Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240203 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1003 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warm and humid conditions will continue overnight. A weakening cold front will gradually push across the area on Monday and stall across the Carolinas through the middle of the upcoming week. Temperatures will cool down to near normal levels by Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Current analysis indicating weak sfc low pressure centered over NW PA, with westerly flow aloft. Coverage of showers/tstms remains highest in NE NC and far SE VA, with limited radar coverage elsewhere. However, an isolated tstm just developed over western portions of metro Richmond, and airmass remains modestly unstable even well after sunset. Have maintained likely PoPs over NE NC/SE VA through midnight, with 20-30% most other areas. Latest high-res/CAMs have backed off a bot on coverage of storms after midnight, so have scaled back in the gridded forecast (but still maintained 40-50% PoPs along the coast and generally 20-30% farther inland). Continued warm and muggy overnight, though areas that received rainfall have cooled off rather significantly, so lows will range mainly from 70 to 75 F (locally in the upper 70s).
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front slated to push into northern portions of the FA on Monday while weakening. Deep moisture shifts toward and south of the VA/NC border and therefore will favor highest PoPs Mon similarly shifting south across SE VA & NE NC with 20% PoPs for the N. Slightly less humid Monday over the NW CWA. Not quite as hot, with highs Mon 90 to 95 F over most of the area. This will preclude the need for additional heat headlines. Front stalls in NC Tue, with mainly diurnal tstms possible again over the S (20-35%), and 10-15% N. Seasonable highs upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday still looks to be the nicest day we`ve seen in awhile temperature-wise. Sfc high pressure traverses New England with max temps only reaching the the mid/upr 80s with somewhat lower humidity levels. Stalled frontal boundary to our south will still keep a chance of mainly aft/eve shwrs/tstms in the forecast over our southern FA (PoPs 20-40%). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Mid-Atlantic region will generally be situated between a trough off the Carolina Coast and trough digging through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. The Great Lakes/Ohio Valley trough gradually drops into the region Thursday night and Friday as an associated cold front approaches from the NW. PoPs are mainly aob 20% Wednesday night/Thursday and then increase to 30-40% chc for showers/tstms Friday ahead of the approaching front. Highs Thursday/Friday are mainly in the upper 80s to around 90, with mid 80s at the immediate coast, and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. The trough is progged to settle over the region by Saturday/Sunday with the cold front pushing through Friday night into Saturday, before stalling off the Carolina coast. Forecast PoPs for showers/tstms are ~40% Friday night, and then generally 20-30% NW to 30-40% SE next weekend. High temperatures trend down into the mid 80s as the trough settles overhead with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Numerous thunderstorms stretching from central NC to SE Virginia moving slowly east. Storms are not affecting any TAF sites but there is a chance for ECG and ORF to see some scattered storms before midnight. Also, a complex of showers and storms from NY to Md may affect the Eastern Shore Md and SBY before midnight. Showers and/or VCTS reflected in TAFs for this potential but don`t have strong confidence at this time. Some patchy fog is possible across the Piedmont during the overnight but am not expecting any significant impact to TAF sites at this time. Outlook: Convective continues for south central VA and NC for Monday/Tuesday. VFR should dominate through this period, with periods of sub-VFR possible in heavier showers/TSRA. A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Decided to put up small craft advisory for the Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound and for the lower James River. Winds have picked up over the waters due to increasing pressure gradient. Expect this to be a short term event until around 4 am. Seas will be 2 feet nearshore and up to 4 feet 20 nm. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the lower bay and Atlantic coastal waters til around midnight. Winds will remain mostly SW on Monday but expected to be below SCA criteria. A frontal boundary crosses the area early Tuesday bringing a windshift to the E-NE. Winds are expected to generally remain around 15 knots behind the frontal boundary. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet with some areas to around 5 feet at 20 nm in the far northern zones. The extended marine period will be dominated by mainly weak onshore flow as a frontal boundary stalls across the region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the forecast period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Did not set any records over the past few days (even with the 101 degree temperature reached at RIC on Sat). * Date: Sun(7/23) * RIC: 103/1952 * ORF: 103/2011 * SBY: 103/2011 * ECG: 104/1952
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM/JEF MARINE...AJB/JEF CLIMATE...AKQ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.