Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 242311
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
711 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over southern Quebec will bring fair and
cold conditions tonight.  The surface high will continue to bring
fair and seasonable conditions tomorrow into Tuesday.  Temperatures
rise above normal Tuesday into Wednesday with the next chance of
showers arriving mid week ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 705 PM EDT, skies remain mainly clear with light
winds in place. Winds should generally trend to calm overnight,
allowing temps to drop off rapidly. Some min temps likely
falling to around/below zero across portions of the deeply-snow
covered southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley, and teens
and lower 20s elsewhere.

Other than very minor adjustments to temps/dewpoints according
to latest obs, no other changes made to ongoing forecast at this
time.

[PREVIOUS 359 PM EDT]...As of 400 pm EDT...High pressure
continues to ridge in from southern Quebec tonight. The 1040 hPa
sfc anticylone will yield clear to mostly clear skies with
light to calm winds. A fresh, deep snow pack is in place from
portions of the Capital Region north and west. Ideal radiational
cooling conditions are expected.

We went below the the NBM MOS numbers and closer to and
slightly below the coldest ECM MOS values. Lows will be in the
single digits over the southern Dacks, western Mohawk Valley,
Lake George Saratoga Region and portions of southern VT with
teens to lower/mid 20s from the Capital Region/Berkshires south
and east. Some below zero readings are possible over portions of
the Adirondack Park.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tomorrow...The sfc anticylone slides east towards Labrador. A
cut-off low will be kicking around over the western Atlantic.
Mid and upper level heights increase over the East Coast.
Ridging is building in. The winds will increase from the
northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph. It will continue to be mostly
sunny to sunny. Temps will trend closer to late March normals.
Max temps in the mid 40s to around 50F will be common in the
lower elevations with mid 30s to lower 40s over the higher
terrain. Some cooler temps in the lower 40s are possible in the
Upper Hudson Valley/Lake George Region and the western Mohawk
Valley where deeper snow pack exists.

Monday night into Tuesday...A sfc anticyclone continues to nudge
in from the Mid Atlantic corridor with the cut-off spinning
over the western Atlantic with some clouds and moisture getting
into New England by Tue. A mid and upper level trough is
approaching from the Plains and the Upper Midwest. Near ideal
radiational cooling are possible Monday night, except the winds
may persist from the north to northeast at less than 10 mph and
some clouds may back in from the east over western New England.
Lows will not be as cold as tonight with lows in the teens to
mid/upper 20s. Tuesday will feature increasing clouds with low
and mid level warm advection. As ridging continues one more day.
Some light showers or drizzle may sneak in from the south and
east. Temps moderate to near and slightly above seasonal normals
with some snowmelt occurring. Highs will be in the 40s to lower
50s with some colder readings over southern VT in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended begins with milder and inclement weather returning
by the mid week. A broad mid level long-wave trough moves east
of the MS River Valley on Wed. The cold front will increase the
clouds and bring a bout of showers. Some patchy drizzle or light
showers may occur Tue night. A few snow showers are possible
over the mountains. Temps rise above normal ahead of the front
with increasing low level south to southwesterly flow. Lows
will be in mainly in the 30s with highs on Wed in the mid and
upper 50s in the valleys and 40s to lower 50s over the higher
terrain.

The front slowly moves east of the region Wednesday into
Thursday. Mid and upper level cyclonic flow will persist across
the region. Scattered showers will continue across the forecast
area. The greater chances on Thursday may be south and east of
Albany. Weak cold advection occurs with the frontal passage.
Lows fall into the mid 30s over the southern Dacks to lower/mid
40s over NW CT and the mid Hudson Valley. Highs on Thursday will
be in the mid 40s to lower 50s with brisk conditions.

Some of the medium range guidance and the ensembles have the
mid and upper level trough turn negatively tilted over the
Northeast on Friday with any oceanic cyclone kicking out to Nova
Scotia. Other like the CMC have a wave move along the front
with a coastal low impacting the forecast area with rain/snow
Fri into Fri night/Sat morning. The WPC/NBM guidance trends
towards drier conditions on Friday with temps near normal. We
leaned closer to NBM/WPC. Next weekend looks mainly dry and
seasonably cool as we close March. Northwest flow persists aloft
on Saturday. The mid and upper level flow becomes more zonal
over the Northeast by Sunday with the another disturbance and a
warm front approaching. CPC`s latest Day 8-14 Outlook is calling
for near to slightly above normal temps and slightly above
normal pcpn for the first full week of April across eastern NY
and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains firmly in place across the region
overnight into Monday. VFR conditions with mainly clear skies
expected through Monday. However, will have to monitor trends at
KGFL, as there is a low probability that some patchy ground
freezing fog develop between 08Z-11Z/Mon. Have not included in
TAF at this time due to overall low probability.

Light/variable winds trending to calm overnight, then east to
northeast winds Monday at 4-8 KT.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warnings for minor flooding have been issued for
Brookfield on the Still River, Gaylordsville, Falls Village and
Stevenson Dam on the Housatonic. Flows should crest late this
afternoon into tonight and begin to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gitro/KL
HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula


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