Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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673 FXUS61 KAKQ 281902 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 302 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...MAINLY TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WAVY/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN/NORTH CENTRAL NC BACK INTO FAR WESTERN VA AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY MID TO LATE AFTN...DRY SLOT ALOFT EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL PUSH EAST, AND WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL LIFT LATE IN THE DAY/THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ACROSS S CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT EVIDENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FAIRLY UNIFORM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF ~25-35KT PORTEND TO SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND SPC CONTINUES MARGINAL RISK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA AND COASTAL NE NC...WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS INLAND NE NC (MAINLY WEST OF THE CHOWAN RIVER). HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN SIMILAR TO WED BUT WITH THE SHARPER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NUDGED FARTHER SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S SW. TONIGHT... THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXITS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRI AS SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS FINAL WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOW-MID 70S SW. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION INTO SAT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE WRN FRINGES OF CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SAT MORNING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINSSAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR APART. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT. GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...WHILE SREF/NAM ARE LESS BULLISH UNTIL AFTER SUN MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT PRECIP WORDING LIMITED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR WRN HALF OF CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ERN HALF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (MID- UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES). HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 FAR SW COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INLAND NE NC. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH/MID 50S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE... A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT LAKES IS RIDGING SE TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK LOCALLY WITH AN E-NE WIND AVERAGING AOB 10KT. LINGERING SWELL IS PRODUCING 3-4FT SEAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EWD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD TO THE VA/NC BORDER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-4FT N...TO 2- 3FT S ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. A NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15- 20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL DEPARTURES OF EARLIER THIS MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LWR EASTERN SHORE SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/MAM SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ/DAP MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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