050
FXUS62 KFFC 112340
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024


...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet weather continues this afternoon with just some fair weather
cumulus dotting area skies. Early afternoon temperatures range from
the lower to mid 60s across the NE mountains to the mid 70s across
the S. A weak, reinforcing cold front will sweep into the N portion
of the state this evening. There may be enough instability and
forcing to squeeze out a few showers across the NE mountains.
Otherwise, another quiet night is on tap with forecast lows ranging
from the mid 40s in the NE to the upper 50s across portions of the
S.

High clouds will begin to increase across the area during the day
Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal system moving out of the S
Plains and MS Valley. High temperatures on Sunday will range from
near 70 across the NE mountains to the lower 80s across the S third
of the area. Some showers may arrive across the SW by late Sunday
night as clouds continue to thicken and lower. /SEC

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

At a glance:

-A week of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms through
the long term.

-A break in the rain is possible Wednesday and Thursday but it
returns in time for the weekend.

An unsettled and messy pattern is set to dominate most of the long
term. Sunday should be a pretty nice day with temps in the low 80s
for most of the CWA but a trough across the southern midwest will
kick off a few days of unsettled weather keeping temps on the cooler
side thanks to radiation cooling. By Tuesday the front will begin to
lift off to the NE and as the day heats up the GFS seems to suggest
we could generate in excess of 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE in the afternoon
with enough bulk shear to ensure we keep an eye on it. However,
there are still a number of questions in regards to whether or not
conditions will ultimately be favorable for more than a few
isolated thunderstorms. The diurnal cycle, timing, and any cap that
we`ll need to overcome given our rain cooled environment; as some
parts of our CWA could see up to two inches of rain. Tuesday may be
worth keeping in the back of your mind, but as of right now we`re in
a "wait and see" mind set.

We get a "break" in the weather Wednesday afternoon and Thursday,
although low end PoPs stick around across the northern and southern
ends of the CWA before another trough takes aim at us toward the end
of next week. Needless to say, we`re too far out to make any kind of
severe weather assessment. Right now the concern will remain on the
hydro side as another good shot of rain will likely stress our
already damp soils and swollen rivers.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Winds
will be NW at 5-9 kts this evening, decreasing to 5 kts or less
after 02-03Z, then increasing to 5-9 kts once again by 14Z on
Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  80  56  73 /   0   0   0  50
Atlanta         56  80  60  72 /   0   0  10  70
Blairsville     46  73  51  67 /  10   0   0  60
Cartersville    51  79  56  72 /   0   0  10  70
Columbus        58  83  62  76 /   0   0  20  70
Gainesville     53  78  57  70 /   0   0   0  60
Macon           56  81  60  74 /   0   0  10  70
Rome            50  80  56  73 /   0   0  10  70
Peachtree City  54  81  58  72 /   0   0  10  70
Vidalia         59  83  63  78 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...King