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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
720 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WANE THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL SFC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (IT IS BEING PULLED IN ON SW FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC) TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
HAMPER ANY CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S
REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCT SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALONG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FORECAST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE/ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...MPR