Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 210541 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 141 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next several days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High level cirrus clouds from Jose are circulating across the region and will continue to do so as Jose lingers south of Cape Cod in weak steering currents. With a light northerly flow fog formation expected to be limited and would occur where winds decouple and/or clouds thin out enough. Temperatures will once again be above normal due to warm air mass in place with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A stationary ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through the entire short term period from Thursday through Saturday. Tropical Storm Jose will start to stall on Thursday near the 40/70 lat/lon intersection over the Atlantic Ocean and then slowly retrograde to the west and weaken. We will continue to not expect any impacts in our area from Jose. The main story will be continued summer-like temperatures, although overnight lows will be slightly cooler than they would be in the middle of the summer due to longer length of night- time. Patchy fog will be possible in favored locations near bodies of water each and could affect daytime temperatures depending on how long it takes for fog to dissipate. There may be some patches of clouds across eastern areas from time to time as Jose wobbles westward, but otherwise abundant sunshine is expected. High temps Thursday through Saturday will generally be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With Hurricane Maria expected to take a similar path as Jose up the western Atlantic, we will continue to experience high pressure and subsidence, resulting in unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions, with high readings Sunday starting out in the near- record territory of upper 70 to upper 80s. With calm nights expected Sunday night, the high peaks will cool nicely, and highs on Monday will be noticeably cooler there on Monday. This will start an overall trend to gradually cooler conditions, but even by Wednesday, highs will still be in the well-above-normal around 70 to around 80 degree range. As far as precipitation goes, the only fly in the ointment might be Wednesday when a backdoor cold front slips south across the northern portions of New York and New England, possibly, but more unlikely, setting off some light shower activity in the northern Adirondacks and extreme southeastern Vermont. In any case, this will be the cloudiest period of the extended, but sunshine will be abundant through Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High level cirrus clouds from Jose are circulating across the region and will continue to do so as Jose lingers south of Cape Cod in weak steering currents. Some fog may form late at night where winds decouple and/or clouds thin out enough. IFR conditions possible at KGFL and MVFR at KPSF. Otherwise VFR conditions through the TAF period; 06Z/Friday. Calm to light northerly winds overnight will increase to 7 to 8 knots after sunrise with gusts into the teens at KPSF expected during mainly the afternoon hours. Outlook... Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next several days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. Relative humidity values will increase to near 100 percent tonight, then decrease to minimum values of 40 to 50 percent Thursday afternoon. RH values Thursday night will increase to between 80 and 100 percent. Winds tonight through Thursday night will be northerly around 5 to 15 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast into next week as high pressure dominates. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV

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