-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY OVER SE AREAS THRU
ERLY THIS EVENG. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS ~1.9"
AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX DUE TO MARGINAL
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND FORCING. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PULLING
OFFSHORE...ANY SHWRS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE EVENG HRS...LEAVING DRY
CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY
CLDY SKY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS
IS EXPECTED.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...NR 50
IVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA / NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
WILL BE PSBL OVER SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT ECG THROUGH 20Z. ALL OF THE SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IFR STRATUS IS INDICATED BY MOS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY FROM 08 TO 14Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY AND
BEYOND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
IVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR