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000
FXUS61 KALY 161646
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1246 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring fair weather with mild
temperatures this afternoon, with clear and cool conditions tonight.
Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring increasing
clouds Wednesday, with some showers for Wednesday night through
Thursday along with cooler temperatures. An approaching cold front
will bring additional showers late Friday into Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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.UPDATE...As of 1245 PM EDT...A high amplitude ridge continues
to build in today from the Southeast/Mid Atlantic State and
Ontario, as a mid and upper level low slowly moves across the
Canadian Maritimes. A sfc high is building in from the northern
Great Lakes Region/s-central Ontario with strong subsidence for
mostly sunny/sunny skies. A few-scattered fair weather cumulus
have formed from the Capital Region/Berkshires north and east.

The 12Z KALY sounding has the top of the mixed layer to 750-725
hPa. With strong northwest flow and deep mixing expected we
could see some gusts in the 20-30+ mph range over the western
New England higher terrain and the Capital Region this
afternoon. It will be breezy and seasonably pleasant for mid-
April. We tweaked the winds based on observations with west to
northwest winds 10-18 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. Max temps
will be in the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s in the valleys with
mainly upper 40s to mid 50s over the hills/mtns. Overall, a nice
mid April afternoon for the forecast area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The combination of a dry air mass in place, mainly clear skies
and light to calm winds should promote excellent radiational
cooling tonight, particularly across the southern
Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley. Min temps may be slightly
cooler than this morning, with some pockets of lower/mid 20s
possible in these areas. Elsewhere, lows should range from the
upper 20s to mid/upper 30s.

Surface high pressure will shift off the New England coast
Wednesday, as low pressure slowly approaches from the west.
Model consensus favors upper level confluent flow persisting
across the northeast states, which should maintain high pressure
just off the New England coast, and also allow incoming upper
level shortwave to shear south and west of the region. Showers
should approach the mid Hudson Valley/SE Catskills and possibly
the far western Mohawk Valley prior to sunset, with showers then
slowly expanding north and east Wednesday night. High
temperatures Wednesday should reach the lower/mid 60s in valley
areas, and 55-60 across higher terrain areas. Lows Wednesday
night in the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s.

The showers may dissipate before reaching portions of southern
VT, the upper Hudson Valley and portions of the southern
Adirondacks, where it may remain dry into Thursday. Elsewhere,
expect at least spotty showers or light rain Thursday,
decreasing during Thursday night. With clouds and some showers,
temperatures should remain cool Thursday, mainly in the 50s,
with some areas where showers persist possibly barely reaching
50. The mildest temperatures may be the upper Hudson Valley,
southern Adirondacks into southern VT where showers may remain
limited and a few breaks of sun could develop. In these areas,
high temps may reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows Thursday
night generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The extended forecast period begins with an approaching cold front
from the eastern Great Lakes Region, Ohio Valley and the St Lawrence
River Valley that will increase clouds during the morning with
scattered to numerous showers in the afternoon into the early
evening. Enough low-level convergence occurs with the front with
modest upper level dynamics for light to moderate rainfall amounts.
The consensus for the best synoptic forcing and lift with the front
and approaching upper level trough based on the latest medium range
guidance and ensembles is in the late afternoon through the night
time period. Total rainfall looks to be in the couple of tenths to
half inch range. Highs on Friday will be near seasonal normals in
the upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys with upper 40s to mid 50s
over the hills and mtns.  Lows Friday night with the cold advection
with the first boundary will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over
the southern Dacks/southern Greens.

The first half of the weekend will be unsettled, as a broad mid and
upper level trough will be over eastern Canada and the Northeast.
The cyclonic vorticity advection with the upper level low and
secondary cold front will bring additional isolated to scattered
showers during the day with perhaps some snow showers over the
western Adirondacks at night.  850 hPa temps will run a little below
normal and with the brisk west/northwest flow expect max temps to
run below normal with 40s over the mtns and 50s over the rest of the
forecast area with some near 60F readings near KPOU.  A chilly night
is expected Sat night in the cold advection regime with lows in the
30s with some 20s over the higher terrain.  The second half of the
weekend will feature improving and drier conditions.  Mixed clouds
with sunshine and brisk conditions with below normal temps are
anticipated, as a broad sfc anticylone builds in from the
Plains and Great Lakes Region. Max temps will run below normal
by 5-10 degrees with 40s to 50s across the region.

The mid and upper level flow becomes less amplified and more zonal
Sunday night through Monday with moderating temps.  Max temps will
trend closer to seasonable readings with dry weather persisting.
Temps will be less chilly Monday night, as a warm front approaches
from a northern stream disturbance. Clouds increase Tuesday with
chances of showers expected in the afternoon.  We will also monitor
a southern stream coastal disturbance which looks unphased at this
time. The NBM temps for the end of the long term look seasonable for
late April with mid 50s to lower 60s for highs.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...FLying conditions are VFR at all terminals,
with mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through at least the
next 24 hours. There may be some patchy fog for a couple hours late
tonight/around sunrise, and have included a tempo group for this.
Moderate confidence on fog formation, but if fog does indeed form
then brief IFR conditions would be possible there. No fog is
expected at the other TAF sites tonight. Any early morning fog
quickly burns off by 12z at GFL. Then, all terminals see partly to
mostly clear skies with just a few passing mid-level clouds during
the day today and through the first half of tonight.

Winds will be light and variable through around sunrise, then
increase to around 4-7 kt from the west through mid-morning. From
mid to late morning through around sunset, westerly winds at around
10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt are expected. Gusts diminish after
sunset with sustained winds of 5-10 kt from the northwest, switching
to 5 kt or less from the north/northeast after around 03z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Main