Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241541 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1041 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~993 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST RADAR INDICATES BULK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FARTHER INLAND. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS IS ACTUALLY A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM READINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING). LAGGING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL PIVOT EAST ACRS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK OFF A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTN WRN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING EAST TO THE COAST. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH MODEL SFC WET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING...THINKING IS THAT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW IN BY THIS AFTN ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION. GENLY EXPECT NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD ERN SHORE LATE THIS AFTN AS THIS WOULD TEND TO BE THE AREA WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MOST LEFTOVER MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT MANY AREAS W OF THE BAY WILL SEE READINGS HOLD IN THE 30S UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHILE NE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS FALL W/ THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY TUNED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURS NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST OBS REFLECT WIDESPREAD IFR W/SOME LCL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY AFTN. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC). NOT EXPECTING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT TERMINAL WITH ANY RA/SN AND CHCS APPEAR A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER, SO HV HELD OUT ONCE AGAIN FOR 12Z ISSUANCE.ONCE THE MOISTURE CLEARS BY MID AFTN TO ERY EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT (UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH VALLEY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630- 631-633-635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM/SAM

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