Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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562 FXUS61 KALY 171721 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1221 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system positioned just off the Delmarva early this morning, will track northeast to near Cape Cod by this afternoon. This system continues to bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to much of the region. The system will move into the Canadian Maritimes this evening, with snow ending across our area during the afternoon. Seasonably cold and mainly dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday, with some lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 1215 PM EST, band of moderate to locally heavy snow persists from Schoharie County northeast across the Capital Region and into southern VT. This band is very slowly sinking east/southeast, while the individual elements are translating northeast within the band. Snowfall rates of up to an inch/hour will remain possible within this band. We expect the areal coverage of this band to gradually decrease between 1 and 3 PM, but may persist longest close to the Capital Region into the north central Taconics, as some Mohawk-Hudson convergence could allow the snow to linger in this area. So, through 4 PM, an additional 1-3 inches could occur close to the Capital Region (from the current time), with generally a coating to 2 inches of additional snowfall elsewhere. Across the western Adirondacks, some upslope/Lake Enhanced snow could contribute to an additional 1-2 inches through this afternoon, if not locally higher, across portions of northern Herkimer CO through this afternoon. Temperature should hold steady, or slowly fall from NW to SE through this afternoon, through the 20s in most lower elevations, and 20s into the mid/upper teens across higher terrain. West/northwest winds should increase within and south of the Mohawk Valley/Berkshires, to 10-20 mph by mid/late afternoon, with some gusts of 25-30 mph possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A small ridge of high pressure will build in to much of the region tonight, although well-aligned westerly flow and conditional lake- induced instability will lead to some lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks. Snow showers will be light and scattered, due to forecast low inversion heights of only around 850 mb. Elsewhere, it will be partly cloudy with temperatures near normal with single digits to lower teens. Similar weather expected for Thursday, as a flat ridge of high pressure at the surface will be in place. The continued westerly flow will result in scattered light lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks, but dry elsewhere. High temperatures will be near normal in the 20s to lower 30s. Models in good agreement with a fast-moving and compact short wave trough moving through Thursday night. This will result in mainly isolated to scattered snow showers from around I-90 northward, with the greater coverage across the western/southern Adirondacks. A quick half inch to one inch of snow is expected in these areas. More flat ridging across the region on Friday with mainly dry conditions expected. Some light lake enhanced/upslope snow showers could linger into the western Adirondacks, but most areas will be dry. Tempertures will moderate slightly, with generally upper 20s to mid 30s expected for highs. Tranquil conditions in store for Friday night, with the flat ridge remaining in place. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Above normal temperatures expected with a low pressure system passing to our west and north across the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada early next week. Guidance is in general agreement with the longwave pattern featuring nearly zonal flow across the region over the weekend with ridging being induced along the east coast ahead of an approaching closed low Monday. However, there are amplitude and timing differences amongst the models. The ECMWF is deepen and slower with the system however the Weather Prediction Center indicates there was better clustering with the GFS, GEFS mean, EC mean and CMC so this timing was favored for the forecast. Based on this, the greatest chances for precipitation are Monday night. Have the chances for precipitation increasing Sunday night into Monday night. Precipitation types gets complicated as night time lows are expected to be mainly in the 30s Monday night. With uncertainty in both timing and temperature profile have gone with rain and snow forecast however there could be some freezing rain but that`s very difficult to determine that at this time. QPF amounts are very uncertain also. With ice jams in place across area will closely monitor expected temperatures and potential rainfall. With the passage of this system back to seasonable cold temperatures. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow extending across portions of eastern New York into southern Vermont and trends favor this band to slide southward into the Berkshires. Another band was underway into the mid-Hudson Valley as well. So through the early afternoon hours, period of IFR conditions should prevail with both VIS and CIGS. Toward sunset, snow should begin to diminish but leave behind MVFR CIGS for most areas. West-northwest winds 10kts or less should continue through the afternoon hours, then become light and variable for the Hudson Valley locations but remain westerly at KPSF. SCT-BKN CIGS within MVFR thresholds should return on Thursday with a weak frontal passage and some lake effect clouds. Outlook... Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed with areal flood warnings. There could still be some lingering issues as any existing ice jams may tend to become frozen in place due to the continued cold temperatures over the next few days. Warmer weather is not expected until the weekend. In terms of precipitation, a moderate snowfall is ongoing for much of the area into today, with heavy snowfall from the mid Hudson Valley and Taconics eastward across western New England. Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend except for some lake effect snow showers well north and west of the Capital District. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ001- 013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063-082>084. Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ054- 061-064>066. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...KL/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...JPV

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