-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES INVOF LWR OH VLY ATTM...W/ CDFNT ALIGNED FM THE SRN
LAKES ENE INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE FNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE TO THE S
TDA...WHILE LO PRES TRACKS EWD AND ENTERS THE MDATLC THIS AFTN.
MDL TSECTIONS SHOWING DECENT AREA OF UVM ENTERING THE RGN AFT
18Z/18. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS W OF THE MTNS THE PAST
24 HRS...AND XPCG DVLPMNT HERE BY THIS AFTN/EVE. PWTR AVGG 2" OVR
THE RGN. WILL MENTION LCLLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN. STARTING OUT
W/ VRB CLDNS/PCLDY CONDS...THEN QUICKLY BECOMING MCLDY. THE CLDNS
AND DVLPG PCPN HOLD TEMPS DOWN TDA. HI TEMPS MNLY FM 80 TO 85F.
MOST AREAS HAVE HAD A DECENT BREAK FM SGFNT RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLDG FM ANY HVY RAINFALL LTR TDA. NO WATCH
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LO PRES TRACKS OFF THE CST TNGT W/ CDFNT SETTLING S INTO THE
CAROLINAS. CHCS FOR HEAVY RAIN DCRS AFT MDNGT...THOUGH KEEPING
POPS MNLY BTWN 30-50%. WNDS BECOME N OVRNGT...THOUGH DRYING WILL
BE LMTD. SFC HI PRES FM THE N WILL BE SLO TO BUILD INTO THE RGN ON
WED. TSECTIONS SHOWING CONTD MOISTURE IN LO LVLS AND W/ NNE
FLO...CLRG LIKELY TO BE SLO/GRADUAL. POPS MNLY 20% N TO 30% ACRS
THE SRN VA/NE NC.

SFC HI PRES AND DRY AIR EXPAND TO THE SSE WED NGT THROUGH THU
RESULTING IN CLRG AND COOLER CONDS. MDLS (ESP THE GFS) DO SUGGEST
PTNTL FOR DIURNAL CNVTN THU OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MNLY W OF THE
FA.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M70S AT
THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U50S TO M60S.
HI TEMPS THU FM ARND 80F AT THE CST TO THE M80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS MORNG...DUE TO SSW
FLO CAUSING SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS. THAT LO PRES AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE
REGION...ESPLY FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY WED MORNG. A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS
OR STRONGER STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER
WED THRU THU...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA THEN OFF THE NRN MID
ATLC CST.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
EARLY THIS MORNG...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING INTO OH AND
PA...WHILE LO PRES WAS MOVNG INTO W/CNTRL TN. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA LATER TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. SSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DURING TODAY...WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE FM N-S LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...THEN REMAIN NE INTO THU...AS
HI PRES BLDS OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES LINGERS OFF THE CST. WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR NOW...ESPLY OVR THE CHES
BAY...WHILE ONSHR FLO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BLD SEAS TO 5 FT WED
INTO WED NGT. THE HI SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE CST LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE WIND VEERING FM NE-S AND REMAINING
AOB 15 KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG