Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150742 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 242 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough of low pressure and its accompanying rain will exit the coast early today. Much warmer conditions expected Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front. That front drops through the local area late Friday, bringing colder weather for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak trough in zonal flow aloft crossing the region attm...and will be to/off the coast through mid morning. RA accompanying that trough will be ending between about 11-14Z/15 to be followed by VRB clouds-mostly cloudy and warmer conditions the rest of the day w/ SW winds increasing/becoming gusty to 20-25 mph. ISOLD-SCT SHRAs will be possible...esp NW...this afternoon. Highs from the m-u60s on the ern shore and nrn NC Outer Banks to the l-m70s elsehere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tonight will be unseasonably warm...lows mainly from 55 to 60 F. Highs Fri will range from in the u60s far N and across the ern shore to the l-m70s elsewhere. A cold front will be pressing SE into the FA Fri afternoon...accompanied by SHRAs (PoPs increasing to 50-60% by aftn). Otherwise...mostly cloudy N...partly sunny then mostly cloudy S Fri. Turning much colder Fri night and Sat as the front initially shifts winds to the N Fri night with the front stalling just to our S (by early Sat morning). Models a little slower w/ return of moisture Sat morning...w/ the main pcpn holding off until afternoon. Thermal profile on most models cold enough for wintry ptype at the start...mainly over the Piedmont...but will have PoPs those areas aob 30%. Rising thicknesses as atmoshere moistens into/through the afternoon combined w/ sfc temperatures sufficiently above freezing will lead to mainly RA over the FA (limiting any mention of SN w/ RA to far NNW areas - little or no SN accum expected attm). Low Fri night in the u20s-l30s N to the u30s- around 40F SE. Highs Sat from the u30s-l40s N and central areas to the l-m40s SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly RA Sat eve as sfc lo pres exits the coast...then heads out to sea by Sun morning. Will have high PoPs (60-70% W to 70-90% E) Sat eve...decreasing W-E after midnight. Mild wx is expected for Sunday as high pressure ridges back into the region. Expect highs in the mid to upper 50s Sunday afternoon with sunshine. Temperatures fall back into the mid to upper 30s on Sunday night. A warm front moves through the area Monday bringing another chance for rain showers by Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 60s SE to the lower 50s NW. The region remains in southwest flow through mid-week leading to highs near 70 and lows in the 50s for many spots on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front looks to approach the region late in the day on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Generally VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF forecast period. BKN-OVC CIGs 6-12 kft w/ SCT -RA moving through the region through about 12-14Z/15. SW winds increase/become gusty to 20-25 kt today w/ SCT-BKN mainly mid-high level clouds after -RA early this morning. VRB clouds/CIGs tonight into Fri as local area remains in warm sector. The next cold front crosses the FA late Fri with SCT-likely SHRAs Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls over NC Sat morning with moisture returning with RA likely Sat afternoon/evening...possibly mixed with a little -SN at the start at KRIC/KSBY. Turning drier w/ VFR wx Sun. && .MARINE... High pressure slides off the southeast coast later this afternoon. Winds have flipped around to primarily the southwest and are expected to remain around 10 knots through the afternoon. Winds pick up overnight to around 15 knots, with possibly a few gusts approaching 20 knots over the Bay. Seas are expected to remain around 3 to 4 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds remain out of the southwest around 15 knots on Thursday and increase Thursday evening as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for at least the Bay late Thursday through Friday. The front crosses the region Friday evening, turning winds to the NW and leading to continued breezy conditions behind the front. Winds diminish on Saturday before the next system potentially impacts the region late Saturday into Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Well above normal temperatures Thu/Fri. Record highs are listed below: * Thu 2/15 Fri 2/16 * RIC: 82 (1989) 78 (1976) * ORF: 80 (1989) 77 (1990) * SBY: 76 (1989) 73 (1976) * ECG: 78 (1989) 80 (1945) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. Further troubleshooting will continue Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...AJB CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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