Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 181046 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 646 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to dominate our weather into this evening with fair, warm and humid conditions. Tropical cyclone Jose will have some impacts on the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts and other details regarding Jose. At this time, the weather is expected to be fair and dry Thursday through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Ridging will continue to dominate our weather with fair, warm and humid conditions today. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal with dew points in the 60s making quite muggy. Radiational fog, locally dense, across much of area especially in the river valley with stratus and fog across northwestern Connecticut and into portions of the mid Hudson Valley and Berkshires that advected in from the southeast overnight. It will take until mid to late morning for the fog and stratus to lift and burn off, then looking at a mostly to partly sunny conditions. Some isolated showers are possible this afternoon with the heating of the day mainly across the higher terrain. A Special Weather Statement was issued earlier this morning for the fog valid until 14Z. Portions of the Hudson and Mohawk river valleys should have afternoon highs into the lower 80s; otherwise expecting highs in the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Ridging across the region weakens and shifts northeastward as Jose moves up the east coast. Our fair weather is expected to come to an end as Jose impacts the region. The exact track of Jose will determine the extent of rainfall the local area will receive. Based on the current forecast track chances for rain will be on the increase late tonight into Tuesday from the southeast with likely pops for northwestern Connecticut, the Berkshires and into the Taconics much of Tuesday. At this time, the current forecast has little if any rain northwest of the Capital District with amounts ranging from about a quarter of an inch in portions of the Capital District up to about an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast. As for the winds, they will be on the increase especially late in the day Tuesday and at night. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday south and east of the Capital District with northeast winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Again any change in the track of Jose will impact the wind forecast. Refer to forecasts and products issued by the National Hurricane Center for details on Jose. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended forecast opens with Tropical Cyclone Jose meandering south and east of Cape Cod. The medium range guidance varies on the exact positioning of where tropical/or subtropical Jose goes Thu into Saturday, but overall following the official NHC track it looks like it will have little impact on the ALY forecast area, except for some clouds south and east the Capital District THU, as a ridge of high pressure at the sfc and aloft will be building in across the region with mainly dry weather and above normal temps into next weekend. Thu-Fri Night...Jose moves away from Cape Cod as a broad H500 ridge builds in over the eastern half of the CONUS with a longwave trough over the western half. H850 temps will be in the +13C to +15C range on THU with breezy north to northeast winds, as high pressure will be building in from south-central Quebec and Jose departs south/southeast of Cape Cod. High temps on Thu will be above normal by 5 or so degrees as highs will be in the mid and upper 70s in the valleys, and upper 60s to lower 70s over the mountains. Clouds will linger mainly south and east of the Capital District before clearing before evening. Decreasing winds and clear/mostly clear skies occur THU night with cooler temps in the 50s with a few upper 40s across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. By Friday, mid and upper level heights continue over the Northeast with a closed H500 anticyclone moving over the lower Great Lakes Region and Midwest /591 decameter closed isoheight according to the 00Z ECMWF/. H850 temps will be 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal for the opening day of astronomical Fall. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F in the many of the valley locales, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns. Near ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow lows mainly in the 50s again. For the exact track of Jose during this period, please refer to the National Hurricane Center`s official forecast. Saturday-Sunday...The first weekend of Fall will feel a bit like summer with the mid and upper level ridge firmly in control over the East Coast based on the medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance. H850 temps will continue to be 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal according to the 00Z GEFS. The actual H850 temps according to the GFS will be in the +16C to +18C range with highs predominately in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Saturday and Sunday across the region with perhaps a few mid 80s in the valley locations on Sunday. Some of the mountain tops will be a tad cooler in the lower 70s. Lows Saturday night with light to calm winds, clear/mostly clear skies and a dry air mass due to the subsidence with the ridge will be in the 50s. Overall, above normal temps and below normal pcpn is likely in the extended. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Hurricane High pressure will slowly move east of the region this morning. A cold front will be approaching from the Great Lakes Region during the day, as tropical cyclone Jose will be moving northward in the western Atlantic east of the East Coast today into tonight. Expecting another round of radiational fog and low stratus this morning. The radiational fog will likely occur at KGFL/KPSF where vsbys/cigs will lower into the LIFR range especially between 08Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU is a tough call since some low stratus will likely develop and move up the mid-Hudson Valley into the Capital District impacting KALB/KPOU. We have a period of IFR conditions in terms of cigs/vsbys between 08Z-13Z at these two sites. The low stratus may not reach KALB until 10Z. Low stratus and/or mist/fog with associated LIFR/IFR conditions may persist until at least 13Z-15Z, before slowly improving to MVFR/low VFR by the noon/early afternoon. Expecting a few-sct cumulus and sct-bkn cirrus around. There maybe an isolated shower around KPSF/KGFL but did not include in the TAF at this time. Some low stratus in the MVFR range may develop quickly this evening at KPSF, and expand across the region with the increasing low-level moisture ahead of a frontal boundary north of Jose. The winds will be mainly calm until mid morning, then will become east to southeast at 4 to 7 Kt in the afternoon, before becoming light at 5 Kt or less tonight. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will continue to dominate our weather into this evening with fair, warm and humid conditions. Tropical cyclone Jose will have some impacts on the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts and other details regarding Jose. At this time, the weather is expected to be fair and dry Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Minimum relative humidity values are only expected to be in the 50s this afternoon with some higher values into the 60s across the higher terrain. Recovery to near 100 percent is expected tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are expected to be even higher 70 to 85 percent south and east of the Capital District with chance for rain with values mainly in the 60s northwest of the Capital District. Light southeasterly winds develop today. Winds will shift to the east-northeast Tuesday and increase during the day with some gusts into the teens Tuesday afternoon across northwestern Connecticut, Berkshires and into the mid Hudson Valley. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected at this time. The exact track of Tropical Cyclone Jose will determine the extent of rainfall the local area will receive this week. At this time, the current forecast has little if any rain northwest of the Capital District with amounts ranging from about a quarter of an inch in portions of the Capital District up to about an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast. Refer to forecasts and products issued by the National Hurricane Center. At this time, the weather is expected to be fair and dry Thursday through the upcoming weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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