-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE CAROLINA COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS HAVE
RESULTED FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SURFACE HEATING HAS
ALLOWED FOR A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SKIES WILL STILL AVERAGE MOSTLY
SUNNY. H85 TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 13-15C TODAY WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW/MID 80S. MAINLY CLEAR AND
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH LOWS 60-65.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. SEASONABLY WARM MONDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED...FEATURING A STRONG TROUGH IN
THE WEST...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE NE.
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED NE
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. OTHERWISE...MODELS
STRUGGLE ON HANDLING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW.
THE FIRST OF WHICH IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION TUES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SEWD OUT OF S CNTRL CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS...REACHING THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. 14/12Z GFS DIGS STRONGER SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY. OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NE...WITH
THE SFC LOW LIFTING OVER THE NE INTO SE CANADA. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE DAYTIME TEMPS AND RAINFALL CHANCES. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUES...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FRONT FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST TUES NIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO POPS. THEREAFTER...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE ERN CONUS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR A BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CINTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVR THE RGN THROUGH TNGT. EXPECTING LGT W-NW WINDS
INLAND, WITH LIGHT WNDS RESULTING IN TYPICAL MIDDAY SEABREEZE
EFFECTS AT ORF. OTEHRWISE, LOOK FOR FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
BECOME MORE S-SW BY THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SLIDES OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: WEAKENING CDFNT APPROACHING FM THE NW LT SUN AND SETTLES
SOUTH OVER THE FA SUN NGT W/ PSBL ISOLD/SCT TSTMS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHORT LIVED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS (RIC/SBY). CONTINUED SW FLOW MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR
(MAINLY) DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...WITH INCREASING
CHCS ON TUE AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE
REGION,

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTG TO SLOLY SUBSIDE OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS. BASED ON
TRENDS...WILL BE LWRG SCAS W/ NEW FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES BUILDS NR
THE WTRS DURG TDA...SETTLING OFF THE SE CONUS CST BY THIS EVE. WNW
WNDS BCMG SSW BY LT TDA...SPDS RMNG MNLY BLO 15 KT. SW WNDS
TNGT...INCRSG IN SPDS TO (JUST) SHORT OF SCAS...CONTG INTO SUN
AFTN. WEAKENING CDFNT APPROACHES THE WTRS FM THE NW LT
SUN...SLOLY PUSHING ACRS THE WTRS SUN NGT WHILE DISSIPATING. MAY
NEED SCAS FOR SEAS NR 5 FT ON THE NRN OCN WTRS. CONTD SW WNDS ERY
IN THE UPCOMING WK AS HI PRES OFF THE SE CONUS CST HOLDS ITS
GROUND AND AHD OF NEXT AREA OF LO PRES TRACKING TWD THE WTRS FM
THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR THE BLACKWATER AT FRANKLIN. THE LATEST
FORECAST SHOWING A GRADUAL DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTRN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/DAP
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
HYDROLOGY...