Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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739 FXUS62 KCAE 090625 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 225 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Potential for strong to severe storms continues through Friday morning. Drier conditions return for the weekend before the next chance of precipitation arrives by midweek. Expect temperatures to be near average for much of the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest radar imagery indicates a couple of thunderstorm complexes to our west; one is currently the South Carolina Upstate/northeastern Georgia approaching the CSRA and western Midlands and the other complex is just entering Kentucky and Tennessee. These complexes are expected to affect the forecast area this morning. The first complex should be entering the local forecast area by around 3 am and continue eastward. This complex has had a history of producing severe weather as it has trekked across the southern states. There is some question; however, if this will hold together long enough to continue the severe threat. SPC mesoanalysis indicates there is 500-1000 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE and around 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Bulk shear values are around 40 kts as well. The hindering factor of reaching the instability is the nocturnal inversion. Despite the inversion, if the cold pool with the main line remains strong enough, severe threat continues through around daybreak, mainly for the northern half of the forecast area. At this time, the highest threat for severe weather is for the western portions of the forecast area. Damaging wind will be the main threat, with hail and tornadoes being a lesser threat. The second complex is forecast to move through the region around midday. There is higher confidence that this complex will make it through our area as this one is more tied to an approaching cold front as well as some daytime heating. Again, damaging winds will be the main threat with any storms that move through the region. SPC keeps an Enhanced Risk (3/5) of severe weather for the lower CSRA and a Slight Risk (2/5) for the rest of the forecast area. After this line passes, relatively quiet weather follows for the rest of the afternoon into the overnight with a slight chance of showers and storms returning late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... One more potentially active convective day Friday ahead of the advancing cold front. Guidance still seems to handle potential MCS moving through south-central GA and into southern SC during the morning hour and into the early afternoon. This may impact the southern CSRA the most if it does develop as forecast and moves through. Damaging winds would be the primary threat, with hail also being possible. Additional thunderstorm development possible late in the day over the northeastern Midlands as the main upper trough axis swings through. By Friday night, the drier air behind the front will finally be getting into the area, ending the rain chances for the weekend. Saturday will be dry and cooler behind the front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions look quite nice into Monday with high pressure across the area. Rain chances do increase Monday night through Wednesday ahead of a slow moving, closed mid/upper level low progged to push into the eastern CONUS by the middle of next week. Temperatures remain cooler through Tuesday, then warm back up by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the early morning hours with restrictions possible for the morning and early afternoon. Mainly mid to high level clouds have moved over the region. A cluster of showers and storms to the west are expected to move through the northern portions of the area, mainly affecting CAE and CUB. Thunderstorms may be observed at each of those terminals around 10z or so, but confidence is low that the activity will stay together to make it that far east. If it does, expect the typical thunderstorm related restrictions. A second cluster of showers and storms is expected to move through from about 15z through 20z. Confidence is a bit higher that thunderstorms will be nearby all TAF terminals during this time frame, but the exact timing still needs to be worked out. As confidence increases, will add appropriate tempo groups to reflect such. After this cluster moves through, the remainder of the TAF period is expected to remain dry and return to VFR. Background winds are expected to become breezy from the west to southwest from about 14z through 00z before diminishing. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Another day of convection and associated restrictions on Friday is possible. Drier weather with no restrictions likely for this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$