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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160122
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
922 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1022MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALOFT, A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW EXISTS, WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. MEANWHILE, WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE OF THE LOWER GRT LAKES HAVE
TRIGGERED A FEW ISOLATED SHRAS THIS EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE INVOF FNTL BNDRY DRAPED NW-SE
FM SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO OH VLY THIS EVE. HRRR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
THIS ACTIVITY JUST TO OUR NORTH, THOUGH POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TWO OVER FAR NORTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER,
WICOMICO, AND WORCESTER COUNTIES (US-50 AND NORTH) THROUGH ABOUT
6Z/2A OR SO BEFORE IT AND THE ASSD WARM FRONT CLEAR THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A MILD,
COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT, UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. EARLY
MORNING LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE L/M60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY FM THE N BEGINS TO PUSH SLOLY S THU...REACHING NRN
AREAS OF FA IN THE AFTN...THEN TO THE S THU NGT INTO FRI. NOT THE
BEST FORCING OR DYNAMICS FOR ORGANIZED CNVTN...THOUGH SOME POOLING
OF SFC-LO LVL DEWPTS COMBINED W/ HEATING PTNTLLY ENOUGH FOR
ISOLD/SCT CNVTN. WILL CARRY 20-40% POPS ACRS THE FA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. THE BNDRY SHIFTS S TO NR OR JUST S OF THE NC/VA BRDR ON
FRI...W/ PSBL FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN FM CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NE NC. WHILE
ENOUGH TIME FOR DECENT WRMG ON THU (BEFORE THE BNDRY REACHES THE
FA)...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE TEMPS REACH THE 80S XCP RIGHT AT THE
CST (ON THE ERN SHR). PSNY THU...THEN VRB CLDS OR MCLDY THU NGT
INTO FRI.

THE BNDRY TO RMN NRLY STNRY INVOF NRN NC LT FRI THROUGH SAT. SFC
HI PRES PASSING BY N AND THROUGH NEW ENG WILL LEAD TO ONSHR
WINDS...CONTD VRB CLDS OR MCLDY CONDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN. HI
TEMPS SAT FM ARND 70F AT THE CST...TO MNLY THE M/U70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN ADDITION TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD
WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN H5 RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS OVER THEN EASTERN U.S. MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW MUCH SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO A LACK OF A TRIGGER TO GET ORGANIZED
TSTMS GOING...WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES TO THE 20-30% RANGE REACH DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MILD SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THEN 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED SW TO NE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE FRONT LIFTED...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING AND CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD THU AFTN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BEFORE STALLING OVER NC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS (SAVE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS). WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES UNCHANGED. WINDS TURN SW TO W
LATE TONIGHT AND DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THURS...CROSSING THE WATERS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW TO
THE N/NE POST FRONTAL...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
E-SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM