Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 180900 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 400 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Seasonably cold and mainly dry weather is expected through today, except for some lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks. An upper level disturbance may bring additional snow showers tonight into early Friday for areas mainly north and west of Albany. Fair weather, with a gradual warming trend is expected for this upcoming weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 400 AM EST...Tranquil conditions with cold temperatures exist across the region early this morning, as a small area of high pressure has allowed for decoupling of winds and good radiational cooling conditions with a fresh snow pack in place. Temperatures are mainly in the single digits to near zero. Skies are mainly clear, although mostly cloudy conditions occurring across the western and southern Adirondacks due to moisture off Lake Ontario. These areas should remain mostly cloudy through much of the day, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. There will be increasing chances for lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks today, as the surface ridge of high pressure flattens out and westerly flow becomes better aligned in the low levels. Conditional lake-induced instability will yield mainly scattered snow showers over northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties, with greater coverage north and west of Old Forge closer to the Tug Hill. The lake effect activity should be light due to very low inversion heights of around 850 mb. So only dusting to an inch of snow is expected across this limited area. Elsewhere it will be dry with seasonably cold temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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A fast-moving and compact short wave trough will approach from the upper Great Lakes and move across the region tonight. The main forcing will be north of Albany, with limited moisture associated with this system. Will mention isolated to scattered snow showers with the passage of the disturbance, with the better chances for some minor accumulations across the western/southern Adirondacks. Areas from around the Capital District south will just see an increase in cloud cover. On Friday, it will be mainly dry in wake of the disturbance with gradually decreasing cloud cover. There still could be a few light lake effect/upslope snow showers over the western Adirondacks, with only a dusting in some spots. Temperatures will start to moderate, although with the fresh snow pack in place the moderation will be tempered on Friday with highs expected to be near normal in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Dry and tranquil conditions forecast for Friday night through Saturday night, with more of a moderation in temperature. Even overnight lows will start to warm to above normal readings Friday night, with even milder temperatures on Saturday as warmer air aloft moves in. Still, with the snow on the ground we will need decent mixing to allow temps to reach forecast highs, but this appears likely based on the expected pressure gradient with breezy westerly flow developing. Will mention upper 30s to mid 40s, which will allow for some snow melt to occur. Temperatures will drop back below freezing Saturday night with 20s in most areas, which is still well above normal for January.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Temperatures will close the weekend above normal, as high pressure will be ridging in from the Southeast and lower Mid Atlantic States. The mid and upper level flow will be zonal closing the weekend, as a cold front will be near the St Lawrence River Valley, and northern New England. Lows temps Sat night fall back into mid and upper 20s, and highs on Sunday will be about 10 degrees above normal with upper 30s to mid 40s in the valley areas and hills, and 30s over the mtns. A few rain or snow showers may graze the western Adirondacks with the front nearby and weak disturbances in the fast flow through Sunday. Sunday night through Monday...An upper level trough moves in the central Plains, and closes off. Diffluent flow sets-up upstream over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region. A warm front moves towards NY and PA with a slight to very low chance of snow showers Sunday night, though there are timing difference with the latest 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM and GEFS, and much of the night time period may be dry. A lead mid-level short-wave coupled with the warm front may produce spotty light pcpn into Monday, as the synoptic forcing looks rather weak, but some light rain or snow showers looks possible. The H500 low cuts off over the Midwest and western Great Lakes Region on Monday. Lows Sunday night should fall back into the mid 20s to around 30F before the clouds increase with the spotty light pcpn, and highs in the warm advection regime will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Monday night through Tuesday...The low to mid-level southerly flow increases ahead of the cutoff cyclone and its cold front, as the latest 12Z GEFS has +v-component wind anomalies /southerlies/ increase +2 to +3 standard deviations /STD DEVs/ above normal with PWATS increasing to 1 to 2 STD DEVS above normal. Some snow melt, and ice break is possible, as low temps will likely be above normal with mid and upper 30s in the valleys, and upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain. The cutoff cyclone moves northeast into southeast Ontario with some Gulf and Atlantic moisture moving into the forecast area ahead of the cold or occluded front with a potential weak wave moving along it. The ptype could be messy with rain mixed with sleet, then rain, and finally transitioning to snow late in the day depending on the frontal passage. We will have to monitor for any hydro issues especially with the present ice jams, as highs will be in the mid and upper 30s north and west of the Capital Region, and lower to mid 40s south and east. Total QPF may be in the half an inch to inch plus range Mon night into Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday...The cold or occluded front moves through with the pcpn ending as snow showers, as colder air filter in. In the strong cold advection, lows fall back into the teens to mid 20s. The threat for isolated to scattered snow showers continues in the cyclonic flow, especially along the favored westerly upslope areas of the western Adirondacks/southern Greens. High temps will be near normal for the mid week. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The coastal low which has developed off the southeast coast will deepen and move northeastward out to sea through the TAF period. In the meantime, high pressure will continue to build in from the south and west at the surface. While aloft an upper level disturbance will move over the region late tonight which may result in some snow showers mainly north and west of the Hudson River Valley after 06Z/Friday. Mainly VFR conditions will dominate. Mainly clear skies overnight with some lower level stratocumulus around 3-3.5 kft AGL expected to impact KALB/KPSF/KGFL later this morning. Cirrus clouds will stream in this evening. Light to calm winds overnight with a westerly flow developing Thursday and increasing to 9-13 knots with gusts mainly in the teens at KALB and KPSF during the day. Outlook... Thursday Night to Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place. A gradual warming trend will occur beginning this weekend, although the degree of warming is not expected to be as significant as what occurred last week. We will monitor trends in temperatures due to potential impacts on existing ice jams. In terms of precipitation, only some snow showers are expected through Friday, with generally dry conditions expected over the upcoming weekend. A period of mixed precipitation and/or rain is possible early next week, although details on precipitation types and amounts are uncertain at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

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