-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WANE THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL SFC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (IT IS BEING PULLED IN ON SW FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC) TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
HAMPER ANY CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S
REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FORECAST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE/ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR