Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 190557 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1257 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of wet weather will overspread the region tonight as a warm front lifts northward across the region. A strong cold front will sweep across the area Sunday morning, resulting in windy conditions and falling temperatures. Precipitation will become less widespread and begin to mix with snow over the higher terrain. Lake effect snow will occur in favored regions Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1230 am, regional radars suggest the most concentrated area of low level jet-forced rainfall is ongoing across the forecast area and will continue over the next 1-3 hours before tapering off. P-type is rain in the majority of areas, but a few spots over Hamilton/Northern Warren Counties are at the freezing mark, so an SPS was issued earlier for pockets of freezing rain in sheltered valleys that haven`t seen the warm advection dislodge the shallow cold airmass. Cold front is now crossing into far western NY/PA and is on track to reach western Mohawk Valley/Adirondacks around 11Z, Hudson Valley around 13Z, and western New England around 14Z. Previous discussion...Strong cold frontal passage occurs through the early morning hours on Sunday. Surface low is progged to deepen toward 978mb across the St Lawrence Valley as deformation axis moves across the Dacks, Mohawk Valley. A period of rain/snow transitioning to all snow should commence through the morning hours Sunday. In addition, winds will quickly shift to the west-northwest and increase rather quickly in magnitudes. Mixing layer heights appear to be a little lower than yesterdays solutions as per close coordination with neighboring offices, we will issue a wind advisory for the southern 2/3rds of the region. Combination of downsloping, funneling potential down the Mohawk, into the higher terrain of the Taconics, Berks and NW CT should observed wind gusts over 45 mph. Precipitation should taper off toward noon as the low tracks well north of the region and deformation weakens. Then as the cold advection moves across the warm waters of the Great Lakes (GLERL analysis of Lake Ontario temperatures were near 10C), lake effect snow showers should develop as delta T/s climb toward 20C. Per 3kmNAM wind trajectories seems 280-290 degree trajectories set up but overall lake band structures and organization may be delayed a bit as weak mid level short wave ridge may suppress convective updrafts a bit. That changes toward Sunday night, however. Temperatures will be falling through the day as H850 temperatures fall back toward -6C to -8C with -10C isotherm just upstream.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Winds should subside below advisory levels Sunday evening but still remain gusty. Another upstream short wave approaches Sunday night as this will be best opportunity for lake effect snow to develop and impact the region. Trajectories are expected to remain around the 290 degrees which favors the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley. Its possible overnight that some of these bands may migrate into the Capital District and favorable upslope conditions of the Taconics and Berks. At this time, seems accumulations up to 4 inches are possible for the western portions of the region with around 1 inch or less expected elsewhere. Additional adjustments are expected as we watch where the bands of snow develop and remain persistent. The band(s) of snow should lift northward toward Monday morning as the aforementioned short wave lifts east and north of the region and boundary layer flow backs a bit. So portions of Herkimer and Hamilton county get some snow Monday morning then as inversion heights lower, bands should weaken along with warming H850 temperatures toward Monday evening. A period of warm advection begins to unfold Monday night where additional cloud coverage is expected. Some upslope light precipitation may occur into the Dacks and southern Greens before much drier air arrives late at night. As for temperatures, we will blend with the latest ensemble superblend approach with lows mainly into the 20s and highs mainly into the 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A progressive, northern stream-dominant pattern with fast moving disturbances looks to continue through much of the long term. One such disturbance will track from north of the Great Lakes into northern Quebec Tuesday-Wednesday. Warm advection ahead of this system should allow for a surge of relatively mild air and above normal temps for Tuesday, with highs mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, along with a gusty south/southwest wind. A cold front associated with this system should track across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, accompanied by scattered rain showers in valleys, and rain changing to snow showers across higher terrain late Tuesday night, with some possible brief Lake Effect/Enhanced snow showers during Wednesday across portions of the southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley. Mild temps initially Tue night should fall into the 30s by daybreak Wed, except for some 20s across the western Adirondacks. Cold advection kicks in Wednesday, although temps may briefly reach the lower/mid 40s in valley areas in the morning before falling in the afternoon; with higher terrain areas in the 30s in the morning, then possibly 20s by late afternoon. A ridge of high pressure should bring fair and seasonably cool conditions for Thanksgiving, with highs mostly in the 30s. Then, the next impulse approaches for Thursday night-Fri AM, although it looks farther north then its predecessor, with weaker overall forcing/moisture. Perhaps some snow showers across the western Adirondacks. Lows Thursday night in the 20s in valleys, and teens for higher terrain; highs Friday in the 30s to lower 40s. Yet another northern stream system may approach from the Great Lakes for Saturday, with perhaps some late day and nighttime rain showers in valleys, and rain/snow showers across higher terrain. Highs Sat in the 30s and 40s, with lows Sat nt mainly in the 30s. Could be quite windy again late Saturday into Saturday night, depending on the ultimate strength of the approaching system. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Numerous showers will continue through around 09Z before activity tapers to showers. Flight conditions vary widely with KGFL socked in with LIFR stratus, while the remaining sites are VFR. Expect the very low cigs to persist at KGFL with possibly some improvement toward daybreak. At the remaining sites, MVFR/VFR should prevail, but a period of IFR could occur at KPSF. A strong cold front is on track to cross through after sunrise, resulting in a sharp wind shift and strong winds around 14Z for KALB/KPSF/KGFL and around 15Z for KPSF. Flight conditions will continue to improve to VFR in the wake of the frontal passage, although a few upslope rain or snow showers could occur at KPSF along and shortly after the frontal passage. Winds from 06Z-12Z will range from nearly calm at KGFL/KPOU to southerly gusting to near 25 kt at KALB/KPSF. Low-level wind shear continues at KGFL/KPOU with 40-50 kt winds at 2kft. Toward 12Z, winds will shift to southwesterly immediately in advance of the front, gusting to 20-25 kt. As the front passes through KALB/KPOU/KGFL around 14Z and KPSF around 15Z, winds will shift to westerly and become quite strong through much of the day, gusting to 30-45 kt, strongest at KALB/KPSF. Winds will remain elevated but gradually decrease Sunday evening. Outlook... Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33.0 Scattered SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33.0 Scattered SHRA...SHSN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...SHSN. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thanksgiving Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Periods of wet weather will overspread the region tonight as a warm front lifts northward across the region. A strong cold front will sweep across the area Sunday morning, resulting in windy conditions and falling temperatures. Precipitation will become less widespread and begin to mix with snow over the higher terrain. Lake effect snow will occur in favored regions Sunday night into Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers through next week. A strong low pressure system will approach from the Great Lakes Region tonight. Widespread wet weather will occur throughout the forecast area into tonight. A cold front will sweep through Sunday morning with additional rain changing to snow over the higher terrain. At this time, total QPF from this system looks to range from a half inch to near an inch, with isolated higher amounts over portions of the Green Mountains. A colder air mass will then build in Sunday night through early next week, with some lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario affecting the western Adirondacks and Mohawk/Schoharie Valleys. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066-082. MA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025. VT...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/Thompson SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Thompson HYDROLOGY...BGM/Thompson

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