Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 212004 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 404 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures could reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge strengthens overhead.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 400 PM EDT...Drier air in the process of working into the region from the north and east late this afternoon. Dewpoints will continue to drop into the 50s this evening. Still dealing with high level cirrus clouds along the far northwest periphery of Jose, but has been relatively thin allowing for filtered sunshine and decent warming. Despite cirrus around tonight, the drier air will result in cooler temperatures than recent nights with lows mainly in the 50s with some cooler 40s in the Adirondacks. As a result, not much fog development expected as well due to a slight northerly breeze persisting in most spots. Friday should feature plenty of filtered sunshine through high clouds similar to today, but expected less in the way of low stratus clouds due to drier air in place. Temperatures will once again be above normal but with lower humidity levels (dewpoints in the 40s and 50s). A northerly breeze around 5-10 mph will persist.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Tranquil conditions expected Friday night with a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft entrenched over the region. Continued dry air mass in place will result in low temps similarly cool to Thursday night. There could be more fog development though in favored locations near bodies of water, as winds speeds will be lighter than recent nights. The heat is on for the weekend, with temperatures expected to soar into the lower/mid 80s on Saturday and even warmer upper 80s expected on Sunday. The upper level ridge is forecast to strengthen further, with the 500 mb 590 decameter height contour forecast to be nearby. These anomalous 500 mb height values are +1 to +3 STDEV for late September. No precipitation is expected through the period with strong subsidence associated with the ridge. Low temps will be warmer Saturday night, as low level moisture starts to increase. More fog development will be possible as well, especially near bodies of water.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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With Hurricane Maria expected to take a similar path as Jose up the western Atlantic, we will continue to experience high pressure and subsidence, resulting in unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions, with high readings Sunday starting out in the near- record territory of upper 70 to upper 80s. The good news is the heat won`t last. A backdoor cold front will wash out over our region while Maria cools the land by dragging in ocean air off the North Atlantic on an easterly flow. The result will be daytime highs becoming cooler from one day to the next. By Thursday...highs will range from only the upper 60s to around 80 degrees, still much above normal. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s range Monday and Tuesday nights, and the mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday nights...some 15 degrees above normal. As far as precipitation goes, showers from Maria could reach as far as the southern Vermont, the Capital region, and the Catskills on south Tuesday night. A relatively dry cold front from the northwest will sweep through Wednesday night, but a Great Lakes trof could keep showers going in the western Adirondacks through Thursday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts on Hurricane Maria.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High level cirrus clouds from Jose are circulating across the region and will continue to do so as Jose lingers south of Cape Cod in weak steering currents. Some radiational fog should develop again late tonight at KGFL as is the norm during fall fog season. The winds will become light and variable to calm tonight. Winds on Friday expected to be from a northerly direction at 5 to 15 knots. Outlook... Friday to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures could reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge strengthens overhead.
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Relative humidity values will increase to around 80 to 100 percent tonight, then decrease to minimum values of 30 to 45 percent Friday afternoon. RH values Friday night will increase to between 80 and 100 percent. Winds tonight through Friday night will be northerly around 5 to 10 mph. Some higher gusts near 20 mph will be possible during the daylight hours, especially over the higher terrain. && .HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast well into next week as high pressure dominates. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record high temperatures will be possible Sunday and Monday. Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 24/25: Albany NY: September 24th/Sunday: 87 degrees 1961 September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY: September 24th/Sunday: 86 degrees 1961 September 25th/Monday: 84 degrees 2007 Records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY: September 24th/Sunday: 91 degrees 1959 September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV CLIMATE...IAA

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