Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 210814 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 414 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next several days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Early morning water vapor shows TS Jose drifting ENE, SE of Cape Cod, while an area of thunderstorms is located over the western Great Lakes. A narrow ridge extends northeastward in between the two features. Areas of high cirrus from Jose are located over the local forecast area. A light northerly breeze persists in spots, but more sheltered areas that have decoupled under thinner cirrus/spots of clearing are starting to develop fog. Another warm and dry day is expected today as Jose continues to not go anywhere fast and slowly continue to weaken. Patches of high cirrus will persist, but possibly a bit less than yesterday. High temps may be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday in the upper 70s and low 80s. It will be a bit breezy in spots, especially across parts of western New England closer to Jose where gusts close to 20 kt could occur during the afternoon. Somewhat cooler tonight than previous nights as the northerly winds usher in slightly drier air. Fog is possible in favored areas, but possibly somewhat less than usual given a light breeze in spots and perhaps a bit of cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Persistence is the name of the game as the upper ridge expands westward and Jose drifts around and slowly fills. That ridge at 500 mb, along with temps at 850 mb, are 1 to 2 SD above normal over the local area. Plenty of sunshine is expected aside from a few passing cirrus. Somewhat less humid Friday as the northerly winds on the periphery of Jose usher in slightly drier air. A bit breezy again with some gusts to around 20 kt across western New England and the Taconics. Dewpoints begin to creep back up Saturday and winds decrease as we lose the influence from Jose. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s will run some 10 degrees above normal. Fog is possible in favored low-lying, water-adjacent areas at night, especially Saturday night as winds look to go calm everywhere.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Guidance is in agreement ridging will dominate the region at all levels of the atmosphere into early next week as Hurricane Maria moves gradually northward and Jose meanders off the coast and weakens. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts on Jose and Maria. As the ridge strengthens even warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 80s with 90 degrees possible for some locales. Daytime highs are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above normal; near record values. Also with the heat comes rising dew points and increasingly humid conditions with heat indices into the lower 90s possible. The ridge is expected to weaken as we head into the middle of the week. With the ridge weakening and cloud cover expected to be on the increase temperatures are not expected to be as warm but still well above normal and we will have chances for some showers after over a week of dry conditions. Record high temperatures: Albany NY: September 24th/Sunday: 87 degrees 1961 September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY: September 24th/Sunday: 86 degrees 1961 September 25th/Monday: 84 degrees 2007 Records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY: September 24th/Sunday: 91 degrees 1959 September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High level cirrus clouds from Jose are circulating across the region and will continue to do so as Jose lingers south of Cape Cod in weak steering currents. Some fog may form late at night where winds decouple and/or clouds thin out enough. IFR conditions possible at KGFL and MVFR at KPSF. Otherwise VFR conditions through the TAF period; 06Z/Friday. Calm to light northerly winds overnight will increase to 7 to 8 knots after sunrise with gusts into the teens at KPSF expected during mainly the afternoon hours. Outlook... Friday to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next several days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. RH values will fall to around 50 to 60 percent today. Somewhat drier air will arrive by Friday, with RH values falling into the 30 to 45 percent range. Winds today and Friday will be around 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to near 25 mph, highest over western New England and the mid-Hudson Valley.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast into next week as high pressure dominates. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...Thompson SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...Thompson/JPV HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV

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