Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271844 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 244 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... QUITE A DIFFERENT AFTN ACRS THE FA.../W CLDNS...WIDESPREAD RA...AND TEMPS AVGG 30-35F LWR THAN 24 HRS AGO. CDFNT FM EARLIER TDA HAS SETTLED WELL TO THE SE. ONE FINAL SFC LO PRES WAVE TO TRACK NE AND OFF THE CST OF NC BY LT THIS EVE. MOST WIDESPREAD OF THE RA HAS SHIFTED TO MNLY ALG-E OF I95 SO FAR THIS AFTN...WILL KEEP POPS HI (80-100%) MOST PLACES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE AS TEMPS HOVER MNLY FM 40-45F. PCPN GENERALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AFT 00Z THIS EVE. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH (NOW EXTENDING FM LWR MI S THROUGH THE TN VLY) WILL TEND TO KEEP ENOUGH UVM IN PLACE ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF SPOTTY SHRAS THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS AS IT APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING AFT MDNGT...THERE COULD BE SN SHWRS OR MIXED RA/SN SHWRS. NO SN ACCUM IS EXPECTED AND TRAVEL NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. LO TEMPS TNGT FM NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S. IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG. SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC. NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%). XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S E...TO THE L70S W. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SOME FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH A WEAKER VERSION OF A MEAN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND AND TROUGH IN THE NE CONUS. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MON. LATEST 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AS IT DIGS THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR SHOWERS FOR NOW...NO GULF CONNECTION PRESENT IN WNW FLOW ALOFT SO ANY POTENTIAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MON REMAIN SEASONABLE...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...A BIT COOLER OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEXT SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH...MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 12Z/TUE...TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED/WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WX TO THE LOCAL AREA TUE/WED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW ON TUE...AND THEN TO THE W ON WED AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE CONUS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE BY THU...GFS BEING THE WETTER SOLN AS SFC LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...STAYING NEAR CLIMO AT THIS POINT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F. MORNING LOWS MON-THU AVG IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO N...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BUILDING TO 6-8FT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALLOWING THE WIND TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH A NW WIND AVERAGING 20-25KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD LINGER AROUND 4- 5 FT...WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT SCAS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS WHERE THE LULL SHOULD EXCEED 12 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO SSW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>634- 650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ

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