Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 240752
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Breezy conditions continue today. High pressure builds in from the
north bringing drier conditions today into early next week.
Unsettled weather returns by mid-late week with additional rain
likely.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Latest sfc analysis depicts low pressure off the coast of Maine with
sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes and mostly clear skies across
the area. The pressure gradient between these features will lead to
breezy/windy conditions continuing into early this afternoon, with
locations along the coast most at risk of seeing minor wind- related
impacts. Here, N winds with gusts to 45 mph are possible. Farther
inland, wind gusts of 20-30 mph will continue to be possible. Wind
advisories remain in effect through late this morning/early this
afternoon for counties/cities bordering the bay and ocean.
Temps as of 320 AM ranged from the low-mid 30s N to the upper 30s S
and lower 40s along the coast. Lows tonight in the lower 30s inland
and upper 30s along the coast (upper 20s possible across the far
NW). However, given the strong winds, wind chills will be quite cold
into early this morning with minimum wind chills in the lower 20s
for most and even as low as the upper teens (potentially) for NW
portions of the FA. Closer to the coast, wind chills in the mid 20s
are possible. Highs today in the mid-upper 40s NE to the low-mid 50s
SW. Will note that some CAMs show temps only in the upper 40s across
most of the area. Irregardless, it will be a chilly day.
With high pressure ridging into the area overnight overnight and the
pressure gradient slacking, winds subside substantially for inland
locations overnight apart from the immediate coast. With light winds
inland and clear skies, temps drop into the upper 30s to lower 30s W
but remain upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast (due to the wind).
While most inland areas are expected to drop below freezing, the
frost/freeze program has only started for NE NC and extreme SE VA
(south of the James River). As such, a Freeze Warning is in effect
for Northampton County, NC with Frost Advisories for Hertford and
Bertie Counties. Will note that while temps may drop below freezing
for portions of the Hertford/Bertie, given slightly stronger winds,
confidence is not high enough for an impactful freeze for crops.
Some patchy frost is possible in SW Suffolk and W Gates County,
however, given the lower confidence in frost formation due to the
wind, will hold off on advisories for these areas at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
High pressure (centered well N of the local) continues to ridge S
into the area Mon and Tues with mostly sunny skies Mon. Clouds
increase Mon night into Tue with mostly cloudy skies Tue ahead of
the next system. Low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies
today, moving NE into Ontario by Tue. This will allow for the
trailing cold front and parent trough to move E by Tue, creating the
cloud cover. Some light showers are possible across W portions of
the FA by late Tue night. Highs in the low-mid 50s NE to lower 60s
SW Mon and Tue. Lows in the lower 30s NW to low-mid 40s SE Mon night
and low-mid 40s Tue night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...
An occluding low over the Great Lakes Wed pushes a cold front
through the area slowly Wed into Thu. Some rain is possible
along the front Wed, however, with the forcing so far displaced
and the front weakening, don`t expect much in terms of QPF. Have
kept PoPs capped in the chance range for this initial wave.
Then, a srn stream shortwave trough moves towards the E coast
Wed night into Fri with models showing the potential for a
coastal low to develop along the stalled cold front along/just
off the coast. The trend w/ the 12z deterministic guidance has
been for a slightly less amplified pattern, which keeps the
coastal low more suppressed to our S. On the ensemble side of
things, not much has changed wrt QPF. The EPS and GEFS means
both show 1-2" of QPF for most of the area, with a signal of 2"+
remaining across SE portions of the area. In any case, the
timing for a coastal low appears to be Wed night through Thu.
NBM PoPs continue to inch up compared to previous cycles, which
now paints 60-70% PoPs for a good portion of the area Thursday
(40-50% PoPs across the far NW). Behind that system, high
pressure builds back in with dry weather returning. Highs will
generally be within a few degrees of late March averages for the
middle and end of the week with highs in the upper 50s and 60s
(coolest Thu due to the rain). A more substantial warming trend
is possible by next weekend. Lows look to remain above freezing
through the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...
Low pressure has moved off the coast of Maine early this morning
with high pressure over the Great Lakes and clearing skies
across the area. Strong N winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt
inland and 20-25 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt along the coast
continue into early this afternoon. Winds gradually diminish
this afternoon, becoming light inland this evening and overnight
(5-8 kt). Along the coast, winds remain breezy at ORF/ECG at
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt tonight. VFR conditions prevail
through the taf period, however, some model guidance indicates
the potential for a marine layer to develop tonight with MVFR
CIGs (1500-2500 ft). Will continue to monitor trends to see if
this appears likely and whether or not it may make it inland to
the SE terminals.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Mon night. However,
onshore flow and potential cloudiness will be possible Tue.
Additional rain chances will then be possible late Tue night
into Thu night, with degraded flight conditions possible.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 125 AM EDT Sunday...
As of early this morning, seas were running 6-8 ft
nearshore/8-11 ft offshore with waves of 4-6 ft in the Ches Bay.
Waves will peak around 5-7 ft in the Bay later this morning with
seas gradually building to 9-13 ft into Monday.
Gales will persist through midday today before the gradient
slowly slackens from NW to SE late. Thereafter, winds remain
elevated (15-20 kt in the bay and 20-25 kt offshore) well into
Monday as the gradient remains steep between high pressure
building in from the north and low pressure lingering offshore.
Due to persistent NE winds, a long period of elevated
waves/seas will accompany the stronger winds and continue
through Wednesday. A significant swell will be maintained along
the coast into midweek. As far as headlines go, Gale Warnings
are in place for the entire marine area and this will last
through this afternoon/evening. Additionally, high surf
advisories are in effect for Atlantic beaches for nearshore
waves 8-11 ft/9-13 ft offshore. The high surf advisory is in
effect through late Monday for now and will likely need to be
extended into Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 125 AM EDT Sunday...
A blow out tide (up to 1 ft below normal) is expected along the
Ches Bay side of the lower MD Eastern shore during low tide
later this morning. Otherwise, water levels will begin to slowly
increase over the next 48 hrs as high pressure to our north
interacts with broad low pressure well offshore to cause a
prolonged period of onshore (E-NE) flow and elevated seas
nearshore. This combination of increased winds and elevated
seas will not allow water to flow out of the mouth of the Ches
Bay as efficiently and over time this water will start to back
up into the middle and upper Bay. So, not only will some minor
to moderate coastal flooding be possible along the Atlantic
coast from Ocean City, MD to Currituck, NC starting late Monday,
but minor to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible
up the Ches Bay to Cambridge and Bishops Head, MD starting
Monday night and then continuing through Tuesday and possibly
Wednesday. Locations across the lower Ches Bay, the lower James
River, and the southern coastal waters from VA Beach to the
northern OBX will have the best chance of reaching moderate
coastal flooding thresholds.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
NCZ012.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
NCZ013-030.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ017-102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ077-078-
084>086-099-100-523>525.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ095-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-631-638.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-634-650-
652.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-654.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM/SW
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...