-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200240
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER MONDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RATHER DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SITUATED FROM EASTERN KY TO SW VA AND NC. AT THE SFC...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK...NOW GENLY TO THE N OF THE
CWA. SFC WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC IN DIRECTION
DUE TO ONGOING SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY. MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...HAVE A FEW AREAS OF LIKELY POPS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA. IR SATELLITE GENLY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING...BUT
THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WHERE SHRA/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POPPING
UP W/ COOLING CLOUD TOPS.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ON THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
THE FOG SHOULD MAINLY DEVELOP FROM LOWERING STRATUS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THROUGH THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING RATHER SLOWLY. HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST TO NEAR THE CHOWAN RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH READINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 70S AT THE COAST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
HIGHEST POPS (SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AT 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH POPS. WITH NO
STRONG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION OR INDICATIONS OF WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS...KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE MEANS A CHC FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY
TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
IFR CIGS LIKELY TO SETTLE INTO RIC AND SBY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR COND BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SE-S TONIGHT 5-10
KT...AND S-SW ON MON 10-15 KT. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
PSBL MON AFTN WITH THE INSTABILITY AND HEATING...THEN HIGH PRES
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. MON NIGHT MAY BE PRIME FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING BUT ONLY MENTIONING THAT AS POSSIBLITY AT
THIS TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SE FLOW PREVAILS TNGT AS A WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. HIRES
MODELS SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENG...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF OR LONG LASTING ENUF TO ISSUE A
SCA HEADLINE FOR THIS ATTM. WINDS STAY GENRLY 10-15 KT OVRNGT AND
SHIFT FROM SE TO S. SEAS WILL APPROACH 4-5 FT OUT 20 NM OVER COASTAL
WATERS...WITH BEST CHC FOR 5+ FT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES WHERE
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. 12Z WAVEWATCH SHOWS 5 FT
SEAS THERE LASTING INTO MON AND MON NGT...BUT WITH WAVEWATCH
RUNNING HIGH DURING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS OF LATE...WILL END THE SCA AT
4 AM TNGT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT EITHER EXPIRING THE HAZARD OR
EXTENDING IT OUT IN TIME. OTW...SUB-SCA SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...JEF
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...AKQ