Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 182011 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 411 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging in from Maine will bring mainly fair and mild weather into this evening. Tropical Cyclone Jose will bring some rain and breezy conditions to the southeast part of the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. The weather is expected to be fair, dry and continued mild Thursday through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 4:11 PM...A few showers and some isolated thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain this afternoon with very slow movement to the west or northwest noted. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s. Winds are from and easterly direction at 5 to to kts. Slight chance/chance showers with isolated thunder for the remainder of the afternoon all areas based on radar echoes.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Afternoon diurnal showers and thunderstorms will die out around sunset as suns heating wanes. Ridging across the region weakens and shifts northeastward as Jose moves up the east coast, but should keep most of tonight fair. Some dense morning fog expected to form again tonight as good radiational cooling takes place. Fog most dense in the river valleys. Some stratus may advect westward again into the berkshires and Litchfield Hills from off the Atlantic Ocean. Lows tonight in the 50s and 60s. The exact track of Jose will determine the extent of rainfall the local area will receive, but Tropical Cyclone Jose will bring some rain and breezy conditions to the southeast part of the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. Based on the current forecast track chances for rain will be on the increase Tuesday from the southeast with high chance to likely pops for northwestern Connecticut, the Berkshires and southern Taconics. At this time, the current forecast has little if any rain northwest of the Capital District with amounts ranging from about a quarter of an inch in portions of the Capital District up to an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast. Highs Tuesday in 60s southeast to 70s northwest. As for the winds, they will be on the increase especially late in the day Tuesday and at night. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday south and east of the Capital District with northeast winds up to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Again any change in the track of Jose will impact the wind forecast. Wednesday night, any lingering precipitation over extreme southeast Litchfield County should end early in the evening. The rest of the night should be fair with lows in the 50s to around 60. Form formation may be held at bay by lingering northerly winds of 5 to 10 kts. Refer to forecasts and products issued by the National Hurricane Center for details on Jose.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The long-term forecast will exhibit above average (~10 degrees) temperatures and dry weather Thursday through Monday. Outflow from tropical cyclone Jose will enhance the upper-tropospheric ridging over the Northeast and result in surface high pressure. The high pressure and subsidence will result in dry weather with mostly sunny conditions throughout the forecast period with the exception of a bit more skycover Southeast of the Capital Region. High temperatures will begin in the mid to upper 70`s on Thursday and gradually warm into the low to mid 80s by next Monday. Low temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with higher elevations running a few degrees cooler.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure will control our weather through tonight but the northwestern edge of hurricane Jose is expected to brush the KPOU and KPSF areas by Tuesday morning. VFR conditions at all sites through this evening. Clear sky and light winds will promote fog and low cloud development between midnight and daybreak, likely down to IFR levels. Scattered rain showers and light northeast winds will develop at KPOU and KPSF after 06Z- 07Z. IFR conditions improve to MVFR through Tuesday morning at KPOU and KPSF. Conditions improve to VFR Tuesday morning at KALB and KGFL. The best coverage of scattered showers at KPOU and KPSF should be after 13Z. There may not be any showers near KALB and KGFL until after 18Z Tuesday. The winds will become east to southeast at 4 to 8 Kt through this afternoon, before becoming light at 4 Kt or less tonight. Winds become north to northeast at 5 to 10 Kt Tuesday morning. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night through Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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High pressure ridging in from Maine will bring mainly fair and mild weather into this evening. Tropical Cyclone Jose will bring some rain and breezy conditions to the southeast part of the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. The weather is expected to be fair, dry and continued mild Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Relative humidity values recover to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are expected to be even higher 75 to 85 percent south and east of the Capital District with chance for rain with values mainly in the 60s northwest of the Capital District. Light southeasterly winds forecast tonight. Winds will shift to the east and northeast Tuesday and increase during the day with some gusts into the teens Tuesday afternoon across northwestern Connecticut, Berkshires and into the mid Hudson Valley.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected at this time. The exact track of Tropical Cyclone Jose will determine the extent of rainfall the local area will receive this week. At this time, the current forecast has little if any rain northwest of the Capital District with amounts ranging from about a quarter of an inch in portions of the Capital District up to around an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast. At this time, the weather is expected to be fair and dry Thursday through the upcoming weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND NEAR TERM...SND SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...SND HYDROLOGY...SND

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