Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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840 FXUS61 KAKQ 071839 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 139 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PCPN BEGINNING TO PIVOT TOWARD THE COAST AT NOON WITH SOME R- NOW REPORTED AT ECG. STILL NO PCPN NORTH OF RZZ-ASJ-ECG LINE DUE TO THE DRY AIR OVRHD. HIGH RES DATA CONTG TO SHOW A TIGHT PCPN GRDNT AS THE AFTRN WEARS ON RANGING FROM CAT POPS ALONG CNTYS THAT BRDR THE ALBEMARLE SND TO LOW CHC AT ORF BY 22Z. OTW...CLDY AND COOL. LWR TMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT TMPS...MORE TOWARD THE LAV NMBRS. PVS DCSN: MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN. STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN. OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR- MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW. PVS DSCN: FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM. ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO 21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z. MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER 21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX- RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S. SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN. INITIALLY...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER ACROSS ERN NC TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING PULLING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO ECG AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THERE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT ORF...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN AS THE LOW SHOULD PULL OFF THE COAST BEFORE ANY WORSE CONDITIONS ARRIVE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 6Z - 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...
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UPDATE AS OF 130 PM...EXTENDING GALE WARNING NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL COASTAL WATERS TO THE DELAWARE BORDER. LATEST BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT TO WARRANT A GALE ISSUANCE. ENDING TIME WILL BE 12Z TO MATCH THE PRIOR GALES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUE.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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