Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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207 FXUS61 KALY 210246 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1046 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next several days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1045 PM EDT...Quiet evening remains as outflow from Jose continues to influence the mid and high level cloud coverage across most of the region. A light northerly wind will likely persist and may assist with drying out the column a bit overnight as suggested by the HRRR/RAP and seen in our 00Z sounding. Minimal changes to the ongoing excellent forecast. With a northerly breeze around 5-10 mph persisting into tonight, so fog formation expected to be limited. Areas to the north and west of Albany may have some patchy fog if winds decouple and clouds thin out enough. Temperatures will once again be above normal tonight due to warm air mass in place along with some clouds and a breeze in most spots.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A stationary ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through the entire short term period from Thursday through Saturday. Tropical Storm Jose will start to stall on Thursday near the 40/70 lat/lon intersection over the Atlantic Ocean and then slowly retrograde to the west and weaken. We will continue to not expect any impacts in our area from Jose. The main story will be continued summer-like temperatures, although overnight lows will be slightly cooler than they would be in the middle of the summer due to longer length of night- time. Patchy fog will be possible in favored locations near bodies of water each and could affect daytime temperatures depending on how long it takes for fog to dissipate. There may be some patches of clouds across eastern areas from time to time as Jose wobbles westward, but otherwise abundant sunshine is expected. High temps Thursday through Saturday will generally be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With Hurricane Maria expected to take a similar path as Jose up the western Atlantic, we will continue to experience high pressure and subsidence, resulting in unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions, with high readings Sunday starting out in the near- record territory of upper 70 to upper 80s. With calm nights expected Sunday night, the high peaks will cool nicely, and highs on Monday will be noticeably cooler there on Monday. This will start an overall trend to gradually cooler conditions, but even by Wednesday, highs will still be in the well-above-normal around 70 to around 80 degree range. As far as precipitation goes, the only fly in the ointment might be Wednesday when a backdoor cold front slips south across the northern portions of New York and New England, possibly, but more unlikely, setting off some light shower activity in the northern Adirondacks and extreme southeastern Vermont. In any case, this will be the cloudiest period of the extended, but sunshine will be abundant through Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... For the most part, looking at VFR conditions through the period. However, there are exceptions. To start MVFR ceilings currently in place at KPSF and KPOU. Not expecting this to change much into tonight. Presence of lower clouds and breeze should preclude development of IFR BR/FG at these sites. KGFL should see least clouds and winds trending to calm overnight. These conditions look favorable for development of typical autumn IFR FG. Finally a light breeze at KALB through the night should maintain VFR conditions. All terminals should be VFR by 14-15Z Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next several days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. Relative humidity values will increase to near 100 percent tonight, then decrease to minimum values of 40 to 50 percent Thursday afternoon. RH values Thursday night will increase to between 80 and 100 percent. Winds tonight through Thursday night will be northerly around 5 to 15 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast into next week as high pressure dominates. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV

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