomes centered off the mid-Atlantic/SE coast Thu-Fri as another weak front approaches from the NW Fri night but washes out before reaching the area. Winds will be light from the E-NE (<10kt) through tonight. Winds then transition to the E/SE Thu then S/SW Fri/Sat. The pressure gradient will increase a bit on Fri, so winds will avg around 15kt late Fri/Fri night ahead of the front. Waves over the Bay will avg 1-2 ft, with seas over coastal waters 2-3 ft (3-4 ft late Fri/Fri night). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...ESS SHORT TERM...SAM/JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...JAO MARINE...JDM/LKB

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