Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240528 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 128 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks farther away to the northeast of the area overnight. High pressure builds in from the north bringing drier conditions Sunday into early next week. Unsettled weather returns by mid- late week with additional rain possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 945 PM EDT Saturday... Late this evening, sfc low pressure was located near Cape Cod MA. While, sfc high pressure was centered over the Great Lakes. The low will continue to move away to the NE overnight, as the sfc high starts to build SE toward the area. The sky will clear from W to E overnight, with lows ranging through the 30s. The pressure gradient between these features will lead to very breezy/windy conditions across most of the region overnight into early Sun, with locations along the coast most at risk of seeing minor wind-related impacts given the prior heavy rainfall earlier today. Here, N winds gust to 45-50 mph. Wind gusts should max out at around 40 mph for inland locations. Wind advisories remain in effect through Sun aftn for counties/cities bordering the bay and ocean. High pressure ridges farther down into the area for Sun. Very dry low/mid levels favor full sunshine with high temps a few degrees below seasonal normals. Highs range from the low 50s E to mid 50s W. Persistent onshore flow continues (windiest at the coast). Winds then subside substantially for inland locations overnight Sunday with lows ranging from the low 30s inland to the mid-upper 30s/around 40 closer to the coast. Will note that the frost/freeze program technically starts Sunday (3/24) for most of NE NC where lows may dip to around 32 F. At this time, will hold off on any freeze headlines and allow the next shift to reevaluate this given the wind and marginal nature. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Low pressure lingers well offshore, but gradually weakens, for the beginning of next week. Transient high pressure at the sfc and aloft also builds/remains across the ern CONUS. Highs reach the mid 50s to around 60 Monday and Tuesday. There will likely be a substantial increase in clouds late Monday night through most of Tuesday as low- level, onshore flow funnels a maritime air mass off the ocean. Cloud coverage is forecast to be highest along the coast. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 30s inland and upper 30s-low 40s at the coast, with lows Tue night milder due to cloud cover (low 40s areawide). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... An occluding low over the Great Lakes Wed pushes a cold front through the area slowly Wed into Thu. Some rain is possible along the front Wed, however, with the forcing so far displaced and the front weakening, don`t expect much in terms of QPF. Have kept PoPs capped in the chance range for this initial wave. Then, a srn stream shortwave trough moves towards the E coast Wed night into Fri with models showing the potential for a coastal low to develop along the stalled cold front along/just off the coast. The trend w/ the 12z deterministic guidance has been for a slightly less amplified pattern, which keeps the coastal low more suppressed to our S. On the ensemble side of things, not much has changed wrt QPF. The EPS and GEFS means both show 1-2" of QPF for most of the area, with a signal of 2"+ remaining across SE portions of the area. In any case, the timing for a coastal low appears to be Wed night through Thu. NBM PoPs continue to inch up compared to previous cycles, which now paints 60-70% PoPs for a good portion of the area Thursday (40-50% PoPs across the far NW). Behind that system, high pressure builds back in with dry weather returning. Highs will generally be within a few degrees of late March averages for the middle and end of the week with highs in the upper 50s and 60s (coolest Thu due to the rain). A more substantial warming trend is possible by next weekend. Lows look to remain above freezing through the extended. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 810 PM EDT Saturday... Low pressure was located just E of Long Island NY this evening. Also, sfc high pressure was centered over the Great Lakes. Some MVFR CIGs will still linger over the ern TAF sites for a couple hours yet before lifting to VFR CIGs or clearing out. Then, VFR conditions expected from later this evening into Sun evening. Otherwise, the story will be the winds, which will become very gusty out of the N from later this evening through much of Sun. Expect wind speeds of 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-40 kt at the TAF sites. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail for Sun night into Mon night. However, onshore flow and potential cloudiness will be possible for Tue. Additional rain chances will then be possible late Tue night into Thu night, with degraded flight conditions. && .MARINE...
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As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... As of early this morning, seas were running 6-8 ft nearshore/8-11 ft offshore with waves of 4-6 ft in the Ches Bay. Waves will peak around 5-7 ft in the Bay later this morning with seas gradually building to 9-13 ft into Monday. Gales will persist through midday today before the gradient slowly slackens from NW to SE late. Thereafter, winds remain elevated (15-20 kt in the bay and 20-25 kt offshore) well into Monday as the gradient remains steep between high pressure building in from the north and low pressure lingering offshore. Due to persistent NE winds, a long period of elevated waves/seas will accompany the stronger winds and continue through Wednesday. A significant swell will be maintained along the coast into midweek. As far as headlines go, Gale Warnings are in place for the entire marine area and this will last through this afternoon/evening. Additionally, high surf advisories are in effect for Atlantic beaches for nearshore waves 8-11 ft/9-13 ft offshore. The high surf advisory is in effect through late Monday for now and will likely need to be extended into Wednesday.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... A blow out tide (up to 1 ft below normal) is expected along the Ches Bay side of the lower MD Eastern shore during low tide later this morning. Otherwise, water levels will begin to slowly increase over the next 48 hrs as high pressure to our north interacts with broad low pressure well offshore to cause a prolonged period of onshore (E-NE) flow and elevated seas nearshore. This combination of increased winds and elevated seas will not allow water to flow out of the mouth of the Ches Bay as efficiently and over time this water will start to back up into the middle and upper Bay. So, not only will some minor to moderate coastal flooding be possible along the Atlantic coast from Ocean City, MD to Currituck, NC starting late Monday, but minor to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible up the Ches Bay to Cambridge and Bishops Head, MD starting Monday night and then continuing through Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Locations across the lower Ches Bay, the lower James River, and the southern coastal waters from VA Beach to the northern OBX will have the best chance of reaching moderate coastal flooding thresholds.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ077-078- 084>086-099-100-523>525. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-631-638. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-634-650- 652. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-654. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW/TMG SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...RMM/SW AVIATION...SW/TMG MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM

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