-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241424
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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PER LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS...COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
WITH STRONG HEIGHT RISES (+4-6MB) OVER CNTRL AND WRN VA. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...AIDED BY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE...POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL INHIBIT ANY
CHANCE OF THUNDER. RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PRECIP WATERS ~1.25 INCHES
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95) AND THE DIGGING TROUGH (UVM) WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SCATTERED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TROUGH AXIS WILL ORIENT
ALONG THE COAST LATE AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY ENDING PRECIP
CHANCES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING WEST TO EAST LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER NE NC.
THIS IS ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (-1 STD DEV). NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 MPH...STRONGER NEAR THE COAST.

LIGHT NW WINDS AND CLEAR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND...WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. WARMING WATER TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.

WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB