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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 130528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
128 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon showers and a few rumbles of thunder exit by
sunset with winds shifting to the southwest and remaining breezy.
Winds stay breezy overnight with much cooler air overspreading the
region in the wake of a cold front. Additional rain and even snow
showers for the higher terrain return tonight and continue into the
day tomorrow. We remain breezy and turn noticeably colder
tomorrow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Update...As of 1:30 AM EDT...GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows
increasing mid and upper-level moisture moving into our region
from the west due to an upper low situated over upstate NY.
Accordingly, coverage of showers is increasing across the
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and northeastern Catskills. Cold
front is just now approaching our western CWA border, and should
track through the region during the remainder of the overnight
period. Winds begins to increase towards daybreak in the wake of
the front, and temperatures should drop into the 30s and 40s
for overnight lows. Some wet snow could mix in with any showers
later tonight across the high terrain of the ADKs and
Catskills, but any accumulation will be minor. Bumped up temps a
few degrees for the next couple hours ahead of the cold front,
but otherwise mainly just minor updates with this forecast
package...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Trough axis and upper level closed low moves overhead after
Midnight ushering in a much cooler air mass and wrap around
precipitation thanks to moist, cyclonic flow. Winds shift from
the southwest to west overnight in the wake of the trough axis,
resulting in cold air advection. Temperatures trend into the 40s
in the valley with 30s in the higher terrain. Rain showers may
mix with or even turn to mainly wet snow showers in the higher
terrain of the southern Adirondacks as temperatures drop into
the low to mid 30s by the pre-dawn hours. Additional rain
amounts overnight are still expected to be much lower compared
to the daytime with just around or under 0.10" expected. With
breezy westerly winds continuing overnight and froude numbers
remaining under 1 suggesting blocked flow, some upslope showers
should lead to enhanced precip amounts on the west facing slopes
of the Taconics and southern Greens.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
It will feel much cooler tomorrow as we remain under the
influence of the upper level closed low and moist, cyclonic
flow. Temperatures will struggle to rise out of the 40s thanks
to strong west to northwest winds gusting up to 30 - 40mph and
cloudy skies. Winds will be close to reaching wind advisory
criteria (46mph+) with the best chance in the higher terrain of
the eastern Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires, southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens where gusts up to 50mph are
forecast. However, the cloudy skies and limited boundary layer
mixing may impede the strongest winds from reaching the sfc over
a larger geographic area but will continue to monitor trends.
If confidence in wind gusts reaching or exceeding 46mph in a
larger area increases, we may need the issue a wind advisory.

Additional wrap around rain showers will continue through the
daytime with the froude number trending back up above 1 during
the morning, suggesting flow will no longer be blocked and
showers should track overtop the Taconics and southern Greens.
Valley areas should see less shower activity compared to the
western Mohawk Valley, southern/western Adirondacks, and eastern
Catskills as showers may downslope and dry up as they reach the
valley. Given chilly temperatures, the higher terrain areas of
the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens can continue to see
wet snow showers but accumulations look minimal, generally near
or under an inch. Froude number trend downwards during the
afternoon as winds shift to the northwest suggesting some
upslope enhancements may return to the west side of the
Taconics and southern Greens. Even still, overall QPF amounts
daytime Saturday should be highest in western New England and
the western/southern Adirondacks due to upslope enhancements
resulting in 0.15 - 0.30" (locally up to 0.50" at the crest of
the southern Greens) with under a tenth in the Hudson Valley.

Our upper level low and the associated moist, cyclonic flow
slowly exits Saturday night, ending our wrap around showers.
Clouds should give way to clearing as subsidence builds into the
Northeast which will help temperatures cool down even further
into the 30s. Northwest winds will remain breezy overnight
with gusts up to 30mph still possible through at least Midnight.
Winds should be on the downward trend thereafter as high
pressure from the mid- Atlantic builds into the area.

We start Sunday dry with even some early sun. However, a sfc
warm front will be pushing into the Northeast with a northern
stream shortwave tracking into northern New England. While
temperatures will be warmer than Saturday, highs will be
dependent on how far north the sfc warm front track. Should it
end up tracking further north, more of our region will enter the
associated warm sector and climb into the 60s (even mid-60s).
Areas that remain near or north of the boundary will end up
cooler in the 50s. Areas in the warm sector should have an
opportunity to destabilize with a notable low and mid-level jet
from the mid-Atlantic spreading into the region leading to
increased shear. Morning sun will fade behind increasing clouds
as the northern stream disturbance and cold front arrive during
the afternoon. Areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT should
remain dry the longest and has the greatest potential to enter
into the warm sector which could be primed for some strong to
even severe weather. The incoming cold front sweeps through the
region Sunday afternoon into the evening and will likely lead
to areas of rain and potential thunderstorms, especially for
areas that can tap into the warm sector.

Showers associated with our cold front should end Sunday evening
with temperatures trending cooler overnight in its wake
dropping into the 40s to upper 30s. Some partial clearing will
also ensue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We finally get a break from the active weather pattern Monday
and Tuesday and should enjoy dry, spring-like weather. Our
upper level trough will be exiting the Northeast on Monday but
we remain under northwest flow as high pressure from the Great
Lakes builds eastward. Winds remain a bit breezy as the pressure
gradient stays tight resulting in dry and weak cool air
advection. Still expecting spring-like temperatures Monday
thanks to deeper boundary layer mixing so we bumped up highs
compared to the NBM guidance to show temperatures reaching into
the low 60s in the valley with mid to upper 50s in the higher
terrain. Any early clouds should break for increased sun as
well.

Tuesday will be the pick of the week as high pressure and upper
level ridging build overhead leading to plenty of sunshine and
very pleasant spring temperatures warming well into the 60s.
PWATS drop 0.50" under continued northwest flow and dry air
advection so we will have a dry air mass in place.

Chances for precipitation return Wednesday through Friday as
our next low pressure system tracks from the Midwest through the
Great Lakes. While there is decent forecast agreement that we
will have to monitor a southern stream shortwave and watch if it
phases with a northern stream trough in the Upper Great Plains,
there remain uncertainties on how exactly when, how or even if
this phasing occurs. This system may lead to another period of
widespread rain but again there remains uncertainty. We have
widespread chance POPs in the forecast Wed through Friday and
will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front is east of the region but the upper low is still
west of the region, and scattered showers will affect the areas
through tomorrow. This evening, most of the showers are well
west of the TAF sites but scattered showers will move back into
the region later tonight and continue through Saturday. Because
of the scattered nature to the showers, including some P6SM with
-RA in some time periods and some VCSH in other periods, based on
 expected times of best chances for a potential shower to
 affect the TAF sites.

Ceilings and visibilities will be VFR this evening, into the
early morning hours. Ceilings will trend to MVFR between about
06Z-12Z as the showers move back in. Gusty west winds and the
scattered nature to the showers will allow for ceilings to be
just above 3000 feet, in the VFR range at KALB and KPOU after
about 13Z-14Z and through the rest of the day. MVFR ceilings
should persist at KGFL and KPSF.

Southwest winds at around 10 Kt will shift to west southwest
toward and after daybreak Saturday and increase to 10 to 20 Kt.
Winds will shift to west through Saturday afternoon and continue
at 10 to 20 Kt with gusts around 25 Kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall over the past 24 hours has amounted to 1 to 2.50 inches
with multiple river rises noted on the Esopus, Schoharie,
Williams, and Housatonic river basins.. Daytime rainfall today
has overperformed and with rivers already elevated from rain
last night, some rivers will stay near bankfull through this
evening. Some forecast points may even see renewed river
flooding, especially on the Schoharie and Esopus Creek given
that the most rain has fallen in the eastern Catskills. The
warm, moist environment over the region today with high freezing
heights ~10kft has resulted in efficient warm rain process with
the unidirectional flow through the column and parallel to the
sfc boundary supporting training or heavy rain repeatedly
impacting an area.

Hourly rainfall amounts from the NYS mesonet have been rather
impressive reaching 0.25 - 0.50" in spots. Such heavy rainfall
rates and the slow nature of the rain has produce localized
urban and poor drainage flooding. Luckily, the heavy rain should
exit into New England and the North Country by sunset, ending
the urban/poor drainage flooding potential. Rivers will remain
elevated into this evening and we will continue to monitor river
rises/crest levels for any renewed flooding.

River observations and forecasts can be monitored using the
National Water Prediction Service located at water.noaa.gov.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Main/NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Speciale