Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010834 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach from the west during today, then crosses the region this evening into Saturday morning. The front will then remain nearly stationary across North Carolina from Saturday afternoon into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Early this morning, a lee side trough or dewpoint/instability gradient remained over central VA. Latest radar showed an area of showers with a few embedded tstms movng NE fm ncntrl NC and scntrl VA. This pcpn will push ene acrs wrn and cntrl counties over the next several hrs. Otherwise, potent shortwave energy digs over the eastern Great Lakes and into the Saint Lawrence River Valley today into this evening. The associated cold front will push into wrn VA by early this evening, then crosses the CWA this evening into Saturday morning. The combination of the lingering lee side trough, increasing heat/instability and the approach of the cold front fm the W, will result in more sctd showers and tstms developing later this aftn into this evening. High temps will be in the upper 80s to near 90 today with dwpts in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitable waters will rise to above 1.5 inches. MLCAPE values climb to around 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg, and along with marginal/decent deep layer shear, and modest mid level lapse rates could result in a few severe tstms fm cntrl VA into the VA nrn neck and into the Lower MD Ern Shore. Thus, SPC has placed this area in a slight risk today with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. The remainder of the fcst area is in a marginal risk. Otherwise, any tstms this aftn into this evening could contain gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Pops will decrease fm WNW to ESE tngt into Saturday morning with drying occurring, as the cold front drops acrs the region and into NC. Lows tngt will range fm the mid 60s NW to the lower 70s ESE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short term guidance continues to stall the front over North Carolina Saturday aftn through Sunday. Deep moisture pushes south of the local area Saturday, along with the best chances for measurable precip. Will keep mention of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon for far southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina as moisture begins to return in low level southwest flow. Highs in the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky north to mostly cloudy south. Front remains in the vicinity of northern North Carolina Saturday night through Sunday as several waves in the westerly flow ride along the front. Moisture also pools along the boundary with precipitable water values around 2 inches. Good storm motion may limit the overall potential for excessive rainfall Sunday, but anomalous moisture and several upper waves will likely result in periods of heavy rainfall. Highs Sunday only in the low 80`s under a mostly cloudy sky.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A frontal boundary shifts northward through the area Sunday night into Independence Day as a trough drops into the Great Lakes and a ridge builds over the East Coast. The general consensus is for the trough to push through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by a pattern that features a weak trough off the coast, with a mid/upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday. The 30/12z GFS remains more amplified during the Tuesday-Thursday period than GEFS mean and 30/12z ECMWF. PoPs will generally be diurnally driven Monday and Tuesday, averaging 30-40% across the area. PoPs drop to less than 15% by Wednesday as drier air builds in from the north. A shortwave trough dropping in from the NW could trigger some afternoon/evening showers/tstms by Thursday, but confidence with respect to details is low at this range (a week in advance). Forecast high temperatures are generally in the low/mid 80s Independence Day, and then trend into the mid 80s to around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Lows will average in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Challenging forecast even in the next six hrs wrt fog development given temps not far away from crnt dp tmps and light winds. High Res data suggests best shot for any significant fog should be across the piedmont along with areas that did receive some rain last night. Elected to go with some predominant MVFR BR at RIC late and at PHF next few hours given the some BR development there already. Went with a TEMPO group for BR elsewhere except ORF. Feel patchy BR is possible most areas before 12Z. Challenging forecast wrt pcpn chances at any one TAF site this forecast period as the models suggest sporatic shwrs developing across srn TAF sites by 12z with a rapid increase in mid level moisture E of I95 after 16Z. Given a quiet radar sweep attm, elected to keep pcpn out of forecast given timing uncertainities. Expect a CU deck arnd 5K Ft to rapidly develop given daytime heating acting on available mid level moisture. Best timing for convection will be 18Z-02Z. Outlook: Generally, VFR conds will prevail through much of the period. However, look for potential brief windows of diminished visibility and ceiling at all terminals in numerous showers/tstms each day in the period, mainly during the aftn/evening hours. && .MARINE... A SE wind will average aob 10kt through tonight as high pressure remains situated offshore with a trough inland. A cold front approaches from the NW Friday, which will result in a wind shift to SSW with speeds aob 15kt. The cold front drops into the area Friday evening, and pushes through later Friday night, with high pressure building into the area Saturday. A brief NNW surge is expected in the wake of the front early Saturday morning. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected, but a brief period of wind gusts up to 20kt is possible over the Bay. The wind becomes NE and gradually diminishes Saturday. The front drops south of the area Saturday night into Sunday, and then lifts through the area Sunday night into Monday. A weak front approaches from the NW Tuesday. Seas average 2- 3ft through the period, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. A brief period of 2-3ft waves is possible in the Bay Saturday morning with the aforementioned surge. && .CLIMATE... RIC now up to 7.81" for the month of June through 3pm today. This makes 2016 the 7th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). Also, the May-June total at RIC now stands at 17.60" and is the 2nd wettest (1972 is wettest with 17.69"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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