Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240752 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Breezy conditions continue today. High pressure builds in from the north bringing drier conditions today into early next week. Unsettled weather returns by mid-late week with additional rain likely.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... Latest sfc analysis depicts low pressure off the coast of Maine with sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes and mostly clear skies across the area. The pressure gradient between these features will lead to breezy/windy conditions continuing into early this afternoon, with locations along the coast most at risk of seeing minor wind- related impacts. Here, N winds with gusts to 45 mph are possible. Farther inland, wind gusts of 20-30 mph will continue to be possible. Wind advisories remain in effect through late this morning/early this afternoon for counties/cities bordering the bay and ocean. Temps as of 320 AM ranged from the low-mid 30s N to the upper 30s S and lower 40s along the coast. Lows tonight in the lower 30s inland and upper 30s along the coast (upper 20s possible across the far NW). However, given the strong winds, wind chills will be quite cold into early this morning with minimum wind chills in the lower 20s for most and even as low as the upper teens (potentially) for NW portions of the FA. Closer to the coast, wind chills in the mid 20s are possible. Highs today in the mid-upper 40s NE to the low-mid 50s SW. Will note that some CAMs show temps only in the upper 40s across most of the area. Irregardless, it will be a chilly day. With high pressure ridging into the area overnight overnight and the pressure gradient slacking, winds subside substantially for inland locations overnight apart from the immediate coast. With light winds inland and clear skies, temps drop into the upper 30s to lower 30s W but remain upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast (due to the wind). While most inland areas are expected to drop below freezing, the frost/freeze program has only started for NE NC and extreme SE VA (south of the James River). As such, a Freeze Warning is in effect for Northampton County, NC with Frost Advisories for Hertford and Bertie Counties. Will note that while temps may drop below freezing for portions of the Hertford/Bertie, given slightly stronger winds, confidence is not high enough for an impactful freeze for crops. Some patchy frost is possible in SW Suffolk and W Gates County, however, given the lower confidence in frost formation due to the wind, will hold off on advisories for these areas at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... High pressure (centered well N of the local) continues to ridge S into the area Mon and Tues with mostly sunny skies Mon. Clouds increase Mon night into Tue with mostly cloudy skies Tue ahead of the next system. Low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies today, moving NE into Ontario by Tue. This will allow for the trailing cold front and parent trough to move E by Tue, creating the cloud cover. Some light showers are possible across W portions of the FA by late Tue night. Highs in the low-mid 50s NE to lower 60s SW Mon and Tue. Lows in the lower 30s NW to low-mid 40s SE Mon night and low-mid 40s Tue night.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... An occluding low over the Great Lakes Wed pushes a cold front through the area slowly Wed into Thu. Some rain is possible along the front Wed, however, with the forcing so far displaced and the front weakening, don`t expect much in terms of QPF. Have kept PoPs capped in the chance range for this initial wave. Then, a srn stream shortwave trough moves towards the E coast Wed night into Fri with models showing the potential for a coastal low to develop along the stalled cold front along/just off the coast. The trend w/ the 12z deterministic guidance has been for a slightly less amplified pattern, which keeps the coastal low more suppressed to our S. On the ensemble side of things, not much has changed wrt QPF. The EPS and GEFS means both show 1-2" of QPF for most of the area, with a signal of 2"+ remaining across SE portions of the area. In any case, the timing for a coastal low appears to be Wed night through Thu. NBM PoPs continue to inch up compared to previous cycles, which now paints 60-70% PoPs for a good portion of the area Thursday (40-50% PoPs across the far NW). Behind that system, high pressure builds back in with dry weather returning. Highs will generally be within a few degrees of late March averages for the middle and end of the week with highs in the upper 50s and 60s (coolest Thu due to the rain). A more substantial warming trend is possible by next weekend. Lows look to remain above freezing through the extended. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... Low pressure has moved off the coast of Maine early this morning with high pressure over the Great Lakes and clearing skies across the area. Strong N winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt inland and 20-25 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt along the coast continue into early this afternoon. Winds gradually diminish this afternoon, becoming light inland this evening and overnight (5-8 kt). Along the coast, winds remain breezy at ORF/ECG at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt tonight. VFR conditions prevail through the taf period, however, some model guidance indicates the potential for a marine layer to develop tonight with MVFR CIGs (1500-2500 ft). Will continue to monitor trends to see if this appears likely and whether or not it may make it inland to the SE terminals. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Mon night. However, onshore flow and potential cloudiness will be possible Tue. Additional rain chances will then be possible late Tue night into Thu night, with degraded flight conditions possible. && .MARINE... As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... As of early this morning, seas were running 6-8 ft nearshore/8-11 ft offshore with waves of 4-6 ft in the Ches Bay. Waves will peak around 5-7 ft in the Bay later this morning with seas gradually building to 9-13 ft into Monday. Gales will persist through midday today before the gradient slowly slackens from NW to SE late. Thereafter, winds remain elevated (15-20 kt in the bay and 20-25 kt offshore) well into Monday as the gradient remains steep between high pressure building in from the north and low pressure lingering offshore. Due to persistent NE winds, a long period of elevated waves/seas will accompany the stronger winds and continue through Wednesday. A significant swell will be maintained along the coast into midweek. As far as headlines go, Gale Warnings are in place for the entire marine area and this will last through this afternoon/evening. Additionally, high surf advisories are in effect for Atlantic beaches for nearshore waves 8-11 ft/9-13 ft offshore. The high surf advisory is in effect through late Monday for now and will likely need to be extended into Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... A blow out tide (up to 1 ft below normal) is expected along the Ches Bay side of the lower MD Eastern shore during low tide later this morning. Otherwise, water levels will begin to slowly increase over the next 48 hrs as high pressure to our north interacts with broad low pressure well offshore to cause a prolonged period of onshore (E-NE) flow and elevated seas nearshore. This combination of increased winds and elevated seas will not allow water to flow out of the mouth of the Ches Bay as efficiently and over time this water will start to back up into the middle and upper Bay. So, not only will some minor to moderate coastal flooding be possible along the Atlantic coast from Ocean City, MD to Currituck, NC starting late Monday, but minor to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible up the Ches Bay to Cambridge and Bishops Head, MD starting Monday night and then continuing through Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Locations across the lower Ches Bay, the lower James River, and the southern coastal waters from VA Beach to the northern OBX will have the best chance of reaching moderate coastal flooding thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ012. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ013-030. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ017-102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ077-078- 084>086-099-100-523>525. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ095-098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-631-638. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-634-650- 652. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-654. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM/SW AVIATION...RMM MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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