Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 190854 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 454 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Some rain and breezy conditions should impact areas south and east of the Capital District today into Wednesday in association with Jose. The weather is then expected to be fair and dry Wednesday night through the weekend into early next week with temperatures continuing to be above normal.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The area is squeezed between Jose off the coast and a cold front gradually approaching from the northwest with ridging extended across the local area. Stratus advected in from the southeast and clouds are caught under an inversion which can be seen on the 06Z/Tuesday upper air sounding (which was launched in support of National Hurricane Center operations). Also where skies have been mostly clear to partly cloudy radiational fog has developed. The stratus and fog are expected to lift and mix out by late morning. Some showers within the outer bands of Jose are expected for areas to the south and east of the Capital District. Have chances pops across the southeastern portion of the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be above normal but not as warm as yesterday due to increased cloud cover. It will continue to be muggy/humid with dew points in the 60s across much of the area. Northeast winds will develop today and be on the increase this afternoon especially across northwestern Connecticut into the Berkshires and mid Hudson Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Chances for showers are expected to linger across the southeastern half of the forecast area into early Wednesday as the cold front presses into the region and Jose passes south of Long Island and Cape Cod. North to northeast winds will increase and are expected to be at their strongest Wednesday morning with gusts up to 30 mph across northwest CT. Jose is forecast to weaken as it lingers off the east coast. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecast and other details on Jose. Ridging will build in at all levels of the atmosphere so fair and warm conditions are expected as we move into the latter part of the week with highs back into the lower 80s up the Hudson River Valley and in portions of the Mohawk Valley for Thursday. Dew points are not expected to be a high Thursday with readings in the 50s which will result in more comfortable humidity levels and a cooler night Thursday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Fairly good agreement among deterministic models and fairly low spread in ensemble guidance in the long term period. The period is expected to be characterized by dry weather with temperatures warmer than normal, possibly significantly so. The longwave pattern will feature a full-latitude trough across the Intermountain West with an anomalous downstream ridge with +1 to +2 SD 500 mb heights across the northeastern US. Still some uncertainty with respect to the track of Jose, which is expected to be post-tropical during the long term period. Consensus places Jose offshore on Friday in the vicinity of 40N/65W. Thereafter, most models allow it to just drift around, not making much headway into early next week. However, a minority of GEFS members as well as the 12Z/18 ECMWF allow the ridge to expand far enough north that Jose`s remnants meander back toward the vicinity of New Jersey by the end of the period. It`s something to watch for, but does not appear to be a high probability event at this time, so the forecast was left dry. Otherwise, the main story should be the warm temps. With the aforementioned anomalous ridge, likely bolstered by Jose`s outflow, and accompanying H850 temps averaging around +16C (also +1 to +2 SD per the GEFS), highs in the 70s and 80s will be common. It also appears to be somewhat humid with dewpoints in the 60s, so overnight lows will be well above normal as well. All told, daily average temps could run 10-15F or more above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tricky forecast for the remainder of the night with respect to coverage of stratus and fog potential. Current satellite imagery and observations show patches of stratus in the 2-4 kft AGL layer. Forecast soundings suggest this is due to moisture trapped beneath a weak inversion, which is also somewhat evident on the 00Z KALY sounding. Should this stratus persist, fog would likely struggle to develop. This TAF package has backed off the fog potential somewhat, but still allowed for periods of fog closer to 08-13Z with TEMPOs conditional upon if any clearing develops. Given the somewhat moist boundary layer, fog is still possible. It would be most likely at KGFL. Forecast soundings suggest moisture will mix out into at BKN MVFR/VFR stratus layer during the late morning hours. A few showers within the outer bands of TC Jose may impact KPSF/KPOU during the afternoon hours. For now, have kept vsby in showers at MVFR as there is still uncertainty with how far west the rain will extend. Winds for the remainder of the night will be light and variable to calm. Winds will become northeast around 5 kt during the day, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt in the evening at KPOU/KPSF. Outlook... Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Some rain and breezy conditions should impact areas south and east of the Capital District today into Wednesday in association withe Jose. The weather is then expected to be fair and dry Wednesday night through the weekend into early next week with temperatures continuing to be above normal. Minimum relative humidity will rather high today with values in the 60s with 70s across western new England. Recovery tonight will be near 100 percent. Minimums values Wednesday afternoon are expected to be in the 50s with 60s across western New England.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected. Expected rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Jose is less than previous forecast as track as shifted a bit eastward. At this time, the current forecast has little if any rain from the Capital District northwestward with amounts ranging from up to a quarter to a third of an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast. The weather is expected to be fair and dry Wednesday night through the weekend into early next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Thompson AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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