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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Breezy conditions continue into Saturday. A substantial warming
trend is expected Sunday into early next week with high pressure
building in.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Upper trough and shortwave move through today into this evening
which has allowed isolated showers to re-develop. Some small
graupel is possible in the deepest convective cores but locally
enhanced winds are the main hazard from scattered showers into
this evening. Outside of any shower activity, strong W/SW winds
will remain gusty this evening and are not expected to decouple
overnight. Coverage of showers should decrease substantially
with the loss of heating but with robust forcing aloft will keep
a slight chance for showers this evening. Lows tonight fall into
the upper 40s to low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

The upper trough will begin to lift away from the region on Saturday
but the surface gradient will remain steep with continued gusty W
winds. Drying aloft will result in mostly clear skies over much of
the region with just a few/scattered clouds across the MD Eastern
Shore and vicinity. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to low
70s inland with low to mid 60s over the Eastern Shore. Lows Saturday
night fall into the low and mid 40s with light winds.

Warming trend gets underway on Sunday as surface high pressure sets
up off the GA/FL Atlantic coast, bringing SW flow into the area.
Highs climb into the upper 70s/low 80s for most of the area but the
Eastern Shore remains in the low 70s with flow off the bay. Not as
cold Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warmer still
and remaining dry on Monday with highs in the 70s near the water
with lower/mid 80s inland.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through the extended
forecast period. A weakening front will dip southward into the
region Monday night but guidance is not showing much (if any) precip
with this boundary. This front is forecast to lift back northward on
Tuesday as low level flow becomes southerly ahead of low pressure
lifting into the Midwest from the Plains. Low level thicknesses
increase Tues-Thurs with 850 temps around 15 C, resulting in
afternoon high temps in the low to mid 80s away from the water
Tuesday. Slightly cooler, around 80 degrees, Wednesday with more
clouds in the area and a slight chance of showers across the
northern half of the region. The warmest day of the forecast looks
to arrive on Thursday with inland temps in the mid to upper 80s and
upper 70s to low 80s at the coast. The cold front moves toward the
area Friday with a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Not quite as warm but afternoon highs still in the upper 70s to low
80s. Overnight temps will be mild as well with lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

VFR flying conditions across the area this afternoon. Satellite
and surface observations show SCT/BKN CU with a few showers
popping up over the last hour or two. Local reductions in flight
category are possible in and around these showers. Winds are
generally W at 15-25 kt with gusts 25-40 kt this afternoon.
Winds relax a bit as mixing wanes late afternoon into the
evening but are expected to stay around 10-15 kt with gusts
around 20 kt through the overnight. Gusty again Saturday as
mixing gets going in the morning.

Outlook: Dry and VFR Sunday into early next week with lighter
winds.
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&&

.MARINE...
As of 1120 AM EDT Friday...

Latest obs shows WSW winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt and
seas 7-10 ft N and 5-7 ft S. Winds remain gusty through the
period. SCAs continues for all the waters. Deep mixing is
expected over land areas this aftn with gusts to 30 kt at
land/water interfaces and over the tidal rivers. Seas slowly
subside with the offshore winds and seas becoming 5-7 ft. A
secondary front crosses the waters this evening. Another surge
in winds is expected along and behind this front, with winds
becoming W 20-25 kt (with gusts to around 30 kt) into early Sat
afternoon. A similar setup to Fri afternoon is expected Sat
afternoon with the gustiest winds over the tidal rivers, but
winds will tend to drop off a little earlier and will further
diminish Sat night.

Sub-SCA winds return Saturday night through most of Sunday as
high pressure situates over the southeast CONUS. A much more
benign sea state is also expected with seas dropping off to 2-3
ft (1-2 ft waves). SW winds may then briefly increase again to
near SCA thresholds Sun night into Mon morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1115 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages/Headline Summary:

1) All Coastal Flood Warnings have ended, with the Coastal
Flood Advisory in NE NC and Va Beach for soundside flooding
extended through 2 PM (E of Perquimans County). Have issued a
short-fused Coastal Flood Advisory for Dorchester MD through
early aftn (to cover Cambridge still in minor flood but
falling), and have issued Coastal Flood statements through this
evening for the northern Neck and the east side of the Bay in MD
as well as Accomack. The High Surf Advisory for the ocean side
of the eastern shore has ended (with nearshore waves now 7 ft
or less).

The strong southerly surge has passed with winds now WSW across
the region. Tidal departures are slowly falling, but remain
elevated (to near 2 ft above astronomical tides) across the
upper Bay. No additional tidal flooding is expected after
tonight as W winds continue to flush water out of the Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-
     102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...