Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 182037 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 337 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will bring some snow showers tonight into early Friday for areas mainly north and west of Albany. Generally dry weather is expected over the upcoming weekend, with milder temperatures compared to our recent cold spell. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EST, low clouds are continuing to gradually expand south and east, covering most areas near and north of I-90. Some spotty light snow showers continue across the far western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, with flurries extending into the central/eastern Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley and portions of the Capital Region, as well as higher terrain across southern VT and NW MA. Weak low/mid level warm advection will continue this evening. In fact, forecast soundings suggest a warm layer between H8-H7, peaking slightly above 0C, with the coldest temps at or below H925. Expect clouds to persist for most areas from I-90 north, with occasional light snow grains/flurries. Then, a potent shortwave currently traversing the northern Great Lakes will approach after midnight. Synoptic forcing ahead of this feature should work in tandem with Lake moisture to produce an increase in snow showers and flurries after midnight for areas near and north of I-90. Up to an inch of accumulation could occur across the far western Adirondacks, with mainly a dusting to a few tenths of an inch possible elsewhere, including lower elevations. There could be local enhancement across some higher terrain of southern VT as well, where up to an inch or two could occur. With the expectation for more clouds than last night, and some wind, expect milder temps overall from I-90 northward, with mins mainly in the teens. Some locally colder temps could occur in portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, where more breaks in the clouds and lighter winds are expected, Some temps in these areas could fall into the single digits. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday, some lingering snow showers/flurries may be ongoing for areas north and near I-90 in the morning, before areal coverage decreases later in the morning through the afternoon. However, low clouds may hang tough for many areas near and north of I-90, as Lake moisture remains trapped beneath a lowering subsidence inversion, especially from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Highs should be mainly in the 20s to lower 30s, except milder across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Winds may tend to be brisk once again, especially within and close to the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, where gusts up to 25 mph are possible. Friday night-Saturday, a clipper like system will track east, north of the Great Lakes region. A strengthening west/southwest low level jet will develop across the region, with warm advection ensuing. Low clouds from Friday should shift northward in the evening, with clear to partly cloudy skies expected for most areas through midday Saturday outside of the western Adirondacks. Low clouds may tend to then expand back south and east late Saturday into Saturday night as winds veer more into the west/northwest. Friday night lows should be in the teens and 20s. Saturday highs should reach the 40s from Albany southward in valley areas, and generally mid 30s to around 40 to the north and west. Some drizzle or snow grains may develop across the western Adirondacks later Saturday. Also, it should become quite breezy Saturday, with some gusts possibly reaching 25-35 mph or slightly stronger. Saturday night-Sunday, the cold front associated with the clipper system should gradually settle southward across the region late Saturday night into Sunday. This should bring areas of clouds, and perhaps some flurries/snow showers to some higher elevation areas. Saturday night lows should be relatively mild, mainly in the 20s, although if clouds become widespread enough, could be even warmer in some lower elevations. For Sunday, highs mainly in the 30s to lower 40s, although may tend to drop in the afternoon across northern areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A strong storm is still forecast to develop across the center of the nation later this weekend into early next week per the global model consensus. Downstream impacts will be a warm front lifting northward, or attempting too, as large Canadian high pressure remains situated across James Bay/Hudson Bay vicinity which extends its influence across New England. This could result in a wintry mixture of weather developing from southwest to northeast overnight Sunday into Monday. Monday into Monday night, portions of our forecast area may remain cold enough as low level ageostrophic flow remains from the north despite the increasing low level southerly jet of near +3 standard deviations above normal. Furthermore, PWATs are forecast to climb up close to +2 standard deviations above normal where the potential for some moderate precipitation rates. Latest QPF amounts of around 1 inch with a little higher values into the higher terrain. As a nearly vertically stacked low tracks across the Great Lakes region, its associated dry slot approaches during the daylight hours Tuesday. This should allow for a gradual reduction in precipitation coverage and change the precipitation type to mainly liquid across the region (exception appears to the be the Dacks). This should be the warmest portion of the long term period with mainly mid 30s-mid 40s. Colder cyclonic flow and some lake effect activity will have the chance for some snow showers in the wake of the storm tracking northeast across the St Lawrence Valley. Highs Wednesday will generally be in the 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures look to average near to slightly above normal to precipitation at or above normal. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCT-BKN MVFR ceilings across KALB-KPSF-KGFL that recent satellite trends show more breaks in the overcast than what hi-res short term models would suggest. So outside of a TEMPO MVFR for favorable upslope conditions into the Berkshires for KPSF and downwind of the lake into KGFL, we will keep VFR flight conditions in the TAFs at this time. VFR conditions should prevail tonight with an increase of clouds expected overnight into Friday where MVFR CIGS are expected to report. Northwesterly winds should prevail through the afternoon hours, becoming westerly tonight. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place. A gradual warming trend will occur beginning this weekend, although the degree of warming is not expected to be as significant as what occurred last week. We will monitor trends in temperatures due to potential impacts on existing ice jams. In terms of precipitation, only some snow showers are expected through Friday, with generally dry conditions expected over the upcoming weekend. A period of mixed precipitation and/or rain is possible early next week, although details on precipitation types and amounts are uncertain at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...IAA/BGM HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

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